We didn’t know there was an Organic Beer Garden over the center field wall at ATT Park until Matt Kemp hit an O-by-the-way three run homer alongside it in the fourth inning. Folty had given up a solo homer in the 2nd but nothing since, their scheduled starter had failed to show up, his replacement Suarez had to drive himself to the Park from Reno where he claims to have a part time job at the new Elon Musk battery Gigafactory, Belt and fellow Braves killer Posey had both folded from fatigue when they saw it was us again tonight and were non-starters, SO…you would have to say things were looking good for the Bravos. Right? Up 3-1 after 5. What could go wrong? Get the drinks ready.
We nearly added in the 6th. Flowers 2 out double to the dreaded RF triangle, Peterson was walked, Dansby dollied a single to right, they had to send Flowers , they had to have him by twenty feet at the plate. Dansby apparently was a sartorial sensation downtown at midday sporting the latest Atlanta hi threads – the hair caused particular concern, several local fashionistas opining how recherchez it made the local coiffeuring look.
Braves still up 2 going to the 7th. Where are Belt and Posey – in Reno or hiding in plain sight? The whole evening might depend on it. Folty in trouble from a lead off double keeps his cool and pitches round it helped by a great throw from Adonis. We are reminded Belt has a stiff neck which apparently is enclosed in ice which refuses to melt, forget it. There are rumors though of a Posey sighting, please no.
Drama in the bottom of the 8th. Miraculous appearance by Belt, apparently from Lourdes, his neck still frozen. Folty goes full then gets him to take an exquisite breaking ball a mere foot outside- throughout the evening the width of the strike zone featured an additional 12 inches, on either side.. But Span doubled down the line and then there was a consummate confrontation with Folty approaching his 100th pitch and Angel Pagan, no Lourdes pilgrim he, representing the tying run. He eventually worked a walk and Snit showing no sentiment was out of the dugout like a shot.Enter our young tyro, Mauricio, showing his growing maturity by combining well with Freddie on a nasty, slow roller to get that crucial third out.
A great show by our own Basil Folty -Â 7.2IP/5H/1R/1ER/1W/6k…103 pitches…best for me was at no time, starting with the 2nd inning homer, did he look rattled, lose his cool. Maybe he grew up tonight. Good on ya.
JJ appeared and went about the bottom of the 9th. Again his whole manner in doing so fascinated. He seems mildly disinterested, bored even, with what is going on around him, its import and his leading role in it. Let it stay that way. Attempting to inject some life into the proceedings the Giants could not resist producing Posey alongside each of their three hitters. Subtle, eh? We’ll send him up after whoever of the three gets on. He’s the tying run you know. He got no further than the on deck circle you know when the final out was recorded by the still quiescent and affable Johnson. Posey’s wrenching sobs of frustration could be heard in the distant OBGarden, Giant’s fans in languid line to drown their sorrows. What a nice win.
@23 from the last thread, on August 19, the Brewers snapped a streak of 474 straight games without a start by a lefty: http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/08/19/196494596/brewers-start-southpaw-for-first-time-in-474-games
But apparently that was only the second-longest such streak in history. The Dodgers went 681 games without a lefty starter from September 24, 1992, to July 13, 1997.
I don’t know if anyone saw that inside the park homer hit by Melvin, Jr. against the Twins… but I think our #1 pick will be in jeopardy in the coming weeks. I am concerned.
@1: Wow, Alex. I would have never guessed that. Looks like the current streak pales in comparison.
I’m glad we called Remington.
Well done, blazon. Let’s score a score today.
Great recap, blazon.
I’d still be really interested to see what the offers were for JJ. Since returning from the DL, he’s had a 1.51 ERA in 35 IP. I’d really like to bring him back next year.
Interesting question:
If you’ll indulge me, I’d like to, whether justified or not, lump the Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons trades together. I just kinda have a feeling that Coppy had been going after Dansby even before he traded Andrelton. I think he would have at least had to have known that for the right deal, Dansby could have been had. After all, they traded for Dansby less than 30 days after trading Andrelton.
So 9 months later, knowing what we know now, would you trade Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb, and Chris Ellis for Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno? Like I said, I’d like to give Coppy some credit (but not much since he might have been wanting to go with Albies all along) that there was some diligence that Dansby was available less than 30 days before he was ultimately acquired. So based on how everything has played out, would you reverse the deal? Even with all of the ebbs and flows with each player, Aybar kept his 2015 numbers, as did Andrelton. Ellis made it to AAA but has struggled mightily. Newcomb continued to struggle with his command and has only had about 6-7 starts of sustained control. Briceno is a catcher that continues to do nothing. You can add in what the Braves traded Aybar for, but that, IMO, doesn’t steer the rudder much.
Is there even a 5% chance that anyone has changed their mind on the Simmons trade?
And if you want to lump the two trades together, you’d say we traded Andrelton, Shelby and Briceno for Newcomb, Ellis, Dansby, Blair, Inciarte and Aybar.
I was fine with the Andrelton trade and still am, but I think to be fair to the people who were against it, you can’t possibly lump the two trades together, because even if you knew you wanted Dansby instead of Andrelton, nothing about acquiring Dansby required the SPECIFIC deal we got for Andrelton. And that’s coming from a guy who really likes Newcomb as a return for Simmons.
@8
I don’t want to quite take it that far. Even Dave Stewart knows the Shelby trade was a bad trade, so I did want to keep the returns separate. But you’re right. Dansby is irrelevant because he didn’t influence the specific deal.
Some that hated the Simmons trade felt like he would develop as a hitter. And he still hasn’t. Some people that liked the trade may be discouraged the Ellis nor Newcomb have not reached the majors yet. And Aybar didn’t rebound to 2014 and yet stayed at his 2015 production. So there’s some reason why people might have changed their minds. At some point, the emotional loss of not getting to watch Andrelton nightly has to subside.
And to answer the question you DID ask, no. There’s no way I’d trade Newcomb, Ellis et al for the right to pay Andrelton Simmons $47m. We have Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies now.
For what it’s worth, Coppolella has said publicly that he did not have the Swanson trade in mind when he made the Simmons trade.
Sorry, thought I could get 10 in before you replied.
I think the Braves liked Andrelton just fine, but looked at what pays in arbitration (hint: not dwar) and wondered why in the world they should pay Andrelton $52m at the time, when Ozzie would be here in a year or two.
That they landed Swanson and are able to hedge their bets on Ozzie now (ie, he doesn’t have to be a world class shortstop, he can just be really good at 2B) just makes the Andrelton trade that much safer.
Besides, like I said, I really like Newcomb. You usually have to lose alot of games and pick in the Top 5 to get a guy like Newcomb.
I’d feel better if Newcomb had could string together those starts, but I don’t think it would beat an infield of Swanson, Simmons, Albies and Freeman.
A whole Maine lobster and boiled spinach is a great meal, doesn’t mean I’d ask for boiled spinach.
Oh boy, is it going to be fun to relitigate the Andrelton trade!
Swanson at 3B, Simmons and his salary, and no Newcomb or Ellis would be worth significantly less than Swanson at SS, Newcomb, Ellis, and the money you’re not paying to Simmons, IMO.
I’m going to leave it at strongly disagreeing on that front.
I am curious if I should keep linking Andrelton’s plays on here. I just think they are fun to watch and figure people here would like to see them, but it isn’t part of a larger argument. It’s tough to follow him now that he’s on the West Coast.
Please keep linking Simba’s plays. He still makes plays other shortstops never contemplate. I’m over the trade. What’s done is done, but Andrelton’s still the best.
Will do. I’m still wrapping my head around yesterday’s double play.
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1103974683/laadet-simmons-knocks-down-liner-turns-two-in-6th/?game_pk=448794
Open to interpretation while watching it, but he seemed pretty content waiting for that ball to hit the ground. I could go for three minutes of challenge angles/slow-mo’s watching that play.
@7, I reject the premise. JJ said it well enough @8.
Of course nobody would trade Newcomb for Simmons. What can we do with another shortstop? That doesn’t mean Newcomb was the best you could get for Simmons. And even if we were going to trade Simmons because we could get Dansby, we didn’t have to trade him exactly when we did for exactly what we did. The deals were unrelated. It wasn’t a three-team trade.
As a disclaimer: I don’t think I ever hated the Simmons trade. I was underwhelmed by the return for a player I think can possibly be a hall-of-famer. I expected to trade him because of Albies and the timing of the rebuild.
I miscommunicated the idea. Of course we don’t need another shortstop.
Has the value shifted in a different direction? Has the value of the individual players changed in the last 9 months? Has your interpretation of the deal changed in any way? That’s what I was driving at.
RE: Video links
I’m much more of a fan of Andrelton Simmons, Highlight Reel than I am Andrelton Simmons, The Player. The plays he is able to make have been absolutely amazing, and I love watching them. It’s still weird seeing him in a different uniform.
Don’t look now but the braves only have a game and a half lead on the twins for first pick. I love seeing us win but in this lost season I’d rather see us get the #1. Feeling conflicted
If Newcomb is as close to as good as scouts say, it’s a good deal for us.
So, I’m 30 years old, my business is running well, my wife works all the time, I don’t have any children, the Braves are terrible, and college football season hasn’t started yet. So I’ve taken an intellectual liking to the rebuild and how this business is being rebuilt. One of the things that frustrates the heck out of me is not knowing what these players are worth.
When it’s 2013, you’re winning 96 games, and your team has several very good players and almost no one on the roster producing a negative WAR (looking at you, Bossman), you’re just not thinking about the organization analytically top-to-bottom. I don’t remember anybody particularly concerned that the farm was getting trashed. But we were ending a string of 3 years where half of our position players shifted from being positive assets to negative assets. Chipper retired, B-Mac left for free agency, and Uggla and BUpton were albatrosses. And during that time, a historical bullpen fell from the sky and two of our best starters were not elite prospects (Medlen and Beachy). There just wasn’t much to think about except “we’re good, we’ve been good for 20 years, and I’m inclined to think we will always be good”.
But the rebuild is almost fun (don’t worry, I don’t have Stockholm Syndrome) because you can see the team being rebuilt from the ground up. What’s happening in A-ball is important. How much a FA dollar is worth is important. And what your current assets are worth is important, which is why I wanted to try this exercise. There are very few slam dunks on the roster that have significant value, and we’re not going to trade any of them, most likely. Instead, we have dozens of players that have varying degrees of positive value and almost every single one of them could be available for the right price. But how can you identify the price of you don’t know the value of your currency? I’m attempting to value each player on a scale of 1-10 based on what value they have on the trade market. A few things to note:
1) It doesn’t matter if a player is untouchable or whether it “makes sense” to trade the player. We’re not trading Freddie Freeman, but he still has a value. Some of these prospects, based on where they are on the developmental timeline, should not be traded at this juncture. However, they still have value.
2) I attempted to value the prospects by balancing their ceiling, their current performance, the level they are in the minors, and the scarcity of the resource on the trade market (I’m down on middling right-handed starters, but I’m bullish on power position players).
3) This was meant to take into consideration their salary and controllability, and that heavily influences the value of, say, Ender Inciarte.
4) “CASH” refers to the at least $40M I think we have available to spend. The value of “12” refers to how much talent you could get on the free agent market as it relates to how talent is valued on the trade market.
5) In theory, all of these numbers are plug-and-play with each other. For example, to acquire someone with Ozzie Albies’ value, you would have to trade Jace Peterson and Lucas Sims. Agree or disagree, but that’s the idea.
Click the link to take a look:
http://goo.gl/YhRZGr
Sorry, couple more things to note:
-It would be wise to exempt the truly elite players from this valuation system. Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, etc. are just so good that a “10” may not do them justice, but you have to set a cap on the scale, and I chose 1-10. Those guys, if you truly wanted to give them values, would be like a “15” because of how truly scarce they are.
-Distance to the majors was also weighed in valuing prospects. Aside from Soroka, I didn’t want to over-value a player based on ceiling. These guys in the GCL and Danville are just too far from the majors to truly give them too much.
Cal Ripken just interviewed Vin Scully. It was one of the best interviews about baseball I ever saw
Aaron Blair still sucks.
Off the top of my head Rob, I think you have Folty too low, Mallex too high, Newcomb and Allard too low. Not by tons mind you, but just a few tweaks.
It’s interesting to think about that list from the perspective of “who would you trade and who do you have to keep?” I’m not trading any of the high-ceiling pitchers yet. I’d trade Mallex though. He’s a 4th OF at best to me. Inciarte has won me over.
26 – Yep.
Reports were stating he was hitting 93-94 at Gwinnett. Been 89-91 today
Puig is on waivers. We have first shot. I’m sure we’ll pass, but it’s tons less risk than the Olivera experiment.
@29
Yasiel Puig
it’s primarily a question of our mental fatigue
these Havana prima donnas
not emerging lately with an abundance of honnas.
Yasiel Puig, freed,
bat speed?
measure it
discard or treasure it.
Freddie Freeman is so good right now.
I’d definitely take a flier on Puig. What’s the worst that could happen?
Man, I’m so glad we have Anfernee Seymour instead of Chevanka. I’m so glad we’re watching Brandon Cunniff. Sweet.
Considering Chevanka would have been team-controlled for several seasons for very little, what are the odds that Seymour and that other guy even matches half of Chevanka’s value?
Anyone still believe Blair is an MLB pitcher? Like ever?
In 12 years, Aaron Blair will look a bit like Big Handsome, but without a successful MLB career.
They say, “I’d rather pull back a stallion than kick a mule.” Aaron Blair, it really appears, is a mule.
@33 are you seriously criticizing the Cervenka trade? He’s a 26 year old career minor leaguer with a decent fastball/slider combo and bad control – he was drafted in 2008 and didn’t see any major league action until this season, with the Braves (who obviously had nothing to lose in giving him an audition). Cervenka isn’t worth much and Braves fans should be happy they got some decent prospects (Seymour and Mader) back in return. The odds aren’t very high Cervenka is going to be a productive major leaguer for long – and hey, check it out! The Marlins sent him back to the minors a couple days ago.
As annoying as it is to see Cunniff pitch, it’s pretty churlish to dock the Braves for trading away fungible relievers for prospects at this stage of the rebuild.
Chevanka is the one guy that I wish we held onto. He was more than just a flash in the pan like Dario Alvarez, he wasn’t costing anything, he wasn’t going to cost anything for a really long time, and it was clear he had turned a corner. I don’t care what he did in 4 1/3 IP with Miami. That’s their business. Where would we have been if we had said in 2009, “Ya know, that O’Flaherty guy? He was just some Rule 5 pickup, and while he’s had a few good months for us, he was terrible for years with Seattle. We should try to get a couple A-ball stiffs for him.” Sometimes guys turn corners. If Anfernee Seymour and Michael Mader are lucky, they might have some of the value that Cervenka will probably have over the next few years.
Seymour is 21 and can’t hit in A ball. Mader, when we traded for him, was 22 in A+ and not particularly impressive. Cervenka is just as good of a bet as them to give 3-4 good seasons of positive value at near the league minimum, and if you keep saying “you should trade good players because you’re at this stage of the rebuild”, you’ll stay at this stage of the rebuild.
I’m not going to lose any sleep over Hunter Cervenka, but cheap lefty relievers who are pitching well at the big league level are pretty helpful.
Blair projects zero confidence and had logged crowd-pleasing numbers of 1.75 WHIP and 1.00 Twitter meltdowns since his earlier demotion, so he was trending in the wrong direction. So it goes. Sometimes when you play “Let’s Make a Deal,” you choose Door No. 3 and get a pair of jumbo-size loafers made out of ground chuck.
Rob – there’s no evidence that Hunter Cervenka “turned a corner” or even that he’s a better pitcher than Dario Alvarez. Cervenka has a near-6 BB/9IP this season and his ERA is artificially suppressed due to a low BABIP and HR/FB. Cervenka has a career 4.56 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in the minors (!) with 389 Ks in 383 IP compared to 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for Alvarez, with 464 Ks in 377.1 IP. One of those guys is clearly better, and it’s Alvarez. You’re mistaking a hot/lucky streak for Cervenka as “turning a corner”; there’s no evidence he can sustain a 3.5 ERA (which you’d like to see from a bullpen guy) and as such, he’s pretty fringy.
Mader is pitching well in the short time since he joined the Braves’ AA team and Seymour has some impressive tools (though he hasn’t learned to hit much yet). Those guys both have massively higher ceilings than Cervenka, and when you’re the Braves and you badly need to hit on some prospects, you roll the dice on a trade like that. There are always castaways with live arms to try out who are roughly as good as Cervenka; few work out but then again I strongly disagree with you that Cervenka can be counted on going forward at all. Want to crush on a legit power lefty in the bullpen? Get yourself an Ian Krol jersey.
I share your concern about competing next year, Rob, but this year is already lost. Every single year, some reliever comes off the scrap heap like you’re talking about, so I have confidence it will happen next year, too. If Miami wanted to give us a couple of minor leaguers for him this season, I say let them. Holding onto fungible relievers is just not something a team that’s fighting to not have the worst record in baseball needs to worry about.
Gorkys!
I’m good with all of this. Cervenka was younger and pitched 4 times more effective major league innings than Alvarez, but Chevanka is not worth getting too worked up over.
@43
There’s a lot of very good LH relief coming that will make the decision to trade Cervenka not matter. However, I’m not a pro-Cervenka guy and think he was destined for mediocrity.
Rob…geez. You’re the only one complaining about trading away replacement level vets. Seymour is actually a decent get and Dylan Moore is a better get. Demeritte was the real prize. Overall Coppy did very well flipping our garbage for some interesting though unacclaimed prospects.
Recap is up.