105 thoughts on “Official WAG thread”

  1. i refuse to project alex gonzalez for i’m holding out for a more qualified SS to be brought to Atlanta.
    Uggla: .272/.365/.555
    Chipper: .281/.412/.447
    Heyward: .297/.413/bajillion
    Prado: with Mac
    Mccann: with Mac again
    Freeman: .270/.342/.436

  2. Dan Uggla: .278/.370/.530 35HR
    Chipper Jones: 120 G, .274/.433/.420
    Jason Heyward: 147 G, .290/.420/.580 25 HR
    Martin Prado: .294/.355/.405 130 runs
    Brian McCann: .312/.410/.525 30 HR(NL MVP)
    Alex Gonzalez: .250/.290/.420 15 HR
    Nate McLouth 150 games.265/.345/.420(NL Come back player of the year)
    Freddie Freeman .265/.365/.400 15HR

    Tim Hudson 2.97 16-5 130K
    Derek Lowe 3.94 14-9 135K
    Jair Jurrjens 3.10 17-9 145K
    Tommy Hanson 2.79 22-6 215k (NL Cy Young)
    Mike Minor 4.10 10-9 110K

    Braves 107-55 Win the NL East (playoff predictions later)

  3. 2011 ZiPS Projections
    Uggla 559 88 145 28 1 29 87 71 144 4 .292 .346 .469 116 -5

  4. smitty…
    shoot for the moon, baby! i’m guessing Fredi’ll win manager of the year as well. i know it’s dumb, but your predictions gave me goosebumps.

  5. Mac, Ryan, Smitty – why such a lower slg% for Prado? last 3 seasons he’s put up .461, .464, .459.

    Uggla – .270/.355/.530
    Chipper – .265/.410/.440
    Heyward – .295/.405/.515
    Prado – .310/.360/.465
    Bmac – .280/.380/.475
    Nate – .245/.335/.400
    AAG – .245/.295/.410
    Freeman – .270/.355/.435

  6. @5

    I think Pradp playing a bunch of different possitions may loser some of his numbers a little bit, but the numbers I threw out there would make this one of the best Braves teams ever.

  7. did some research – Bill James projections

    Freeman – .282/.335/.446
    Uggla – .263/.352/.483
    AAG – .241/.291/.405
    Chip – .288/.401/.481
    Prado – .305/.356/.446
    Nate – .246/.335/.416
    Heyward – .295/.411/.493
    BMAC – .280/.366/.493

  8. In which Brian McCann goes off..

    McCann: .292/.403/.529 with 32 bombs.

    Chipper: .272/.381/.401 with 14 hr, 104 games.

    Uggla: .257/.364/.493 with 37 hr.

    Prado: .311/.362/.432 with 12 hr.

    Heyward: .306/.418/.511 with 23 hr.

  9. All you guys predicting a gaudy slugging percentage for Uggla would do well to look at his career numbers and the PF’s for Turner and Sun Life Joe Robbie Pro Player Park. If he gets past .500, it will be quite the feat.

  10. Chipper Jones: 135 G, .321/.428/.486

    And a funny thought I had this morning: maybe our new infield coach can fix Uggla’s defense… oh wait.

  11. I completely agree he hits well here csg, and am sanguine about him outperforming his ZiPS projection – but I have to think the other 725 games in his career count for something.

  12. Won’t the park factors help his numbers? I did a quick Google, and every park factor I found has the Marlins stadium, by whatever name, depressing home runs. I found some old handedness park factors, and it’s even worse for righties.

    Sure it’s more of a “hitter’s” park overall, but that seems to come from doubles and, mostly, walks. It’s murder on HRs, especially RH HR. Since Uggla gets a heavy part of his SLG from HR, it’s reasonable to think he’ll improve on his career numbers.

  13. I like sdp’s projection best…

    And on the internet and the death civil discourse from last thread…

    I would posit that there is something to the idea that the internet seems to have killed civil discourse in much the way that digital cameras have killed the art of photography, in that they haven’t. Digital cameras (and sites like flickr) haven’t killed the art of photography, but because it has made it easier for any and all of us to share our pictures there seems to be a glut of crap. But, that’s not because there aren’t people who can, and do, put out fantastic photographic art any more. It’s because the good is “lost” in the bad to some degree. To compare it to film and television you could argue that because youtube is filled with crap (and people spend a LOT of time watching those videos) that they are having a detrimental effect on moving picture based story-telling. But, by youtube providing a means of mass sharing of people without the resources of a TV network that means that you can enjoy creative endeavors like The Guild that you would otherwise not have had the opportunity to experience. Likewise, while there are certainly “flame wars” and an abundance of non-constructive dialogue on the internet, it also has provided a forum for a large amounts of useful conversation and interaction that would, and could, not have happened otherwise.
    I can say with relative assurance that there have been thousands of really horrible bands from New York, but we don’t say New York is the death of good music. We recognize that by putting that many people together there are going to be a lot of people of marginal (or non-existant) talent and skill that come out of that, and a few pretty good ones, and a handful of geniuses. Likewise, the internet has billions(?) of people on it, and you’re going to find a plethora of really awful opinions and writing you might otherwise have never been subjected to. But, the flip side is that you will also have the opportunity to read some really great writing and have some fantastic and enriching conversations you would otherwise have missed out on as well.

  14. Right. The internet doesn’t kill civil discourse. But it levels the playing field, and because in any realm 90 percent of everything is crud — 90 percent of bands suck, 90 percent of internet comments are worthless, and so on — the internet makes it even easier for the 90 percent of crap to drown out the 10 percent of awesome. And it makes it all the more important for those few beachheads of civility, like Braves Journal, to maintain their civility, because the trend is always toward the desertification of discourse.

  15. Note: Apparently you’ll also be subjected to people like me who have an unreasonable propensity for putting “Likewise,” and “But,” at the beginning of far too many sentences this morning… and an inability to put in a friggin paragraph break every 3000 syllables.

  16. do you guys think the braves could pull off a trade for dexter fowler? he’ll be arb eligible in 2012 and, as a switch hitter, he hits lefties much better (if i’m not mistaken, he hasnt been switch hitting his whole career). he’s also a georgia native, and colorado needs pitching…

  17. When I think of loss of civility, I have to give part of it to “Crossfire” on CNN. People trying first to talk, and then to holler, over one another.

    For political discourse, I believe we should readopt the “Firing Line” style.

    Mark Green to Bill Buckley (made up, but in character):

    But Mr. Buckley, the increase in spending on improving the lives of the less fortunate contributes to increasing the wealth of all Americans.

    Buckley to Green:

    Mr. Green, that is a specious argument which is easily refuted…..

    Now THAT is a good civil discourse.

  18. The internet probably reflects the lowering of discourse rather than causing it. ON the other hand, I have been reading a lot of American history from the 19th century and it seems as if this arcadian world of civil discourse never existed. The internet and mass media just focuses more attention on it. People have been yelling and screaming at each other forever. It was worse back then even; people were rioting over disagreements. One group that was sponsoring a showing of Macbeth attacked another that was also sponsoring Macbeth because that group brought in a an actor from England. That’s even worse than Philly fans!

  19. I’m pretty sure we could acquire Fowler; the Rockies usually have a revolving-door outfielder, Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith both have roster spots, and Ryan Spilborghs is a much better hitter than Fowler.

    The thing that gives me pause is that both UZR and TotalZone absolutely despise his defense over the past two years.

    On the other hand, it’s still a smallish sample — he’s played 256 games, and less than 2000 defensive innings — and TotalZone and UZR both agree that he’s had one mediocre defensive year and one awful defensive year, but they disagree about which was which. Moreover, his fan reputation doesn’t appear to be as bad: the Fangraphs Fan rating marks him as merely slightly below average.

    Still, he’s a crappy hitter — career .220/.308/.334 away from Coors — and at best a mediocre to below-average defender. We need a guy who can really flash the glove, like Tony Gwynn Jr. or Cameron Maybin. Unless the stats are really off, Fowler just profiles as a 4th outfielder.

  20. AAG, where did you get those numbers? Fowler’s career line is .259/.351/.401

    edit: nevermind, I see its his away splits

  21. @23, that’s a fair point. Reading newspaper editorials and political speeches from the past will quickly disabuse one of any quaint notions of antebellum civility. But that really wasn’t the kind discourse I was alluding to. Rather, the default position on how we address someone with a different position than ours in everyday life seems to have changed pretty dramatically over the last 20 years to me, and the willingness to use what we once called “fightin’ words” or imply violence at the drop of a hat is what I find disconcerting.

  22. You’re not gonna be laughing at me, I’m gonna be laughing at all of you

    Prado- .302/.365/.440 12 HRs
    Heyward- .295/.410/.550 30 HRs
    Chipper- .305/.390/.440 20 HRs
    McCann- .280/.365/.490 27 HRs
    Uggla- .260/.365/.499 32 HRs
    McLouth- .255/.325/.412 12 HRs
    AGon- .250/.310/.390 14 HRs
    Freeman- .275/.360/.440 16 HRs

    Hudson- 17-10 3.20 ERA 125 Ks
    Lowe- 14-8 3.88 ERA 145 Ks
    Hanson- 18-9 2.75 ERA 225 Ks
    Jurrjens- 14-9 3.68 ERA 180 Ks
    Minor- 11-8 4.25 ERA 160 Ks

    Kimbrel- 38 SVs, 1.98 ERA, 112 Ks in 73 innings


  23. Uggla – .265/.360/.520
    Chipper – .280/.405/.440
    Heyward – .285/.410/.530
    Prado – .310/.355/.460
    Bmac – .290/.360/.480
    Nate – .255/.345/.420
    AAG – .250/.295/.420
    Freeman – .280/.340/.450

    As with last season, next year’s offense should score plenty of runs due mainly to high OBP, especially if Chipper and Heyward can stay healthy. Moreover, if McLouth bounces back towards his career norms and Freddie shows that he can hang with major league pitching (which I think he will) then we’ll have a deep, dangerous lineup.

    BMac could have a huge RBI season next year – assuming Mac is in the cleanup spot he’ll often be coming to bat with one or more runners on base and Uggla batting behind him. He’s had seasons of 92, 93 and 94 RBI, and I’ll predict 100+ this season.

    Also: looking at the numbers, I am struck by the similarity of the offensive profiles of Dan Uggla and Pat Burrell.
    Burrell (career): .254 / .362 / .475 / .837
    Uggla (career): .263 / .349 / .488 / .837

    In an alternate universe, what would have been the effect of signing Burrell instead of Uggla? Seems like the offensive contribution would be a wash. Defensively, you’re comparing Uggla (2B) + Prado (LF) vs. Prado (2B) + Burrell (LF). Guesstimating based on their Ultimate Zone Rating scores from past years, I get -8 + 1 = -7 (Uggla scenario) or -3 + -10 = -13 (Burrell scenario). It’s a little hard to assign a number to Burrell’s defense; he’s rated as bad as -20 in a season before but had a good UZR last year; I’m going to assume that next season he’ll revert to his standard below-average fielding. In summary, Uggla’s defense at 2B is bad but should be several runs better than Burrell’s in LF, and Prado’s defense will be improved by moving from the more demanding 2B to LF. With any luck, Prado’s defense in LF will be good enough that there will be no need for a late-inning defensive replacement (like Burrell would need).

    Having Uggla leaves the Braves more flexibility, since that means Prado can play 3B as needed. Chipper is not a good bet to play more than 120 – 125 games this year, there will be several hundred ABs for a backup 3B. With Uggla at 2B, Prado can shift over to 3B for those games. If we had Burrell, presumably those ABs would be taken by Infante. Prado is clearly a superior option to Infante; his defense at 3B is at least as good, and he’ll probably best Omar’s OPS by about 75 points next year.

    Compensation-wise, Uggla is going to make ~$10M this season in arb, unless the Braves sign him to an extension (I hope they hold off on this; I’d rather we take the compensation picks than pay Uggla 4/48 or something). Not sure what Burrell will take – maybe 2/18?

    Overall: I think the Braves are better off with Uggla than Burrell, especially if Pat the Bat wants more money than I’m guessing.

  24. @25, that looks very likeable at Petco – ~115OPS+, but not so much at Fla – ~102. Do you know where these were run for?

  25. With any luck, Prado’s defense in LF will be good enough that there will be no need for a late-inning defensive replacement (like Burrell would need).

    I’m guessing Prado will see a lot of LF/3B games, and we’ll sub in Schafer or Young for Chipper.

  26. Heyward .412/.490/.590 with 68 HR

    Is it even possible to hit 68 HRs without breaking the .600 SLG barrier?

  27. Burrell and Uggla, have a passing similarity in career numbers, but to me, really aren’t comparable at this stage of their respective careers. Uggla is a much better bet to exceed his career averages, and it will be tough for Burrell to match his, given the 4 year age difference.

  28. I really hope the Braves give Matt Young a chance to be the Braves’ defensive replacement OF next season. From what I understand, he could pan out to be Gregor Blanco-ish, perhaps with a more doubles power. That would certainly meet the Braves’ needs and fit in the budget.

  29. @34

    It’s a bit of a stretch, but yes:

    PA – 1386
    AB – 1202
    H – 495
    2B – 0
    3B – 0
    HR – 68
    BB – 184

    Voila, .412/.490/.590. He’ll need some help from the rest of the lineup.

  30. @34: A season line of .412/.490/.590 with 68 HR is only possible if Heyward has 1,150 ABs with 406 1B and 68 HR (no 2B or 3B). He would also have to walk 175 times. Seems pretty doable to me!

  31. @34, what you don’t know is that there will be a four-day 300 inning game in the middle of the season.

  32. @34, what you don’t know is that there will be a four-day 300 inning game in the middle of the season.

    I stand corrected.

  33. So, Mike @ 30 – I guess this means the Braves win 120 games.

    From your fingertips to God’s inbox.

  34. I was thinking more 130, but 120 would probably get the job done.

    I might be a bit optimistic on some of those…

  35. I have to admit I saw the title of this post and was expecting pictures of Derek Lowe’s wife to be on here. Very disappointing.

  36. Spike,

    I agree with you but I think the difference is that people often don’t even know people that think differently from them. On this blog, I know there are lots of people with different political and social views, but in real life, more people are living in areas that are homogenous in terms of social/political positions. So, it’s easier to demonize people who disagree with you when you don’t actually know anyone like that. The internet only exacerbates that because everyone is essentially anonymous and faceless. Even here, people often get into fairly nasty arguments over baseball; I can just imagine what would happen if we started talking politics.

  37. @48,

    That is why it is banned here. I love the baseball debates, I can watch cable new if I want to see politics crap. This is like an escape.

  38. Man, this Uggla deal has everyone feeling optimistic. :-D

    Prado: .315/.360/.440
    Heyward: .270/.380/.460
    Chipper: .290/.410/.450
    Uggla: .265/.355/.490
    McCann: .270/.375/.480
    AAG: .255/.295/.420
    Freeman: .275/.340/.440
    McLouth: .285/.365/.455

    So I guess I see another very solid all-around offense that doesn’t have too many huge bright spots. I think Freeman is going to struggle badly at times but he’ll balance it with some good streaks, too. He’s still really young, folks, and he doesn’t have Heyward’s tools. I’m not predicting the power surge from Heyward that a lot of you are seeing. He’ll still hit some HRs and doubles, but nothing crazy. Other than that, I guess I’m pegging most players to return to their career norms. The only crazy thing I’m doing is predicting a good BABIP year for McLouth. There’s no real reason to predict that. I just hope we get some production out of him. :-) Also, I think the walks McCann added last year are real and will continue, with him hitting a few more HRs than he did last year. I’m not really sure what to do with Prado. He’s still young and potentially growing. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a really good breakout-type year from him, given the injury crap he had last year.

    Things I could be talked into changing relatively easily: more SLG for Prado, less BA for Chipper, less SLG for AAG, more anything for McCann. Also, I guess I’d be more likely to buy a bump in power from Heyward than a .300 BA for next year. Man. I just don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s still so young, but he seemed like he was cruzing last year when he was healthy. 2011 is going to be an exciting year!

  39. You know what’s going to be great about next year? Melky Cabrera will NOT be on the team!


  40. An argument for adding another Wild Card team is that it dilutes the power of the big money teams a little.

    A huge payroll may not by you a championship, but it sure can buy you a bunch of wins in the regular season.

    Other than that, I can’t think of a good reason to add another WC team.

  41. @50, as a non-tender, Barmes would have been available to anyone, not just Houston, and there certainly would have been other offers. All things being equal, would YOU choose Houston over anyplace other than say Pittsburgh?

  42. 56 — I was surprised to see it.

    Neyer brought up Heyward being left off of a ballot for ROY and wondered why there wasn’t outrage like last year when Law left Carpenter off his CY ballot.

  43. Five years from Colon over Santana in a blowout to Felix over Sabathia. That’s a pretty radical shift.

  44. Hernandez: Ken Rosenthal, Fox; Amalie Benjamin, Boston Globe; Michael Silverman, Boston Herald; Erik Boland, Newsday; Joe Smith, St. Petersburg Times; Mark Gonzales, Chicago Tribune; Lynn Henning, Detroit News; John Lowe, Detroit Free Press; Sam Mellinger, Kansas City Star; Joe Posnanski, SI.com; Joe Christensen, Minneapolis Star Tribune; John Shipley, St. Paul Pioneer Press; Hirokazu Higuchi, Chunichi Shimbun (LA); Tim Brown, Yahoo Sports; Jorge Ortiz, USA Today; Ray Ratto, At Large (SF/Oakland); Kirby Arnold, Everett Herald; Larry Stone, Seattle Times; Richard Durrett, At Large (Dallas-Fort Worth); Anthony Andro, Fort Worth Star Telegram; Morgan Campbell, Toronto Star.

    Price: Mel Antonen, USA Today; Tony Fabrizio, Tampa Tribune; Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune; Chris Assenheimer. Elyria (OH) Chronicle.

    Sabathia: George King, New York Post; Bob Elliott, Toronto Sun; Sheldon Ocker, Akron Beacon Journal.

    (Source: USA Today’s website.)

    St. Pete and Newsday both picked Felix. This shift is nuts. This is the beginning of the end of pitching wins as a statistic with any relevance.

  45. This is the beginning of the end of pitching wins as a statistic with any relevance.

    You say that like it’s a bad thing.

    besides, it will make Bill Conlin and Murray Chass et al apoplectic, which is ALWAYS a step in the right direction.

  46. @56

    Slightly better HR rate at Turner, slightly lower 1B and BB rate. ZIPS .259/.346/.469 with 29 homers and 87 RBIs. Fewer HRs is due to projected playing time, as Uggla has been unusually injury-free.

  47. I’m not crazy about putting Prado in LF so Uggla can play second, I’d do it the other way around. But I do like that despite having mediocre-bad defense all over the diamond, we are going to have guys at every position who have spent almost the entirety of their careers at their respective positions. I think there’s something to be said for that.

    The way the roster shakes out right now, assuming that Joe Mather is going to be part of it, and assuming that we carry seven relievers I see three openings. One needs to be used for a true CF, I’m still holding out hope that we can pick up an impact CF, maybe a guy who can bat leadoff forcing Nate into the bench spot, but failing that, I’d be happy with someone who can just provide some legitimate OF defense from all three spots and maybe pinch run here and there. We are also going to need a backup infielder, I have similar criteria for this player, I want someone who can play short and second at a plus defensive level, anything we get offensively is a bonus. The third and final roster spot is really up in the air, I guess as far as pinch hitters go Eric Hinske is a strong choice, but given that we’re running with a Rookie Lefty First Baseman, it wouldn’t be bad to have a right handed bench stick. Barb Cabizares continues to rake, is right-handed and would be a good choice for financial reasons.
    I suppose it’s difficult to commit to this final bench-stick-with-some-pop spot until we’ve figured out who our second CF is going to be.

  48. Prado: .300/350/460
    Heyward: .310/420/545
    Chipper: .260/350/420, 105 games
    McCann: .285/365/475
    Uggla: .250/340/470
    Freeman: .260/315/420
    AAG: .240/280/380
    McLouth: .240/320/410

    Slash stats for pitching are HR rate per 9/BB per 9/K per 9…

    Hanson: 0.8/ 2.4/ 7.5 in 215 IP
    Jurrjens: 0.7/ 3.2/ 6.5 in 205 IP
    Hudson: 0.8/ 2.9/ 5.0 in 190 IP
    Lowe: 1.0/ 3.5/ 6.0 in 185 IP
    Minor: 1.2/ 2.8/ 8.0 in 160 IP

    The Braves will have a stronger offense next season (barring injuries to players other than the inevitable Chipper ones).

    The bullpen will be weaker, but there will be more innings logged by the starters to make up for it.

  49. McCann: .280 BA, 22 HR, 95 RBI
    Freeman: .260, 12, 70
    Uggla: .265, 31, 95
    Gonzalez: .240, 10, 45
    Jones: .255, 5, 45
    Prado: .315, 17, 80
    McLouth: .245, 12, 40
    Heyward: .285, 24, 85

  50. Fun fact, I once planned to own every Wally Backman baseball card ever created. One of my first attempts at being ironic.

  51. I should rephrase. Apparently tomorrow night at midnight is the deadline for protecting players. Draft to follow.

    Mac–yep, it might well be worth taking a chance on a bullpen arm or backup IF.

  52. McCann- .287/.370/.455/.825 23HR
    Freeman- .270/.360/.440/.800 20HR
    Uggla- .260/.350/.480/.830 30HR
    Gonzalez- .255/.320/.410/.730 16HR
    Jones- .270/.380/.440/.820 18HR
    Prado- .300/.350/.475/.825 20HR
    McClouth- .255/.340/.420/.760 15HR
    Heyward- .290/.420/.510/.930 28HR

  53. @72, yeah, the bench so shallow that the team really does have a spot left to take a flyer on a Michael Taylor or someone.

  54. Uggla – .265/.367/.509
    Heyward – .293/.419/.487
    Chipper – .279/.377/.435
    McCann – .269/.389/.477
    Prado – .302/.355/.444
    Freeman – .280/.351/.449
    McLouth – .249/.332/.402
    Gonzalez – .255/.299/.430

  55. Bah, my comments keep getting eaten! Well, if there are any DC comic nerds out there, I got 75 Years of DC Comics: The Art of Modern Mythmaking today as my graduation gift and all I can say is, wow. It’s over 700 pages long and is absolutely gigantic and traces the history of the comics and characters they produced.

  56. When I read the comments at talking chop, I can’t tell if it’s a blog about a major league baseball team, or if its about dragon ball z, or something.

  57. LF Prado .279/.310/.426 142 games
    RF Heyward .249/.380/.437 150 games
    3B Jones .196/.354/.357 35 games/loses both feet in a sliding accident/retirement
    2B Uggla .263/.352/.511 154 games
    C McCann .271/.384/.454 139 games
    SS Gonzalez .244/.296/.423 142 games
    1B Freeman .224/.287/.404 63 games/replaced by someone/sent to AAA
    CF McLouth.108/.233/.304 44 games/released

    SP Tim Hudson 3.46/121 Ks/217 innings
    SP Tommy Hanson 4.38/146 Ks/189 innings
    SP Derek Lowe 3.89/142 Ks/212 innings
    SP Jair Jurrjens 4.56/110 Ks/173 innings
    SP Not gonna speculate due to possibility of a signing

  58. jjschiller,

    Yup, that’s where I go when I’m pissed off and don’t have anything particularly constructive, intelligent, thoughtful, or possible thing to say (trade for RYAN BRAUN!!). Of course, some of the rest of the TC readers are brilliant and present thoughtful ideas, but it can get pretty messy with random stuff.


    I love Bobby. I love the Braves. I want them to win every game every year. But if it was Cox’s final season, did you really expect anything different from him turning in an extremely promising regular season followed by a division series loss against an underrated opponent?

    It was kinda a major part of his style.

    (hides from the rocks)

  59. #94–Unfortunately, I have been to enough bad international buffets where these linkages (and much worse) are made all the time….

  60. ASG I really wish you hadn’t said that… cause now I’ll be waiting for it with dread… at least till early April when he delivers.

  61. screw defense – Choo is exempt from military service. Go get him Wren


    I can dream right?

  62. Bethany,
    I have usually been a bigger fan of the artwork from Marvel. If you’re into DC take a look at the Trinity graphic novel series. I really enjoyed it because it had DC characters but with art from my friend Mark Bagley (who is also a Braves fan). Normally he works for Marvel but did this project for DC. Good story and good art. http://www.dccomics.com/dccomics/search/?q=trinity+vol

  63. Do we have to wait for the season to start to give Dan Uggla a nickname.
    I’m leaning toward Uggo, but sounds a bit Australian.

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