spike (back in the USA)
on November 20, 2009 at 10:52 am
JC’ed from the last thread –
WRT Konerko, bear in mind that virtually every player hits better at home. Having said that, I want no part of Konerko. He’s older and liable to get worse not better. I’d say an OPS+ of about 115 is the best you can hope for there. I’d rather throw the money at LaRoche and salary dump Lowe. Higher upside, and some residual trade value should Freeman evolve into the real thing.
Stu
on November 20, 2009 at 10:52 am
Hey, billy-jay, here’s the VU baseball team’s schedule for their trip out your way:
#1 – Im sure thats what we’d want to do also. Wasnt the Konerko idea all in part of trying to dump Lowe on someone. If thats our only taker and its one yr of Konerko at $12 or three years of Lowe at $15, Id make that swap
BFedRec
on November 20, 2009 at 11:34 am
Is there a handy list of “guys not protected” somewhere? Wondering who we MIGHT lose to Rule V and who we might want to snag…
spike (back in the USA)
on November 20, 2009 at 11:54 am
@4 – I suppose if Konerko was the best we could do, as opposed to giving him to someone who needs pitching for next to nothing (crap prospects) like the Yankees, you’d have to consider it.
csg
on November 20, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Id give Lowe away for the worst minor leaguer in baseball
Basically, there’s Vandy, and then there’s everyone else.
Cary
on November 20, 2009 at 1:32 pm
@11, also the grad rates are calculated a little funky.
If a player transfers to another school, it counts against the initial school, be it because of injury, playing time, homesickness, whatever. Also, if a player leaves early for the NFL, that counts against the school as well.
Should Georgia Tech be penalized because TE Colin Peek transferred to Alabama? Does that mean the school is doing something improper regarding academics? Seems spurious to me.
I think it’s also considered a negative result for the school if a player dies, like the guy who was shot at Miami.
The NCAA could stand to tighten the calculations up to make them more sensible is all I’m saying.
BFedRec
on November 20, 2009 at 1:37 pm
I really liked the role Campillo could play… the spot starter/ long reliever thing he did pretty well with. I don’t think we need him per se, but I think he’d be a reasonable addition to many a team’s bullpen.
Parish
on November 20, 2009 at 1:51 pm
We lost to Tennessee by that score a few years back.
In other news, Corky Miller has been granted free agency by the Reds.
LSU/Ole Miss aside, rough weekend for SEC football. No wonder Georgia/Kentucky is in prime time.
Stu
on November 20, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Seriously, Frank Wren should call Dayton Moore and offer Jurrjens for Butler and Soria. I think that’s a pretty fair trade, or at least a really good starting point. He should then sign Mike Cameron. The Braves would be ballin’.
Mike N.
on November 20, 2009 at 5:06 pm
This is the guy who traded 2 minor leaguers with at least some value for Yuniesky Betancourt. He also traded that Cordier dude to us for Tony Pena.
I really don’t think it would take as much as some think to get Soria from them.
Stu
on November 20, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Well, this would be for Soria and Butler, but Dayton could always throw in Greinke if he wanted to even it out some.
hankonly
on November 20, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Too lazy to look it up (and hoping for a little informed insight), but:
The Joe Posnanski book about the ’75 Reds (“The Machine”) is terrific.
As was his stated purpose, the author really brings you back to a time when Pete Rose was regarded rather differently. He might not’ve been loved outside Cincinnati, but he was damn-sure respected. Posnansky makes sure that’s not lost on any reader whose view of Rose has been colored by subsequent failings.
In the book, Sparky Anderson treats the team as essentially 4 stars (Bench, Rose, Morgan & Perez) & the rest. Although his intention certainly isn’t to sully any legacies, Posnanski pulls no punches on any of the players, He tells stories of internal feuds & marital failings, cultural generation gaps & player/GM frictions, managerial mistrusts & overdue glories. Some end up looking better than others.
For example, Johnny Bench is portrayed as annoyingly aloof. In fact, Ken Griffey, Sr., actually says he was an asshole back then. But Bench’s greatness is never in question & his backstory seems to explain a lot.
In fact, Bench & Rose didn’t get along that well, but they knew that they needed each other. When Morgan came to the Reds, he was informed that he had to choose between Bench & Rose—he couldn’t be close to both. He picked Rose & he remains grateful that Rose drove him to get better. And while Posnanski portrays Rose as the engine that drove the Reds, interestingly, he unveils Tony Perez as the clubhouse arbiter.
I also like the little cultural signposts Posnanski sprinkles into the book—music, politics, attitudes, etc. He really puts you back into that mid-‘70s head, and helps explain how sports could help soothe a somewhat dismal time. What’s crucial is that he doesn’t overdo it, but gives you just enough to understand the climate & use it as a backdrop to a bigger story.
Recommended book, for sure.
hankonly
on November 20, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Thanks, Stu. Fangraphs is now bookmarked.
In 171 less at-bats, Matt Diaz knocked in only 12 less runs than Cameron. Diaz had 13 homeruns to Cameron’s 24. Matt hit .313 while Cameron hit .250.
I’d like to have Cameron, but not as a replacement for Diaz. And that’s what would happen if Bobby had the chance.
hankonly
on November 20, 2009 at 6:33 pm
I read the comparison of Jason Bay and Mike Cameron with interest. Also read the comments until my eyes glazed over from sabermetric overload.
Which brought to mind this question:
Is it worth it to learn all of the new(ish) stats?
I’ll do it if it’s not just statheads numberbating.
You guys are the perfect ones to ask.
spike (back in the USA)
on November 20, 2009 at 6:40 pm
For me, I try to learn the basis of the stats, just so I can understand the relative values. Having said that, they are a mixed bag of goods. The formulas get pretty complex pretty fast, so they are hard to understand in an absolute sense. The other thing is trying to figure out if they have any predictive value, or if they are past performance evaluation tools. I won’t pretend that I have much of a grasp beyond the rudimentary, but it’s sort of fun to understand the direction the stat world is headed.
Not much of an answer I guess, but there you have my two cents.
Stu
on November 20, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Cameron (everyday CF) would only replace Diaz (corner OF against lefties; out of the lineup in favor of McLouth and Heyward or Church against righties), and that would be smart.
I think it’s worth learning as much as you can about the new stuff, which is always changing. Even if you don’t agree, you’ll know from where everyone is arguing.
Nice read… but about the Hawks “barely beating” the Heat. Gosh, I seem to remember all the analysts saying that the Heat were going to roll over the Hawks and looking forward to Wade-James in the second round, because the Heat had the best player — not noting that the Hawks had the second-, third-, fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-best players in the series.
36,
5 best saber-stats? Hmm… Well, I’m going to define saber-stats as things you can’t find on a baseball-reference page, though there is plenty of saber-ish material on there. And I’d do the following:
Pick one of the component offensive metrics (wOBA, EqA, etc..)
Pick one of the component ERA metrics (FIP/xFIP, tRA, ERC, etc..)
Pick one of the total-value metrics (VORP, WAR, etc..)
Pick one of the fielding systems (UZR, +/-, whatever BPro’s fielding system nobody pays attention to is)
And pick something you’re interested in.
Let the trade speculation begin! Also, Gammons says that the Marlins are talking to the Sox about a Commando Cody deal.
td
on November 20, 2009 at 11:42 pm
I saw the movie Blind Side (about Michael Oher from Ole Miss) and I thought it was excellent. Sandra Bullock did a very good job, but Tim McGraw could have been better. The guy who played Oher (Quinton Aaron) was tremendous. Seeing all the SEC coaches (Holtz, Nutt, Saban, Tuberville, Fulmer, Orgeron) was pretty interesting. It’s funny to think that it was only 5 years ago when he was being recruited and none of the coaches above are with the same team.
kc
on November 21, 2009 at 2:35 am
I don’t know if Josh can keep playing this well the entire season….but, man…he has been awesome.
Tom
on November 21, 2009 at 8:30 am
hankonly @ 31,
I can’t believe you actually read the fangraph article and then made your statement:
– Cameron is way above average in CF, thus his value. Diaz is below average in RF to say the least. Seems to me you completely missed the point.
– And will people EVER learn that RBI (how many someone has “knocked in”, as you wrote) tells you NOTHING (and BA next to nothing) about how good a hitter someone is?
Tom
on November 21, 2009 at 8:37 am
Gonzalez would be a nice addition. Offer Jurrjens for him 1:1?
spike (back in the USA)
on November 21, 2009 at 8:55 am
@43 – true enough, but you can’t deny that Diaz has outhit Cameron over the last four seasons, significantly so if you factor in Diaz’ injury in 2008 and is a pretty good bet to do so going forward. Did not read the article, and agree with the point about defensive value. Just giving Matt his offensive due. I would not be opposed to a McClouth/Diaz/Cameron OF to open the season with Church as the 4th OF/platoon partner and Heyward getting some time in AAA. Resign LaRoche, find a bullpen guy to replace one or both of Gonzalez/Soriano and you are all set for the offseason.
Wow, Campillo signed with the Royals, didnt see that coming!
/end sarcasm
IthacaBraves
on November 21, 2009 at 11:28 am
This Konerko for Lowe speculation is nonsensical. The white sox look something like the braves, solid maybe even excellent rotation (Peavy, Danks, Floyd and Buehrle) with a mediocre cast of position players, why would they trade one of their top OPSers, even if he’s overpaid and underachieving for an even more overpaid and underachieving pitcher who would end up being a fourth or fifth starter?
cliff
on November 21, 2009 at 11:32 am
The Cameron thing is interesting. However, I think you move McLouth to right and put Diaz in left. McLouth has an average CF arm which can play in right and Diaz has an average LF arm which plays poorly in right. And as an extra step, you tender Church.
Then, (a) all 3 OF’s are plus OF’s defensively, (b) If Cameron goes down (he is 37), you canslide McLoth back into center and play Church, (c) you can sit Cameron once a week against a righty and the same with Diaz to build enough PA’s to keep Church effective, and (d) nobody is blocking Heyward.
Cameron for 1 year at 8, vesting option at 8 is a better deal for the Braves with this cast of players than getting into defensive disaster Bay or potential Coors Field only phenom Holliday for 5 or more years. Diaz would be 4 or so, McLouth 5.5, Church 4 or so, and Cameron at 8. 21.5 for 4 credible ML outfielders with the odd man out being a credible pinchhitter / double switcher.
And, if Heyward just looks so good in spring training that you just can’t send him down, you cut Church and only owe him 1/6 salary.
cliff
on November 21, 2009 at 11:41 am
On trading Vazquez as compared to Halladay.
Halladay has 1 year, at 15.75. JV is 1 year at 11.5. Clearly Halladay has a better track record as a better pitcher. However, since neither is signed beyond next year, the question is how good would they be next year. And then, how much did they cost (in players and in salary).
One big difference in favor of Halladay is that BoSox and Yanks have seen him pitch effectively against them over and over and saw JV struggle in their division. So, I think they would discount JV fairly heavily. thus, with the biggest potential buyers out, the rest would know they could “back off” too.
I would think with the difference in salary, that JV should bring 60% of what Halladay would. Is that too off base?
49,
What should happen and what would happen are different, but Vazquez is worth more than 60% of Halladay. Basically, Vazquez is paid like a 3-win pitcher and Halladay is paid like a 4-win pitcher. Halladay has averaged 6.5 wins the past 4 years, Vazquez has averaged 5.3 wins. If they both perform like they have the past 4 years, Vazquez is worth an excess of ~$12.5 million and Halladay is worth an excess of ~$13.5 million in 2010. Of course, a club close to contention is going to value that extra win more, so Halladay is probably worth more than Vazquez, but I’d think it’s closer to 85% than 60%.
@44
Don’t know if that’d be enough for them, but it’d work for me.
It’s hard for me to get interested in LaRoche if Gonzales is possible. I’d take Gonzales with an extension. Look at his contract now!
Padres GM and Gonzo’s rep met yesterday. Both playing it very coy.
cliff
on November 21, 2009 at 1:14 pm
P. W.,
I am not as good on the deep analysis as you. When I was typing that the first time, I put 80%. Then, after I remembered the Yankees and White Sox were out (and really felt the BoSox might be out) I backed off.
As I see it off the west coast (and JV is NOT going there unless BIG money goes his way) there are the following teams that are in “win now” mode enough that JV either gets them a shot at a playoff spot, or increases their chances of getting a playoff spot, or increases their chances of going deep into the playoffs (and would at least conider an 11.5 m pitcher. Marlins could otherwise fit this and maybe the Rays).
Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox (and count all three of them out), Mets, Phlllies (and those are unlikely to happen in the same division), Cubs, Cardinals, Twins (iffy on would they spend the money), Tigers (they are trying to unload money, but with a player or two, they can still compete).
Where JV plays in with the Halladay / Yanks / BoSox thing is if one of them starts to look like they are going for Halladay, the other might (well, if it is the BoSox that is the other) want to get in on Javy.
But, if the haul on Halladay is close to what Toronto is seeking, and if JV can even get 60% of that, you can make a good case (on total value of talent exchanged compared to cost) that you are better off dealing JV over Lowe.
IthacaBraves
on November 21, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Any thoughts on Adrian Beltre at two years 10-12 million? He’s only 30, I realize that his OBP and OPS have been pretty mediocre throughout his career, but he’s a great defender and he has some pop. Move Chip to first for the next two years and by the time Freeman is ready he’ll be blocked only by an injury prone 38 or 39 year old chipper who will need to rest plenty anyway. This would be augmented by either a Cameron or Marlon Byrd signing, thus strengthening our defense in all three outfield positions(assuming Diaz in left and McLouth in right) as well as our infield, making us a strong defensive team with a superb pitching staff and an offense that isn’t top flight but doesn’t have any holes in it, this would also give us a very solid bench and hopefully leave us enough wiggle room to sign a closer and an additional bullpen arm.
He’s no more 30 than he is Oxford Professor of Romantic Literature. That is a baseball age, big time.
cliff
on November 21, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Ithacabraves,
If you can solve your essentially unsolvable premise (getting Chipper moved to 1B) there are lots of options that could strengthen the team from many different directions.
And, I think, if Bobby asked Chipper to think about it hard, he might do it.
However, until you see some sign that it might actually happen, it is kind of a waste to speculate off of that.
spike (back in the USA)
on November 21, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Dave Cameron’s point is well taken, but the object is not necessarily to be the cheapest. Mike Cameron would cost more than Winn, but be a much better offensively and defensively.
Adrian Beltre’s work in the field of semiotics are less well-known than his struggles in Safeco, but he made some noteworthy contributions to the field during his time as a Dodger farmhand. Here’s an excerpt from a recent piece by one of his more famous coauthors, Dr. Rudolf J.R. Parry, “Social realism in the works of Stone.”
1. The dialectic paradigm of reality and postcultural situationism
If one examines social realism, one is faced with a choice: either reject the conceptual paradigm of context or conclude that the establishment is fundamentally meaningless. Several discourses concerning Baudrillardist hyperreality may be revealed.
Thus, the characteristic theme of the works of Stone is the role of the artist as observer. If social realism holds, we have to choose between postcultural situationism and the neotextual paradigm of discourse.
In a sense, Sartre promotes the use of social realism to read and analyse sexual identity. Bataille uses the term ‘the conceptual paradigm of context’ to denote a self-justifying totality.
It could be said that Bailey[1] implies that we have to choose between Sartreist existentialism and cultural construction. Debord’s model of social realism holds that the task of the reader is social comment, given that art is distinct from sexuality.
52,
I think the haul that Toronto is seeking is ridiculous. I even think J.A. Happ would be too much for Halladay straight up. All Happ has to do over the next two years is average being a 2 win player to be more valuable than Roy Halladay’s current contract plus draft picks.
c. shorter
on November 21, 2009 at 2:30 pm
58 — And this whole time I thought he was a formalist. (well played, AAR)
P.W.Hjort, you might be right, but I think the value function is exponential, not linear. The marginal value of a star — a 6-win player over a 4-win player — is greater than the marginal value of a 4-win player over a 2-win player, assuming a normal distribution of talent. Simply put, players as good as Halladay are nearly impossible to find, and are therefore correspondingly expensive. Moreover, for obvious reasons, it’s more desirable to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players. One major problem I have with Fangraphs’ dollar calculations is that they appear to be based on a linear calculation of dollars-to-WAR.
Frankly, I don’t think much of Happ, and I know you don’t either. It’s very possible that the Jays are asking too much. But I think Halladay has a bit more value than you’re implying.
64,
Teams pay for wins on a virtually linear scale on the FA market. The risk assumed by sinking so many financial resources into one player counter-balances the reward of reaping that much more production from a single roster spot. And it isn’t necessarily more valuable to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players, it’s all about context and risk.
braves14
on November 21, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Les Miles knows nothing about time management.
Cary
on November 21, 2009 at 7:27 pm
What an ending..
NUTT: I’m going to put the smallest guy on the field to face the spearhead of the onside kick rush. He jumped away from the ball. Excellent!
MILES: Oh yeah. I’m going to turn a 50-yard game-winning FG into a 60-yd, no, 70-yd no-hope FG possibility.
NUTT: Screw you, son. I’ve trained my cornerbacks to stare at desperation passes. See! Complete to the 10!
MILES: With only one second left, dipshit. Watch this.. (LSU QB inexplicably spikes ball into turf as time runs out). Game. HAT. Michigan, I’m coming, baby.
NUTT: Damn home clock. Well played, Hat. Well played.
csg
on November 21, 2009 at 8:29 pm
HA HA Les, see post #3. Seriously call timeout with 30 seconds left, not 9. That cost them the win
csg
on November 21, 2009 at 8:31 pm
ESPN’s breaking news is Ole Miss upsets LSU. How big of an upset is that really? Ole Miss was actually favored by -3.5
braves14
on November 21, 2009 at 11:33 pm
braves14’s SEC bowl projections:
BCS: Florida and Alabama
Capital One: Ole Miss 9-3
Cotton: Arkansas 8-4 (I predict a win over LSU next week)
Outback: LSU 8-4
Chic-Fil-A: Tennessee 7-5
Music City: Kentucky 7-5
Liberty: Auburn 7-5
Independence: Georgia 6-6
Papa John’s: USC 6-6
In case anyone was unaware, Les Miles is an idiot.
spike (back in the USA)
on November 22, 2009 at 12:24 am
Many long faces here in Georgia. I enjoyed it immensely.
chris
on November 22, 2009 at 2:36 am
my tarheels have won 4 in a row. thinking we’ll go to the chic-fil-a and slap tennessee around for you guys.
Stephen in the UAE
on November 22, 2009 at 4:35 am
#72–I did not get a chance to see it, but I am guessing that its another case where Richt just did not have his team ready to play….
chris
on November 22, 2009 at 6:37 am
is Richt eyeing the fighing Irish?
barrycuda
on November 22, 2009 at 9:59 am
Beware Mark Richt on his way out of town…..he sure left a turd in the punchbowl here.
blake
on November 22, 2009 at 12:04 pm
AAR @ 64,
that is true with respect to linear valuations, however Dave Cameron has looked at the relative values teams place on players (via paying for them in FA) and has concluded that teams DO NOT pay marginally more for exceptionally better players and those extra marginal wins even though they appear to be worth more. The pay scale IS linear in FA……one reason for this could be while two 3 win players take up that extra spot, they also allow you to diversify your risk…there are obviously two sides to this and the real answer probably lies somewhere in between, but it is interesting nonetheless.
for what its worth i tend to agree with you and value that extra marginal win more than i do the security of diversifying.
EDIT – I should have read 65 before posting this…..
ryan c
on November 22, 2009 at 1:30 pm
sheffield said he would love to come back to atlanta. would he be a good, cheap signing? i’d take sheffield for spot starts and bench bat. he was a 3b and ss when he started out. maybe he can play some first every now and again (even though fangraphs has his 9 games at first to be pretty bad).
ryan c
on November 22, 2009 at 1:53 pm
from DOB:
“Don’t know if it’s been mentioned here, but St. Pete Times had this note today: According to an industry source, the Rangers and White Sox have shown interest in CF B.J. Upton, and the Mets and Braves have inquired about All-Star LF Carl Crawford. The Rays have said they’re interested in discussing a long-term deal with Crawford, who is eligible to be a free agent after the 2010 season.”
oh wow. crawford would be amazing, but would cost a ton!
Rob Cope
on November 22, 2009 at 1:59 pm
I read the St. Pete Times almost every morning, and I’ve been reading a lot of what Andrew Friedman is saying about the offseason. This guy isn’t Chuck LaMar. He’s a pretty reasonable person who’s not going to ask for the moon if he were to trade Upton or Crawford. If anything, he asked for too little for Aki and Edwin Jackson.
However, I really don’t think Crawford gets dealt this offseason. I also think there’s almost no chance Upton gets traded either. The Rays’ weakness is starting pitching, but I don’t think they’re looking for what we’re offering. Vazquez, Lowe, and Kawakami are probably too expensive for them, and I don’t think we’re trading Hanson or Jurrjens.
It would be really sweet to have Crawford though. Easily the best defensive LF in baseball.
Mike N.
on November 22, 2009 at 2:22 pm
So when do the Falcons bring back Morten Andersen to replace Jason Elam?
Stu
on November 22, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Crawford is obviously a really good player, but I don’t get why we’d be investing resources in him. Speedy left-handed hitter isn’t exactly at the top of our list of needs.
Rob Cope
on November 22, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Yeah, and Crawford’s going to New York anyway. They want more speed in the outfield, and left field looks pretty open there.
To me, McLouth and Crawford aren’t far off as players. Both would be good left fielders but don’t really have the range for center. Crawford has more steals and a better average; McLouth has more power and a better arm. Surely not worth paying one $13M and another $5M or whatever McLouth makes.
We need to trade for Jimmie Foxx.
cliff
on November 22, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Rob at 83,
Is XX frozen also? Can we get them to thaw him?
Might be worth it.
(very underknown tremendous player. What was it, 10 straight years of over 40 HR’s?)
I don’t think Richt is going anywhere. Can’t say the same about his staff.
But last night’s game is almost completely on Joe Cox.
cliff
on November 22, 2009 at 5:55 pm
ububba,
Joe Cox didn’t fumble the second half kick off. He didn’t make a chicken shit late hit out of bounds on the second Kentucky posession or a chicken shit hold that was also a face mask penalty after a blocked kick (and he didn’t have anything to do with the blocked kick, or the kickoff returns past the 40).
Cox was bad in the second half. But that only made him “one of the guys.”
The real problem is that you have a coach who can’t get more than 2 quarters of effort coupled with precision out of his team in a single game and that has been the case for 8 years. I thought we got past that late in 2007, but no, it is still the same. Georgia has the talent to be a better team. We just don’t coach it up well.
Mark Richt, there are 4, FOUR, quarters in a football game.
I’m not excusing any coaches here. As bad as they played—and you’d be hard-pressed to find a worse 2nd half—they still probably win if Cox doesn’t throw 2 unbelievable INTs & fire that pitch into Ealey’s gut. That’s on Cox.
Without his 3 unforced turnovers, it’s a different game, again, probably a Georgia win.
One can argue that the dumb penalties are the fault of the coaches. I’m not sure you can hang Cox’s erratic play on them.
cliff
on November 22, 2009 at 6:17 pm
When Cox has tried to throw short all season, he has thrown interceptions. The coaches know that. They apparently think Logan Gray will never be an SEC capable quarterback and that the two freshmen are too raw to trust. But, when the team was obviously struggling earlier (like after Tennessee), Richt decided to stick with Cox. Maybe if not, we don’t beat Vandy or Auburn. But, we would probably have a head start on setting up a team for next year.
I think the pitch fumble was Cox calling an audible that the backs behind him didn’t hear. The two second half int’s were pitiful (but that has happened all year).
By “but for” causation, probably if Branden Smith doesn’t fumble the second half kickoff, Georgia wins. If the blocked punt turns into a first down, maybe Georgia wins.
Well, QB is the main conversation UGA people have had all season.
Cox will make some big plays—and he did last night, long & short—but he’ll break your heart. He’s averaged more than 1 INT per game on a team that’s turned the ball over 26 times in 11 games. (BTW, notice how the role of fumble-prone RB Richard Samuel has been reduced to nothing?)
Apparently, neither of the redshirt QBs are Stafford or Greene material. We’re not sure what future they give us, but it’s gotta be better than Cox. And Logan Gray’s role apparently is to call fair catch on punts in our own end—that’s how well he’s regarded.
It can be painful to watch, but I’m alright with taking our lumps with Cox this year & hanging onto the redshirts.
Next year’s staff is certainly going to be different & Richt is going to feel real pressure for the first time. As I’ve said, one down year is probably OK, but not 2.
hankonly
on November 22, 2009 at 7:14 pm
“art is distinct from sexuality”?
Not in this house! (They call me The Fireman.)
hankonly
on November 22, 2009 at 7:16 pm
A grateful Commonwealth thanks Joe Cox and a cast of red-clad others for the early Christmas present.
Richt to Notre Dame? First I’ve heard of it. Doubt it would happen.
Someone who is named Kelly and is undefeated seems like a lock. (Unless someone named Urban declares his interest.)
braves14
on November 22, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Joe Cox is not nearly as big of a problem as the defense for UGA. They also haven’t run the ball well like a Georgia team typically does this year.
Smitty
on November 22, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Braves14,
I agree 100%. Let’s face it. No one thought Joe Cox was Matt Stafford and replacing Morreno isn’t easy either. This team was rated way to high to start the season.
The defense has tons of talent, but Martinez can’t make adjustments to save his life. I would replace him and probably most of the defensive staff.
csg
on November 22, 2009 at 8:52 pm
possible ND targets, Meyer/Kelly
possible Michigan target, Miles/Kelly
Richt will get another yr, but will have to make many assistant changes
Smitty
on November 22, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Is Rodriguez out for sure at Michigan? If he is I think they offer Jim Harbaugh 4 zillion dollars. But I am not sure he is out.
ND will go after Meyer or Kelly.
Johnny
on November 22, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Why would anyone take the Notre Dame job?
Ok let me re phrase. Why would Meyer take the ND job? After I typed the first sentence it dawned on me that ND does pay a lot of money for guys to fail to live up to unrealistic expectations.
No matter who is playing defense, 14 INTs in 11 games in unacceptable.
But almost everyone who watches UGA knows it needs a new approach on the other side of the ball.
csg
on November 22, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Why would anyone take the Notre Dame job?
why, because all they really need is 4-5 wins each year and theyll find themselves in a BCS game. or at least it seems that way
Rob Cope
on November 22, 2009 at 11:15 pm
The Michigan president or AD said Rodriguez will be back next year. For what that’s worth…
An established coach won’t take the ND job, I don’t think. I can see Kelly taking it, but Mark Richt or Urban Meyer would be stupid to take the job. I mean, why would you? Urban is sitting in probably the best place to be in college football: the best team in the richest state for talent. Almost the same thing with Richt. He’s got the upper hand on almost all of Georgia’s talent.
I really don’t even see how Notre Dame wins anything big unless they go undefeated, too. Florida or Georgia can get in the big game with one loss, whereas Notre Dame could be perfect and miss the BCSCG. Yeah, yeah, the prestige, but come on, I don’t get what’s so glamorous about Notre Dame. Maybe I’m just too young to appreciate their success.
It seems like Notre Dame is the place for guys who are building their college head coach careers (Willingham, Weis) to develop, not the national powerhouse they once was.
Rob Cope
on November 22, 2009 at 11:29 pm
That last sentence is so jacked up grammatically, I’d like to apologize.
Why would a coach want to go to Notre Dame? A couple main reasons.
Like Urban Meyer, a practicing Catholic, it’s a lifelong dream for many coaches who grew up watching the glory days of Parseghian, Devine and, later, Holtz.
Also, with a little bit of success, coaches can get rich there. Notre Dame is a money machine. It’s the only school that has every game on national television.
And remember, when independent Notre Dame goes bowling, it doesn’t have to share its bowl money with other conference members.
So, when Charlie Weis is dismissed, he’ll never have to work another day in his life. His buyout is reportedly $15 million.
Notre Dame’s biggest issue, it seems, is that it won’t dramatically lower its standards to bring in just any athlete. As most of us know, it’s a different story in places like the SEC.
It’s an oft-repeated joke as to why Meyer went to Florida instead of Notre Dame: “You can’t get a marginal student/athlete admitted to Notre Dame, but you can get a potted plant into Florida.”
cliff
on November 23, 2009 at 9:00 am
Ububba,
Why would you need to get a pot plant into UF? Don’t they grown their own?
JC’ed from the last thread –
WRT Konerko, bear in mind that virtually every player hits better at home. Having said that, I want no part of Konerko. He’s older and liable to get worse not better. I’d say an OPS+ of about 115 is the best you can hope for there. I’d rather throw the money at LaRoche and salary dump Lowe. Higher upside, and some residual trade value should Freeman evolve into the real thing.
Hey, billy-jay, here’s the VU baseball team’s schedule for their trip out your way:
Ole Miss will beat LSU
Braves added 5 pitchers to their 40 man roster
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091120&content_id=7692890&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
#1 – Im sure thats what we’d want to do also. Wasnt the Konerko idea all in part of trying to dump Lowe on someone. If thats our only taker and its one yr of Konerko at $12 or three years of Lowe at $15, Id make that swap
Is there a handy list of “guys not protected” somewhere? Wondering who we MIGHT lose to Rule V and who we might want to snag…
Hey… JC’s posting on a site not blocked from my work!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jc-bradbury/wins-suck_b_365193.html
@4 – I suppose if Konerko was the best we could do, as opposed to giving him to someone who needs pitching for next to nothing (crap prospects) like the Yankees, you’d have to consider it.
Id give Lowe away for the worst minor leaguer in baseball
The more things change…
I don’t think Campillo is as bad as the other ones…
[SEC football] Graduation Success Rates – Roll ‘Bama Roll
Basically, there’s Vandy, and then there’s everyone else.
@11, also the grad rates are calculated a little funky.
If a player transfers to another school, it counts against the initial school, be it because of injury, playing time, homesickness, whatever. Also, if a player leaves early for the NFL, that counts against the school as well.
Should Georgia Tech be penalized because TE Colin Peek transferred to Alabama? Does that mean the school is doing something improper regarding academics? Seems spurious to me.
I think it’s also considered a negative result for the school if a player dies, like the guy who was shot at Miami.
The NCAA could stand to tighten the calculations up to make them more sensible is all I’m saying.
I really liked the role Campillo could play… the spot starter/ long reliever thing he did pretty well with. I don’t think we need him per se, but I think he’d be a reasonable addition to many a team’s bullpen.
We lost to Tennessee by that score a few years back.
In other news, Corky Miller has been granted free agency by the Reds.
The Royals await.
UmpBump has a “what they need” series with a Braves entry… interesting ideas (though they trot out “move Chipper to 1st”)
http://umpbump.com/press/2009/11/12/what-they-need-braves/
3 – We also re-signed Wes Timmons.
How many games will that guy log in AAA?
They’re just keeping him there to increase his value, till they trade him for Puljos.
They are so sneaky like that AAR.
Y’all I cannot believe most you think that Greg Norton was a worse player than Omar Moreno.
Johnny – It’s all “what have you done for me lately?”
If only Dayton Moore could be the GM of every team other than the Braves.
Parish… I think “for” should be replaced with “to” in your post.
LSU/Ole Miss aside, rough weekend for SEC football. No wonder Georgia/Kentucky is in prime time.
Seriously, Frank Wren should call Dayton Moore and offer Jurrjens for Butler and Soria. I think that’s a pretty fair trade, or at least a really good starting point. He should then sign Mike Cameron. The Braves would be ballin’.
This is the guy who traded 2 minor leaguers with at least some value for Yuniesky Betancourt. He also traded that Cordier dude to us for Tony Pena.
I really don’t think it would take as much as some think to get Soria from them.
Well, this would be for Soria and Butler, but Dayton could always throw in Greinke if he wanted to even it out some.
Too lazy to look it up (and hoping for a little informed insight), but:
What were Mike Cameron’s stats in 2009?
He’s still a very good defensive CF with some power.
In case you missed it…
Pg Dn Alert: Book Report to Follow…
The Joe Posnanski book about the ’75 Reds (“The Machine”) is terrific.
As was his stated purpose, the author really brings you back to a time when Pete Rose was regarded rather differently. He might not’ve been loved outside Cincinnati, but he was damn-sure respected. Posnansky makes sure that’s not lost on any reader whose view of Rose has been colored by subsequent failings.
In the book, Sparky Anderson treats the team as essentially 4 stars (Bench, Rose, Morgan & Perez) & the rest. Although his intention certainly isn’t to sully any legacies, Posnanski pulls no punches on any of the players, He tells stories of internal feuds & marital failings, cultural generation gaps & player/GM frictions, managerial mistrusts & overdue glories. Some end up looking better than others.
For example, Johnny Bench is portrayed as annoyingly aloof. In fact, Ken Griffey, Sr., actually says he was an asshole back then. But Bench’s greatness is never in question & his backstory seems to explain a lot.
In fact, Bench & Rose didn’t get along that well, but they knew that they needed each other. When Morgan came to the Reds, he was informed that he had to choose between Bench & Rose—he couldn’t be close to both. He picked Rose & he remains grateful that Rose drove him to get better. And while Posnanski portrays Rose as the engine that drove the Reds, interestingly, he unveils Tony Perez as the clubhouse arbiter.
I also like the little cultural signposts Posnanski sprinkles into the book—music, politics, attitudes, etc. He really puts you back into that mid-‘70s head, and helps explain how sports could help soothe a somewhat dismal time. What’s crucial is that he doesn’t overdo it, but gives you just enough to understand the climate & use it as a backdrop to a bigger story.
Recommended book, for sure.
Thanks, Stu. Fangraphs is now bookmarked.
In 171 less at-bats, Matt Diaz knocked in only 12 less runs than Cameron. Diaz had 13 homeruns to Cameron’s 24. Matt hit .313 while Cameron hit .250.
I’d like to have Cameron, but not as a replacement for Diaz. And that’s what would happen if Bobby had the chance.
I read the comparison of Jason Bay and Mike Cameron with interest. Also read the comments until my eyes glazed over from sabermetric overload.
Which brought to mind this question:
Is it worth it to learn all of the new(ish) stats?
I’ll do it if it’s not just statheads numberbating.
You guys are the perfect ones to ask.
For me, I try to learn the basis of the stats, just so I can understand the relative values. Having said that, they are a mixed bag of goods. The formulas get pretty complex pretty fast, so they are hard to understand in an absolute sense. The other thing is trying to figure out if they have any predictive value, or if they are past performance evaluation tools. I won’t pretend that I have much of a grasp beyond the rudimentary, but it’s sort of fun to understand the direction the stat world is headed.
Not much of an answer I guess, but there you have my two cents.
Cameron (everyday CF) would only replace Diaz (corner OF against lefties; out of the lineup in favor of McLouth and Heyward or Church against righties), and that would be smart.
I think it’s worth learning as much as you can about the new stuff, which is always changing. Even if you don’t agree, you’ll know from where everyone is arguing.
Saber-ish take on the Atlanta Hawks, or, Josh Smith is a super-star all of the sudden
Great find, P.W.!
Ok, I’ll see if I can find room on this rather full hard drive to learn the FIVE BEST SABERSTATS!
Uh, which five would that be?
Thanks.
34 should say “…would only replace Diaz against righties…and that would be smart.”
Nice read… but about the Hawks “barely beating” the Heat. Gosh, I seem to remember all the analysts saying that the Heat were going to roll over the Hawks and looking forward to Wade-James in the second round, because the Heat had the best player — not noting that the Hawks had the second-, third-, fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-best players in the series.
36,
5 best saber-stats? Hmm… Well, I’m going to define saber-stats as things you can’t find on a baseball-reference page, though there is plenty of saber-ish material on there. And I’d do the following:
Pick one of the component offensive metrics (wOBA, EqA, etc..)
Pick one of the component ERA metrics (FIP/xFIP, tRA, ERC, etc..)
Pick one of the total-value metrics (VORP, WAR, etc..)
Pick one of the fielding systems (UZR, +/-, whatever BPro’s fielding system nobody pays attention to is)
And pick something you’re interested in.
Agent: Pitcher Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins reach impasse in contract talks – ESPN.
Let the trade speculation begin! Also, Gammons says that the Marlins are talking to the Sox about a Commando Cody deal.
I saw the movie Blind Side (about Michael Oher from Ole Miss) and I thought it was excellent. Sandra Bullock did a very good job, but Tim McGraw could have been better. The guy who played Oher (Quinton Aaron) was tremendous. Seeing all the SEC coaches (Holtz, Nutt, Saban, Tuberville, Fulmer, Orgeron) was pretty interesting. It’s funny to think that it was only 5 years ago when he was being recruited and none of the coaches above are with the same team.
I don’t know if Josh can keep playing this well the entire season….but, man…he has been awesome.
hankonly @ 31,
I can’t believe you actually read the fangraph article and then made your statement:
– Cameron is way above average in CF, thus his value. Diaz is below average in RF to say the least. Seems to me you completely missed the point.
– And will people EVER learn that RBI (how many someone has “knocked in”, as you wrote) tells you NOTHING (and BA next to nothing) about how good a hitter someone is?
Gonzalez would be a nice addition. Offer Jurrjens for him 1:1?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4675917
@43 – true enough, but you can’t deny that Diaz has outhit Cameron over the last four seasons, significantly so if you factor in Diaz’ injury in 2008 and is a pretty good bet to do so going forward. Did not read the article, and agree with the point about defensive value. Just giving Matt his offensive due. I would not be opposed to a McClouth/Diaz/Cameron OF to open the season with Church as the 4th OF/platoon partner and Heyward getting some time in AAA. Resign LaRoche, find a bullpen guy to replace one or both of Gonzalez/Soriano and you are all set for the offseason.
Wow, Campillo signed with the Royals, didnt see that coming!
/end sarcasm
This Konerko for Lowe speculation is nonsensical. The white sox look something like the braves, solid maybe even excellent rotation (Peavy, Danks, Floyd and Buehrle) with a mediocre cast of position players, why would they trade one of their top OPSers, even if he’s overpaid and underachieving for an even more overpaid and underachieving pitcher who would end up being a fourth or fifth starter?
The Cameron thing is interesting. However, I think you move McLouth to right and put Diaz in left. McLouth has an average CF arm which can play in right and Diaz has an average LF arm which plays poorly in right. And as an extra step, you tender Church.
Then, (a) all 3 OF’s are plus OF’s defensively, (b) If Cameron goes down (he is 37), you canslide McLoth back into center and play Church, (c) you can sit Cameron once a week against a righty and the same with Diaz to build enough PA’s to keep Church effective, and (d) nobody is blocking Heyward.
Cameron for 1 year at 8, vesting option at 8 is a better deal for the Braves with this cast of players than getting into defensive disaster Bay or potential Coors Field only phenom Holliday for 5 or more years. Diaz would be 4 or so, McLouth 5.5, Church 4 or so, and Cameron at 8. 21.5 for 4 credible ML outfielders with the odd man out being a credible pinchhitter / double switcher.
And, if Heyward just looks so good in spring training that you just can’t send him down, you cut Church and only owe him 1/6 salary.
On trading Vazquez as compared to Halladay.
Halladay has 1 year, at 15.75. JV is 1 year at 11.5. Clearly Halladay has a better track record as a better pitcher. However, since neither is signed beyond next year, the question is how good would they be next year. And then, how much did they cost (in players and in salary).
One big difference in favor of Halladay is that BoSox and Yanks have seen him pitch effectively against them over and over and saw JV struggle in their division. So, I think they would discount JV fairly heavily. thus, with the biggest potential buyers out, the rest would know they could “back off” too.
I would think with the difference in salary, that JV should bring 60% of what Halladay would. Is that too off base?
49,
What should happen and what would happen are different, but Vazquez is worth more than 60% of Halladay. Basically, Vazquez is paid like a 3-win pitcher and Halladay is paid like a 4-win pitcher. Halladay has averaged 6.5 wins the past 4 years, Vazquez has averaged 5.3 wins. If they both perform like they have the past 4 years, Vazquez is worth an excess of ~$12.5 million and Halladay is worth an excess of ~$13.5 million in 2010. Of course, a club close to contention is going to value that extra win more, so Halladay is probably worth more than Vazquez, but I’d think it’s closer to 85% than 60%.
By the way, Dave Cameron thinks Randy Winn is a good idea for the Braves.
@44
Don’t know if that’d be enough for them, but it’d work for me.
It’s hard for me to get interested in LaRoche if Gonzales is possible. I’d take Gonzales with an extension. Look at his contract now!
Padres GM and Gonzo’s rep met yesterday. Both playing it very coy.
P. W.,
I am not as good on the deep analysis as you. When I was typing that the first time, I put 80%. Then, after I remembered the Yankees and White Sox were out (and really felt the BoSox might be out) I backed off.
As I see it off the west coast (and JV is NOT going there unless BIG money goes his way) there are the following teams that are in “win now” mode enough that JV either gets them a shot at a playoff spot, or increases their chances of getting a playoff spot, or increases their chances of going deep into the playoffs (and would at least conider an 11.5 m pitcher. Marlins could otherwise fit this and maybe the Rays).
Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox (and count all three of them out), Mets, Phlllies (and those are unlikely to happen in the same division), Cubs, Cardinals, Twins (iffy on would they spend the money), Tigers (they are trying to unload money, but with a player or two, they can still compete).
Where JV plays in with the Halladay / Yanks / BoSox thing is if one of them starts to look like they are going for Halladay, the other might (well, if it is the BoSox that is the other) want to get in on Javy.
But, if the haul on Halladay is close to what Toronto is seeking, and if JV can even get 60% of that, you can make a good case (on total value of talent exchanged compared to cost) that you are better off dealing JV over Lowe.
Any thoughts on Adrian Beltre at two years 10-12 million? He’s only 30, I realize that his OBP and OPS have been pretty mediocre throughout his career, but he’s a great defender and he has some pop. Move Chip to first for the next two years and by the time Freeman is ready he’ll be blocked only by an injury prone 38 or 39 year old chipper who will need to rest plenty anyway. This would be augmented by either a Cameron or Marlon Byrd signing, thus strengthening our defense in all three outfield positions(assuming Diaz in left and McLouth in right) as well as our infield, making us a strong defensive team with a superb pitching staff and an offense that isn’t top flight but doesn’t have any holes in it, this would also give us a very solid bench and hopefully leave us enough wiggle room to sign a closer and an additional bullpen arm.
He’s no more 30 than he is Oxford Professor of Romantic Literature. That is a baseball age, big time.
Ithacabraves,
If you can solve your essentially unsolvable premise (getting Chipper moved to 1B) there are lots of options that could strengthen the team from many different directions.
And, I think, if Bobby asked Chipper to think about it hard, he might do it.
However, until you see some sign that it might actually happen, it is kind of a waste to speculate off of that.
Dave Cameron’s point is well taken, but the object is not necessarily to be the cheapest. Mike Cameron would cost more than Winn, but be a much better offensively and defensively.
He moved to left field for vinny effing castilla.
Adrian Beltre’s work in the field of semiotics are less well-known than his struggles in Safeco, but he made some noteworthy contributions to the field during his time as a Dodger farmhand. Here’s an excerpt from a recent piece by one of his more famous coauthors, Dr. Rudolf J.R. Parry, “Social realism in the works of Stone.”
52,
I think the haul that Toronto is seeking is ridiculous. I even think J.A. Happ would be too much for Halladay straight up. All Happ has to do over the next two years is average being a 2 win player to be more valuable than Roy Halladay’s current contract plus draft picks.
58 — And this whole time I thought he was a formalist. (well played, AAR)
Many people did, C. Shorter. That’s part of why Bill Bavasi got fired.
It’s all making sense now. heh heh
Another idiotic “unsportsmanlike” call from an SEC ref.
P.W.Hjort, you might be right, but I think the value function is exponential, not linear. The marginal value of a star — a 6-win player over a 4-win player — is greater than the marginal value of a 4-win player over a 2-win player, assuming a normal distribution of talent. Simply put, players as good as Halladay are nearly impossible to find, and are therefore correspondingly expensive. Moreover, for obvious reasons, it’s more desirable to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players. One major problem I have with Fangraphs’ dollar calculations is that they appear to be based on a linear calculation of dollars-to-WAR.
Frankly, I don’t think much of Happ, and I know you don’t either. It’s very possible that the Jays are asking too much. But I think Halladay has a bit more value than you’re implying.
64,
Teams pay for wins on a virtually linear scale on the FA market. The risk assumed by sinking so many financial resources into one player counter-balances the reward of reaping that much more production from a single roster spot. And it isn’t necessarily more valuable to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players, it’s all about context and risk.
Les Miles knows nothing about time management.
What an ending..
NUTT: I’m going to put the smallest guy on the field to face the spearhead of the onside kick rush. He jumped away from the ball. Excellent!
MILES: Oh yeah. I’m going to turn a 50-yard game-winning FG into a 60-yd, no, 70-yd no-hope FG possibility.
NUTT: Screw you, son. I’ve trained my cornerbacks to stare at desperation passes. See! Complete to the 10!
MILES: With only one second left, dipshit. Watch this.. (LSU QB inexplicably spikes ball into turf as time runs out). Game. HAT. Michigan, I’m coming, baby.
NUTT: Damn home clock. Well played, Hat. Well played.
HA HA Les, see post #3. Seriously call timeout with 30 seconds left, not 9. That cost them the win
ESPN’s breaking news is Ole Miss upsets LSU. How big of an upset is that really? Ole Miss was actually favored by -3.5
braves14’s SEC bowl projections:
BCS: Florida and Alabama
Capital One: Ole Miss 9-3
Cotton: Arkansas 8-4 (I predict a win over LSU next week)
Outback: LSU 8-4
Chic-Fil-A: Tennessee 7-5
Music City: Kentucky 7-5
Liberty: Auburn 7-5
Independence: Georgia 6-6
Papa John’s: USC 6-6
In case anyone was unaware, Les Miles is an idiot.
Many long faces here in Georgia. I enjoyed it immensely.
my tarheels have won 4 in a row. thinking we’ll go to the chic-fil-a and slap tennessee around for you guys.
#72–I did not get a chance to see it, but I am guessing that its another case where Richt just did not have his team ready to play….
is Richt eyeing the fighing Irish?
Beware Mark Richt on his way out of town…..he sure left a turd in the punchbowl here.
AAR @ 64,
that is true with respect to linear valuations, however Dave Cameron has looked at the relative values teams place on players (via paying for them in FA) and has concluded that teams DO NOT pay marginally more for exceptionally better players and those extra marginal wins even though they appear to be worth more. The pay scale IS linear in FA……one reason for this could be while two 3 win players take up that extra spot, they also allow you to diversify your risk…there are obviously two sides to this and the real answer probably lies somewhere in between, but it is interesting nonetheless.
for what its worth i tend to agree with you and value that extra marginal win more than i do the security of diversifying.
EDIT – I should have read 65 before posting this…..
sheffield said he would love to come back to atlanta. would he be a good, cheap signing? i’d take sheffield for spot starts and bench bat. he was a 3b and ss when he started out. maybe he can play some first every now and again (even though fangraphs has his 9 games at first to be pretty bad).
from DOB:
“Don’t know if it’s been mentioned here, but St. Pete Times had this note today: According to an industry source, the Rangers and White Sox have shown interest in CF B.J. Upton, and the Mets and Braves have inquired about All-Star LF Carl Crawford. The Rays have said they’re interested in discussing a long-term deal with Crawford, who is eligible to be a free agent after the 2010 season.”
oh wow. crawford would be amazing, but would cost a ton!
I read the St. Pete Times almost every morning, and I’ve been reading a lot of what Andrew Friedman is saying about the offseason. This guy isn’t Chuck LaMar. He’s a pretty reasonable person who’s not going to ask for the moon if he were to trade Upton or Crawford. If anything, he asked for too little for Aki and Edwin Jackson.
However, I really don’t think Crawford gets dealt this offseason. I also think there’s almost no chance Upton gets traded either. The Rays’ weakness is starting pitching, but I don’t think they’re looking for what we’re offering. Vazquez, Lowe, and Kawakami are probably too expensive for them, and I don’t think we’re trading Hanson or Jurrjens.
It would be really sweet to have Crawford though. Easily the best defensive LF in baseball.
So when do the Falcons bring back Morten Andersen to replace Jason Elam?
Crawford is obviously a really good player, but I don’t get why we’d be investing resources in him. Speedy left-handed hitter isn’t exactly at the top of our list of needs.
Yeah, and Crawford’s going to New York anyway. They want more speed in the outfield, and left field looks pretty open there.
To me, McLouth and Crawford aren’t far off as players. Both would be good left fielders but don’t really have the range for center. Crawford has more steals and a better average; McLouth has more power and a better arm. Surely not worth paying one $13M and another $5M or whatever McLouth makes.
We need to trade for Jimmie Foxx.
Rob at 83,
Is XX frozen also? Can we get them to thaw him?
Might be worth it.
(very underknown tremendous player. What was it, 10 straight years of over 40 HR’s?)
I don’t think Richt is going anywhere. Can’t say the same about his staff.
But last night’s game is almost completely on Joe Cox.
ububba,
Joe Cox didn’t fumble the second half kick off. He didn’t make a chicken shit late hit out of bounds on the second Kentucky posession or a chicken shit hold that was also a face mask penalty after a blocked kick (and he didn’t have anything to do with the blocked kick, or the kickoff returns past the 40).
Cox was bad in the second half. But that only made him “one of the guys.”
The real problem is that you have a coach who can’t get more than 2 quarters of effort coupled with precision out of his team in a single game and that has been the case for 8 years. I thought we got past that late in 2007, but no, it is still the same. Georgia has the talent to be a better team. We just don’t coach it up well.
Mark Richt, there are 4, FOUR, quarters in a football game.
Cliff,
I said, almost completely.
I’m not excusing any coaches here. As bad as they played—and you’d be hard-pressed to find a worse 2nd half—they still probably win if Cox doesn’t throw 2 unbelievable INTs & fire that pitch into Ealey’s gut. That’s on Cox.
Without his 3 unforced turnovers, it’s a different game, again, probably a Georgia win.
One can argue that the dumb penalties are the fault of the coaches. I’m not sure you can hang Cox’s erratic play on them.
When Cox has tried to throw short all season, he has thrown interceptions. The coaches know that. They apparently think Logan Gray will never be an SEC capable quarterback and that the two freshmen are too raw to trust. But, when the team was obviously struggling earlier (like after Tennessee), Richt decided to stick with Cox. Maybe if not, we don’t beat Vandy or Auburn. But, we would probably have a head start on setting up a team for next year.
I think the pitch fumble was Cox calling an audible that the backs behind him didn’t hear. The two second half int’s were pitiful (but that has happened all year).
By “but for” causation, probably if Branden Smith doesn’t fumble the second half kickoff, Georgia wins. If the blocked punt turns into a first down, maybe Georgia wins.
Well, QB is the main conversation UGA people have had all season.
Cox will make some big plays—and he did last night, long & short—but he’ll break your heart. He’s averaged more than 1 INT per game on a team that’s turned the ball over 26 times in 11 games. (BTW, notice how the role of fumble-prone RB Richard Samuel has been reduced to nothing?)
Apparently, neither of the redshirt QBs are Stafford or Greene material. We’re not sure what future they give us, but it’s gotta be better than Cox. And Logan Gray’s role apparently is to call fair catch on punts in our own end—that’s how well he’s regarded.
It can be painful to watch, but I’m alright with taking our lumps with Cox this year & hanging onto the redshirts.
Next year’s staff is certainly going to be different & Richt is going to feel real pressure for the first time. As I’ve said, one down year is probably OK, but not 2.
“art is distinct from sexuality”?
Not in this house! (They call me The Fireman.)
A grateful Commonwealth thanks Joe Cox and a cast of red-clad others for the early Christmas present.
Richt to Notre Dame? First I’ve heard of it. Doubt it would happen.
Someone who is named Kelly and is undefeated seems like a lock. (Unless someone named Urban declares his interest.)
Joe Cox is not nearly as big of a problem as the defense for UGA. They also haven’t run the ball well like a Georgia team typically does this year.
Braves14,
I agree 100%. Let’s face it. No one thought Joe Cox was Matt Stafford and replacing Morreno isn’t easy either. This team was rated way to high to start the season.
The defense has tons of talent, but Martinez can’t make adjustments to save his life. I would replace him and probably most of the defensive staff.
possible ND targets, Meyer/Kelly
possible Michigan target, Miles/Kelly
Richt will get another yr, but will have to make many assistant changes
Is Rodriguez out for sure at Michigan? If he is I think they offer Jim Harbaugh 4 zillion dollars. But I am not sure he is out.
ND will go after Meyer or Kelly.
Why would anyone take the Notre Dame job?
Ok let me re phrase. Why would Meyer take the ND job? After I typed the first sentence it dawned on me that ND does pay a lot of money for guys to fail to live up to unrealistic expectations.
No matter who is playing defense, 14 INTs in 11 games in unacceptable.
But almost everyone who watches UGA knows it needs a new approach on the other side of the ball.
Why would anyone take the Notre Dame job?
why, because all they really need is 4-5 wins each year and theyll find themselves in a BCS game. or at least it seems that way
The Michigan president or AD said Rodriguez will be back next year. For what that’s worth…
An established coach won’t take the ND job, I don’t think. I can see Kelly taking it, but Mark Richt or Urban Meyer would be stupid to take the job. I mean, why would you? Urban is sitting in probably the best place to be in college football: the best team in the richest state for talent. Almost the same thing with Richt. He’s got the upper hand on almost all of Georgia’s talent.
I really don’t even see how Notre Dame wins anything big unless they go undefeated, too. Florida or Georgia can get in the big game with one loss, whereas Notre Dame could be perfect and miss the BCSCG. Yeah, yeah, the prestige, but come on, I don’t get what’s so glamorous about Notre Dame. Maybe I’m just too young to appreciate their success.
It seems like Notre Dame is the place for guys who are building their college head coach careers (Willingham, Weis) to develop, not the national powerhouse they once was.
That last sentence is so jacked up grammatically, I’d like to apologize.
Why would a coach want to go to Notre Dame? A couple main reasons.
Like Urban Meyer, a practicing Catholic, it’s a lifelong dream for many coaches who grew up watching the glory days of Parseghian, Devine and, later, Holtz.
Also, with a little bit of success, coaches can get rich there. Notre Dame is a money machine. It’s the only school that has every game on national television.
And remember, when independent Notre Dame goes bowling, it doesn’t have to share its bowl money with other conference members.
So, when Charlie Weis is dismissed, he’ll never have to work another day in his life. His buyout is reportedly $15 million.
Notre Dame’s biggest issue, it seems, is that it won’t dramatically lower its standards to bring in just any athlete. As most of us know, it’s a different story in places like the SEC.
It’s an oft-repeated joke as to why Meyer went to Florida instead of Notre Dame: “You can’t get a marginal student/athlete admitted to Notre Dame, but you can get a potted plant into Florida.”
Ububba,
Why would you need to get a pot plant into UF? Don’t they grown their own?
Bama 31-10 over Auburn this week
New post.