Waiting for Glavine

Discussion topic: So everybody thinks that the Braves are going to bring back Tom Glavine, but what are the chances?

172 thoughts on “Waiting for Glavine”

  1. It makes sense in so many ways (short term commitment, hometown dollar discount, sentimentality of having Tommy finish his career in an Atlanta uniform). The only things standing in the way are Tommy’s history of caring mostly about money and the possibility that Wren could acquire a better, younger pitcher via trade or free agency.

    I say 75% chance the Braves sign Glavine. I just don’t see them willing to pay any other free agent pitcher a fair market price. They probably don’t have the trading chips to get somebody like Haren or Blanton either with both New York teams likely to be in the bidding.

  2. I hope St. Louis makes Tom an offer he can’t refuse, but I suspect it’s 99.44% Glavine signs with the Braves.

  3. 94% (I was going to say 95% but then it occured to me that 47*2=94 so I figured that seemed better.)

  4. St. Louis might be willing to drop the change on TommyG that’s necessary to overcome the hometown factor. I can’t see the Cards spending all that cash to bring back LaRussa and then stick him with a rebuilding job.

    That being said, however, I think they are more likely to try to sign someone like Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva. So, I’d say there’s a 75% chance we see Glavine back in town.

  5. James/Lillibridge/Thorman/Hernandez/Locke

    for Haren/Kotsay

    huh?

    Locke might be a keeper…

    James/Lilli/Hernandez

    Haren?

    i think that’s enough…

    Thorman/Locke for Dejesus?

  6. KC may deal DeJesus and Gathright?
    Signing Torii Hunter would create immediate Royals roster flexibility. David DeJesus could be shifted from center field to left field, where club officials believe he is a better fit, or even offered as trade bait to fill another hole. Outfielders Emil Brown and/or Joey Gathright would also be expendable — unless they replace a departing DeJesus in left. Brown could also draw time in right field if Mark Teahen is shifted to first base. — KC Star

  7. uh oh…

    Matt Harrison, is now 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA in the AFL…

    he would have looked nice in our #4 next year and then as a #2 in a few years.

  8. Is KC thinking of signing Torii Hunter? I actually think that’s a move that makes some sense, though I guess a lot of it depends on his price tag.

    from the last thread:

    ububba – I agree completely… that was my (too) subtle point, that the BCS is ridiculous and we desperately need a playoff.

    Alex R – I also agree about Kansas vs. Oregon. The BCS guy ESPN quoted said that Kansas could even leapfrog LSU if it remains unbeaten. That’s a travesty. Just because there are six ‘major’ conferences doesn’t mean they are all equal. Coming from the SEC unbeaten and coming from the Big 12 unbeaten are two very different things.

    As for Glavine: 96%.

  9. Mark Kotsay is a good defensive CF, but spending $8M on a guy coming off back surgery…dunno ’bout that.

    I know he’d bat lower in the order, but if we’re “value shoppers,” I’m not sure he fits the bill.

  10. Speaking of defense… Ryan Braun won the ROY.

    Considering his offense, it’s hard to argue; he had an OPS of 1.104 in 113 games. I guess it didn’t matter that he makes David Wright actually look like a Gold Glover. When you swing the stick like that, a lot of things can be forgiven.

    But man, he’s a butcher.

  11. Adam M,

    Completely agree. This is just one of the many factors every year why most of us (not all of us but the vast majority) scream for a tournament of some type, 8 or 16.

    The fact is, if the top 3 teams are LSU, Oregon & Kansas, and say Kansas leapfrogs either of those 1 loss teams because they are unbeaten, A) you will never really know if Kansas was better because they were able to avoid say an Oregon and B) any team with a non conference schedule like Kansas should be automatically disqualified.

    If you don’t play ONE decent non conference opponent, you have no right to claim a shot at the national title.

  12. Braun pretty much had to win, but I would have voted for Tulowitzki. I mean, here we have a guy who should have won the gold glove at shortstop, hitting 24 homers and playing a big role in taking his team to the World Series.

  13. What is Glavine’s price tage? Maddux signed for $10 mil, Schilling signed for $8 mil plus incentives that could escalate to the $10 mil mark.

  14. The impression I am getting is the only reason Glavine is considered to be a lock to come back to Atlanta is his willingness to give a hometown discount. If that’s the case, and the market for similar pitchers at similar ages is around $10M, how much of a discount does he give? 20%? Is he going to sign for $8M, or is he going to do even less and sign for $5-7M?

  15. Linecum, Haren, Blanton, Glavine: one of these things just doesn’t belong; one of these things is not like the other.

  16. Coop, I know what you’re getting at, but other than age, Blanton isn’t all that different a pitcher from 40 year old Tom Glavine. He’s not a strikeout pitcher; he’s a league-average innings eater who had a worse year in 2006 than Glavine had in 2007.

  17. From our good friend Ken Rosenthal, who, like me, is never wrong:

    “Blanton has gone 42-34 with a 4.09 ERA and averaged 208 innings in his first three full seasons — numbers that compare favorably with John Lackey’s first three full seasons for the Angels.”

    And with regard to Haren:

    “Haren, meanwhile, started the All-Star Game in July and outpitched Santana over the full season. Unlike Santana, who is a year away from free agency, and Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard, who is two years away, Haren is under contract for three more seasons — and his salaries of $4 million, $5.5 million and $6.75 million (on a club option) make him highly affordable.”

    I’m just saying that we should be careful what we ask for. We might get it.

  18. Coop,

    The impression I’ve had for a long time is that our farm system has been raped. It’s going to have to be raped again for the Braves to get one of those guys.

  19. Sam, you’re the gentleman who in a previous post labelled me the all-knowing, all-wise Coop. I still have strong convictions.

    However, I don’t get a vote, but you’re fortunate I don’t.

    I would rather gamble and trade two or three of our top prospects AND pay Haren $16.25 million over the next three years than pay Glavine the $8-10 million (plus the one year option he’ll probably demand for similar money). $16 million minimum for two years of Tommy or $16.25 for three years of Haren would not be a difficult choice for me.

    Don’t worry though. JS never asked for my advice, and so far Big Bird hasn’t either.

  20. Kansas has played a cupcake schedule, but if they win out by beating Missouri and Oklahoma, they are as deserving as an undefeated Ohio State would have been. I think Oregon would get bumped for an undefeated Kansas.

    I think Braun beat out Tulowitzki for ROY because many writers sent their ballots in before the end of the season. Also, Escobar got a vote.

  21. Andy,

    Full disclosure, my wife is an Oregon Duck, so I have a personal stake.

    That being said, and with all due respect, I agree that beating Missouri and Oklahoma would be impressive. No doubt.

    But (and maybe the do nothing NCAA needs to get off their hineys and make this a rule) if you play 3 or 4 non conference games, and not ONE of them is a major conference, legitimate opponent, then you are automatically disqualified from a BCS bid. Or at least the championship game.

    Fine, let a possible unbeaten KU team go to Fiesta, but if you play a non conf. sked. like that, you have no business getting a trip to the BCS title game.

    But Oregon got jerked around back in 2000, when they were led by Harrington, and got JUMPED by Oklahoma, a spot behind, and the Ducks were sent to the Holiday Bowl.

    And it’s not just Oregon. How about the year Oklahoma’s sub par team got a trip to face USC, rather than undefeated Auburn? There was no question it should have been USC/Auburn. Oklahoma was unquestionably the 3rd best of those teams.

    But it makes a further point as to what a joke the Big 12 is. Everyone on this site knows that if Kansas was in the SEC, they’d be 7-3 or 6-4, not 10-0.

  22. Never, Sam, I’m glad to say.

    I just endured one of your ad hominem attacks a couple of months ago when I didn’t agree with you, and I don’t forget as easily as I once did.

  23. Alex R. – I have no stake, I just think it is an interesting question.

    First, because the haven’t played anybody I don’t have any reason to believe that Kansas can beat Missouri and Oklahoma. If they do, then you have to reevaluate them.

    Second, overall schedule matters, not so much out-of-conference schedule. Beating Oklahoma would be as impressive as anything Oregon has done.

    Third, the other seasons you mentioned were controversies between teams with equal records. An undefeated BCS conference team should play for the championship over a 1-loss team.

    Fourth, I’d rather have a playoff

  24. I have a short memory when it comes to that. I get angry and irrational sometimes when I debate. It just makes me a bad debater, I suppose.

    I’ve forgotten what I did (quite frankly, I don’t want to know), and I just ask for your forgiveness then, because I ultimately, don’t want to make enemies of people. This goes to chris and Tom too, whom I know I’ve angered and done incredibly stupid things to I should have never done (that I can remember).

  25. I knew The Grit guy a little bit. He lived across the street from me when he moved to Athens from upstate New York with one of his bandmates. Saw his band a bunch, too. Really sad, that story.

    FWIW, was always a big fan of the restaurant. Whenever I’m in town, I usually stop in. And you don’t have to be a vegan to dig it—it’s that good.

  26. And you don’t have to be a vegan to dig it—it’s that good.

    Right on. It’s no Weaver D’s, but it’s mighty fine.

  27. I should note that my two absolute favorite restaurants in Athens are like 10 yards apart: Farm 255 and Clocked.

    Mmmmmmmmmm.

  28. Tigers Re-Sign Todd Jones
    According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Tigers have re-signed closer Todd Jones on one-year deal. Terms were not disclosed. The Tigers’ need for a reliever was heightened with the loss of Joel Zumaya.

  29. Glavine: 100%
    This seems a done deal from everything out there to read.

    Now, who is gonna play CF? I’m not sold on lillibridge or any other in house solution for 08.

  30. Our favorite Baldelli rumors are out there again

    Last week, the St. Petersburg Times listed Brent Lillibridge as one of the prospects the Rays may target to fill their need for a shortstop. The Braves remain high on Lillibridge and have said there is an outside chance they could use them as their center fielder next year if they’re not able to find Jones’ replacement via the trade market.

    Last year, the Braves attempted to land the Rays’ Rocco Baldelli. With Baldelli having missed most of the 2007 season and consequently enhancing his status as a health risk, the Braves would likely need the Rays to include one of their other young outfielders in the deal.

  31. MLB.com: “Molony says Tom Glavine will wait about a week and then announce he’ll pitch for the Braves in ’08. It would probably be for $8-9MM for ’08 with a mutual option for ’09.”

  32. Alex R.,

    Some mutual friends told me he’d been in a car accident not long ago that left him with some ongoing physical problems. They don’t know to what extent, if any, that contributed to what happened — just trying to make sense of it in some way. I didn’t really know him, but I liked his old band and love his restaurant. It’s a sad thing.

  33. Well, I would do that too.

    I just wish I didn’t have to hear “our farm system is bare” after that, like I heard a lot after we traded five prospects for Teixeira and Mahay. The system can always be re-stocked in a good organization.

  34. The Tigers traded for Jacque Jones; hopefully this means I don’t have to institute a no-Jacque Jones zone. For some reason, some people thought he might be a useful pickup.

  35. You know, it’s funny — Jacque Jones and Jacque Vaughn are almost equally useful. And they both spell their name wrong. I really don’t want either one on an Atlanta team ever again, or anyone with that first name, just to be safe.

  36. Tulowitzki and Braun both had stellar seasons. Really the ROY could have gone either way. I saw Braun play a couple of times this year — he looked good at the plate. For a rookie to step into hitting 3rd in a contending (at the time) lineup and hit with that kind of an OPS is pretty impressive. Sure, we could say that he was “protected” well by Prince (if you believe in that phenomenon), but he still produced as soon as he was called up and kept on hitting.

    That having been said — I think it’ll be a challenge for him to reproduce another stellar year next year. Most of his damage was done against lefty pitching. Hopefully he’ll make needed adjustments to rake on righties as well. That young Brewers team is fun to watch.

  37. O’Brien is going crazy in his latest blog post about this Charlie Morton kid we have starting for the Javelinas in the AFL. 24 years old with a 97mph fb and big hook, as well as 2 other usable pitches? Would be real nice to come up with another insurance policy for the rotation out of nowhere, and could make it easier to trade Chuck James.

  38. I don’t see us making a big splash this offseason. We’ll sign Glavine and a cheap CFer that no one will think too higly of, and maybe some other minor trade.

    Anyone expecting to be wowed?

  39. I’m not expecting to be woved, but I really don’t know what to expect. So many theories have been put out that it’s probably best to just wait and see what happens.

  40. Just a note for those worried about the farm system… don’t be. It’s top 10, prolly top 5 after the Renteria deal. Most of the talent is in the low-minors, but between Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, and Jair Jurrjens, we’ve also got impact talent ready to step in at the ML level.

  41. It’s good to hear about the farm system. We will need some players soon. Hopefully Jurrjens will turn out to be a blockbuster trade. If we get Glavine, and sign Tex, I’ll be happy with what we have. A decent CF that doesn’t cost too much (or even Lillibridge or Shafer if ready) will be fine with me. I don’t want us giving up prospects and I like our team (with the new additions) okay as is.

  42. At this point I’m almost ready to give Harris the CF position. $8 mil for Kotsay?? Hell no.

    Let B Jones and Diaz platoon in LF. The offense will be fine

  43. It looks like Charles Morton is finally putting it all together. He flew under the radar at AA during the first half of 2007–especially when Mississippi experimented with him as a reliever. They moved back to the rotation during the second half of the season and he has been impressive.

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Charlie-Morton.shtml

    Morton will probably start at Richmond and if he makes that transition, it would not surprise me to see him in Atlanta at some point in 2008.

    One final point if Morton does succeed in making it to Atlanta, his example will serve a reminder at just how unreliable minor league stats can be for predicting future performance…..Lets hope for the best….

  44. the mess get out first round pick if we sign glavine…

    but we get another team’s first round pick if they sign andruw

    and if it’s the nats (which is likely), that’s a pretty high pick. i say we sign that kid Tim Melville signed to play at UNC (he’s not coming, ala porcello, but it’s nice to dream).

  45. Coop and Stu–the fact that the Braves will lose the first round pick (#18–I believe)and it undermines my already lukewarm enthusiasm for Glavine. What makes it worse is that we will not get a first round pick for Andruw….

  46. Chris–Since offensive production in 2007 was mediocre at best, I don’t think the Braves will get a first round pick….

  47. That would be interesting if Morton figured something out. He’s been in the Braves system for awhile and has been a non-prospect. Lots of walks.

  48. Awhile back I read that Morton has always had a great curve ball–in fact, a year or so ago some thought it was the best in the system. However, apparently he had trouble starting games–meaning that he would frequently get into trouble in the early innings.

    I noticed that this year people who saw him thought that he relied on his fastball and not the curve. I have wondered if he used the fastball to deal with his early inning problems.

    The claim of a 97 mph pitch is new to me, but it maybe the case that he has gotten stronger and increased his velocity. It would be nice if all of this hangs together and he has found a way to pitch consistently.

  49. I yield to the inevitable $8 – 10 million plus $8 – 10 million option for Glavine, but I don’t like it. 1995 was a long time ago.

  50. Will the Braves really get a pick for Andruw since they haven’t offered arbitration?

    Only if Andruw Jones signs with a team before December 1.

    The Braves will get a sandwich pick for Ron Mahay though assuming they don’t sign him. They’ll offer him arbitration and get the draft pick for sure.

  51. … I’ve been wishy-washy on this whole subject, but it just hit me like a ton of bricks. What makes everyone think that the Mets will be more successful with that first round pick than the Braves have been with any of theirs in the past?

  52. The Braves’ picks since 2000 have been pretty good.

    Scott Thorman (2000) is on the big league roster and will probably be a serviceable major leaguer somewhere someday. Josh Burrus (2001) was pretty much a bust, and the Braves had no first round pick in 2003 or 2004.

    However, Jeff Francoeur (2002) and Joey Devine (2005) were pretty good picks; and while the jury’s still out on Cody Johnson (2006) and Jason Heywood (2007), they both had good years last year.

    I just hate to give the Mets anything whatsoever. (It’s good to have a team to hate, isn’t it?)

  53. First round draft pick.. who cares? This isn’t the NBA. I’ll take Glavine and the chance to win this year over some unknown prospect who won’t make the majors for 3 or 4 years at least.

  54. Top first round picks (not including supplemental) since 2000:

    Braves

    2000: Adam Wainwright
    2001: Macay McBride
    2002: Jeff Francoeur
    2003: Luis Atilano
    2005: Joey Devine
    2006: Cody Johnson
    2007: Jason Heyward

    Mets

    2000: Billy Traber
    2001: Aaron Heilman
    2002: Scott Kazmir
    2003: Lastings Milledge
    2004: Philip Humber
    2005: Mike Pelfrey

  55. I’ll take Glavine and the chance to win this year over some unknown prospect who won’t make the majors for 3 or 4 years at least.

    And I’ll take someone other than Ron running my team. Unfortunately, Wren appears to agree with him on this one.

    BTW, even if we had offered arbitration to Andruw, we wouldn’t get the Nats’ first-round pick. We’d get their second-round pick, because they pick in the top half of teams.

  56. Peter Kozma
    Kyle Drabek
    Cesar Carrillo
    Josh Fields
    Bradley Snyder
    Royce Ring
    Aaron Heilman
    Miguel Negron

    The guys who’ve gone 18th overall since 2000.

  57. I agree with Ron. If the Braves’ brass decide this team can compete for the World Series in 2008, feel Glavine is capable and gives them a better chance at making the playoffs next season, go for it.

    Seriously, what are the real odds that draft pick becomes even a league-average player in 2012 and beyond?

  58. #94

    Scott Thorman shows no sign whatsoever that he’ll ever be a capable major league player. I don’t know the number of first basemen who’ve posted a .260 OBP through age 25 who have gone on to have productive major league careers, but I’m guessing it’s zero.

  59. I hate giving up the draft pick for Glavine. Hopefully the team will use the money allotted for the #18 pick to go after a talented, young Latin America player similar to the Teheran signing this year.

  60. First round picks don’t mean that much in baseball. Lots of great players come much later. I think the Braves are going for it this year, probably not expecting to be able to sign Tex. Glavine will give the team some serviceable innings and retire as a Brave. I think they will have a good chance to at least make the playoffs and maybe win the league. What I don’t like about this is that it illustrates the trap that teams playing in a weak league fall into, ie, recognizing that the league is winnable and therefore making short-term moves that improve the team enough to win that league. Hopefully, the Braves won’t settle for that.

  61. Well, if it’s any consolation, there are other ways to build the farm system than simply to draft blue chippers. Take the Renteria deal. I think Wren is attempting to plan for both next year and several beyond.

    That said, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t an adjustment after Cox, Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper, Tex, and even Hudson move on. That won’t all be happening at once, but by 2010 the team leaders will look extremely different.

  62. There is a 50% chance that we sign Glavine, and a 50% chance that we trade for Peavey, or Haren, or Bedard. Any time you ask what the chances are for a two outcome event, the chance of one of those things happening is 50%. Sign Glavine, sign Patterson, who will be cheaper and better than Cameron, and go with the team we have.

    The farm is well stocked to succeed beyond this year, the scouts have been doing a great job of finding high end talent, and there is a lot of it at the lower levels. So go for it now, and then slowly build it back up.

  63. Charlie Morton has to be added to the 40-man roster soon or he’ll be exposed to the rule-5 draft, which is December 6.

  64. Braves interested in Masashi Kobayashi.

    http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nikkansports.com%2Fbaseball%2Fp-bb-tp0-20071103-278281.html&langpair=ja%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools

    (Via Google Translation)

    Doubt they’ll get him, and even if they did who really knows if he’ll be any good out of the bullpen. The rumors are the Braves want him (or even Todd Jones before he signed with the Tigers) to close. Maybe they think Soriano gives up too many homers.

  65. Uh, Cameron posted an OPS 70 points higher playing in the most pitching-friendly park in baseball. He’s also the better center fielder. He may be more expensive, but he is MUCH better than Corey Patterson. It’s not even a question.

    In fact, I’d go so far to say that if Corey Patterson is the Braves starting center fielder next season, you can kiss the playoffs goodbye. That guy is that bad. I’ve never seen (non-Philly) fan bases more galvanized against a player like I have in Chicago and Baltimore. Please no.

  66. I didn’t see the DOB blog posting, but I have seen Morton pitch a couple of times in the AFL this year. He looks PHENOMENAL. The radar guns do clock him as high as 97, though 93-95 is more consistent. His curve is as good as advertised- it really is a devastating pitch. I’m not sure about the two other serviceable pitches; I have seen a change and that’s it, though I am not scout, maybe I missed a slider or something. The catch is, he has a history of terrible control- not that I have seen in two outings, but that’s a small sample size- and he’s OLD for the AFL, which means all my raving about needs to be heavily discounted. If it were me, I would invite him to camp and hope he could make the team as a long reliever/mop-up man, and see if he could hold his own and move into a more prominent role as the season progressed. Given his age and his track record I don’t think it is likely; but from a pure “stuff” perspective, to my untrained eyes he compares favorably to several people in the Braves’ bullpen.

  67. It’s good to have a beat writer like DOB. People mature (Some of y’all do, anyway; some of us grow old but not up.) at different rates, and it sounds like Old Man Morton on his 24th birthday didn’t do himself any harm.

    I wonder if he’s relateed to Carl Morton?

  68. @106,

    i think this is why Dejesus would be a good pickup. play him for 1-1.5 years (in his prime) and hopefully when schafer/hernandez is ready we can swap him just like renteria for more talent. on a side note, im slightly worries about haren if only because oakland usually waits to the last year (or second last) when trading their players to get more young talent..if they are thinking of trading with 3 years left, does that mean they think he’s reached his highest value? or, i don’t know but his numbers this past year were outstanding.

  69. Also, Keith Law is less than sanguine about Tom Terrific in 2008:

    Glavine may try to pitch one more year, but he’d be wise to remember the ignominious end of another lefty’s career, that of Steve Carlton. Carlton didn’t know when to walk away, and after a terrible 1987, Carlton tried to come back one more time and gave up 19 runs in nine-plus innings before he was released. Glavine’s 2007 wasn’t as bad as Carlton’s last full season, but he posted one of the worst earned-run averages of his career, one of the worst groundball rates of his career and one of his worst strikeout rates of his career. Glavine’s stuff is down. His fastball is 80-84 mph, his change at 74-75 with visible slowing of his arm, his slow-roller curve at 75-77 — and none of it able to miss bats. Glavine has to pitch hitters away and avoid contact; if he’s not getting something extra on the outside corner, he’s doomed. He’ll get an offer if he wants to pitch, but even in a big park in the National League, he’s a 50-50 shot to get released or retire midyear. It’s been a great run, Tom — don’t push it.

  70. @116: You know a writer thinks bad of you when he places Marcus Giles higher on the list of desirable free agents.

  71. I know Glavine is declining and I haven’t really decided if I think he is going to be mediocre next year or bomb, but I do know that Glavine was 5th in the NL with 23 quality starts last year so I think he’s got a little more in the tank that Keith Law is giving him credit for.

  72. plus I dont think Glavine is done. When Carlos Silva is wanting 4/$50 on the open market, you should be happy to get Glavine at 1-2 yrs 8 mil each. Yes you give up a draft pick, but its not like our #1 picks have been all that great.
    Almost everyone here, besides me, hates Frenchy, weve traded McBride, the Braves/Bobby rushed Devine and screwed him up. If we get 25-30 starts from Glavine and around a 3.8-4.00ERA for $7-8 mil then its a great sign.

  73. Yeah, but I don’t think Glavine is going to suck. If he does exactly what he did in 2007 (23 quality starts, fifth most in the NL and over 200 innings), he’d be a big upgrade.

  74. If we get 25-30 starts from Glavine and around a 3.8-4.00ERA for $7-8 mil then its a great sign.

    Well, yeah, obviously. I think the point is that the ERA figure you’re projecting there is pretty unlikely.

  75. I think it’s pretty clear from that article why ububba so staunchly defends Mark Bradley all the time. :)

  76. “If we get 25-30 starts from Glavine and around a 3.8-4.00ERA for $7-8 mil then its a great sign.

    Well, yeah, obviously. I think the point is that the ERA figure you’re projecting there is pretty unlikely.”

    why is that unlikely?

    Glavine’s Era previous years

    1999 – 4.12
    2000 – 3.40
    2001 – 3.57
    2002 – 2.96
    2003 – 4.52
    2004 – 3.60
    2005 – 3.53
    2006 – 3.82
    2007 – 4.45

    If your just taking last years performance instead of the whole picture then I can see how you would think he’s getting worse or he’s done. The again you could say the same thing about his 1999 and 2003 season. Put Pedro on their staff last year and Glavine probably relaxes a bit more and could possibly have put up better numbers. He’s been in the top 7 for NL quality starts for the last 3 years. I dont think 25-30 starts at 4.0 is unrealistic, but then again maybe he is done. Ill take a one year chance

  77. When looking at pitchers or players who are in their 40s I think it makes more sense to look at their previous year than to their previous 3-5 years.

  78. It’s incredibly unlikey. I would bet Glavine will be much closer to 4.8-5.0 than to 3.8-4.0. I’ll be happily surprised if that’s not the case, but like some others here, I’d rather not gamble away $8-10 million and a 1st round pick on that happening. I’d rather use that money towards a real-life, major league center fielder who plays defense, runs, and hits. But of course, it seems moot because the Braves are probably going to sign him. We’ll move on and see what happens.

  79. But ERA isn’t necessarily the best predictor of future ERA.

    Not that I know what any of this means, but as I look at his stats on THT and BPro, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is going way up, his PRAA (pitcher-only runs above average) is going way down (pitching runs above average), his SLG against has been steadily increasing, as has his ground-ball percentage.

    Now, as I say, I really know next to nothing about statistics. But the numbers appear to indicate that the 0.60 leap in ERA this year may be real.

  80. But ERA isn’t necessarily the best predictor of future ERA.

    “Not that I know what any of this means, but as I look at his stats on THT and BPro, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is going way up, his PRAA (pitcher-only runs above average) is going way down (pitching runs above average), his SLG against has been steadily increasing, as has his ground-ball percentage.”

    Well Im probably wrong then

  81. Re: Law on Glavine –

    The BP people (wasn’t Law on BP?) have been predicting Glavine’s decline for longer than they’ve been pushing for Chipper to LF. He’s a risk sure, but his performance has always been better than his numbers would indicate.

  82. If you take out his career worst last start, Glavine’s era for the year was like 4.14. We’re not counting on him to be a #1 or #2. We’re counting on him to pitch about like Chuck James but pitch more innings which pretty accurately describes Tommy’s 2007 season. I have more faith in an aging Glavine than I do in any other starter that pitched for us last year not named Hudson or Smoltz and certainly more than Mike Hampton. Given the hometown discount and the fact that we wouldn’t have to give up the prospects who many of you are so in love with to get Tommy, signing him seems like a no brainer to me.

  83. I just think the Braves are doing the urgent instead of the important.

    IMO, getting Texiera extended is Job One, because every other move is so dramatically affected by whether or not this is done.

    Signing Glavine is much sound and fury signifying not much more than Chuck James. It’s kinda like Congress passing a resolution against dog fighting – not many objections but not much accomplished, either.

    Unless the anti-Christ flatly refuses to negotiate an extension, no significant monies should be earmarked until this is accomplished.

  84. AAR @ 130,

    out of curiosity what do those numbers indicate after his 2003 season when his ERA shot up to 4.52? he seemed to come down each fo the next two seasons after that (at least in ERA), but one could have made the argument after that season he was done but every year since has been better, at least in ERA. just curious what those stats indicate for predicting his 2004 season from his 2003?

  85. @107,

    Justin.

    There are two possible outcomes when I go by a lottery ticket. 1. I lose 2. I win.

    If you can make that 50 / 50 I will give you $100,000 for your expertise.

  86. does anyone think the Braves have more than a 50/50 chance in resigning Tex after this season. If he becomes a FA, I dont believe he’ll be a brave in 2009. I see an NY team/AL team offering him $24-25 per and dont see us matching it

  87. @139 I think it’s possible, but probably unlikely. I’d like to see the Braves resign him, but I think the Andruw hometown discount scenario is a rare one.

  88. And the hometown discount would be the only way the Braves would compete with those NY/AL team offers.

  89. Agree with csg. The Braves have extended Boras clients in the past (Maddux) but it seems unlikely that Teixera won’t go to the market especially since it’s highly unlikely that the Braves would give him an overwhelming offer. I think the Braves have no choice but to try to win now. After this year, Tex is probably gone, Smoltz’s arm might fall off, etc. In 2009, I suspect you start seeing the young guys. Glavine is certainly a risk and I would prefer not to have two guys in the rotation over 40 but, but assuming that you need or want to win this year, it’s probably the only realistic alternative.

  90. I hope we make a serious run at Tex. We’re taking Hampton’s ridiculous contract off the books which will help and also I just don’t see us giving up 5 prospects (4 very good ones) without making a serious run at signing him. An in-season extension though, I agree, just isn’t gonna happen.

  91. Unless ownership decides to greatly increase the payroll, I can’t see the Braves being able to afford Teixeira and still field a competitive club.

  92. When are these guys under contract till?

    Chipper
    Tex – 2008
    Smoltz – 2009
    Hudson – 2009
    Hampton – 2008
    McCann –
    Soriano – 2008
    Gonzalez – 2009

    are those right?

  93. If anyone cares, the Iron Bowl is now set for a 7 PM start from Jordan-Hare.

    The last time the Iron Bowl was under the lights, Auburn fans were unsure if Tuberville would even coach another game at Auburn.

    The first play of the game was pretty freakin’ sweet – I was there:

  94. I thought Soriano and Gonzalez were both 2009 FA’s, but I could be wrong. Wasn’t last year Soriano’s 1st arb-eligible season?

    I think Mccann was 2012 with team option for 2013, and I think Hudson has an option (mutual?) for 2010.

  95. The Mets get out first round pick if we sign glavine… but we get another team’s first round pick if they sign Andruw. And if it’s the Nats (which is likely), that’s a pretty high pick.

    #83, very good point. I don’t think it’s “likely” that the Nats will sign Andruw unless they throw a ton of money at him and nobody else is interested, but I’ll root for them to sign him now. If their pick is in the Top 5 (I have no idea), it might land us another Chipper.

  96. Andruw would net us a sandwich pick as a type B free agent, if he is signed before the arb-deadline (since we won’t offer him arb). It is probably good that he wasn’t type A because a team would have been unlikely to sign him before the deadline if they had to give up a pick. since the sandwich picks aren’t “given up”, it is more likely a team will make a play at Andruw earlier, hopefully early enough for us.

  97. No, Tom. First of all, even if Andruw were a Type A and the Nats signed him, we’d get their second-round pick, not their first. Teams in the top half of the draft lose their second rounder.

    Secondly, Andruw is Type B, which means we can’t get anyone’s first rounder.

  98. Thanks for the information, everyone. Is there a place on the web where one can find that sort of information?

  99. I think that Marc Schneider is right: the Braves are left trying to make a run in 2008 (in which case signing Glavine for one year makes sense)and then major changes are inevitable.

    I am afraid that Boras will not allow Tex to sign an extension during the offseason. The problem with dealing with Boras is that the Braves will never get the chance to talk to Tex.

    JS intended for Tex to help with two title chases and now we are left with one opportunity to take advantage of the trade.

    Still, if the Braves can add a CF, Glavine and one more quality starter, then their chances in 2008 are better than they have been in recent years….

  100. Blake, because I’m only barely statistically literate I can’t give you a complete answer, but here’s what I see from a quick glance. Tom’s awful 2003 season was characterized by a precipitous drop in his K rate, as he again suffered in 2007. By any measure, conventional or otherwise, including the advanced BPro metrics (PRAA, STF), it was his worst season in almost 15 years. 2004, 2005, and 2006 were better than 2003, but each was progressively worse than the last, and then his strikeouts collapsed in 2007, as did his ERA, PRAA, etc.

  101. Andruw is a Type B. No first round pick, we get a “Sandwich Pick”, which is a pick ADDED to the draft between the first and second rounds. It does not cost the signing team anything.

    Furthermore, in the case of signing a Type A free agent, if the signing team’s pick is in the first half of the draft, then they keep their pick, and lose their NEXT pick, either their second round pick, or any first round compensation picks, or any “sandwich” picks.

    And that’s only IF we offer arbitration, or if he signs before Dec 1.

    The Braves will not offer arbitration, because he just might take it, and Boras will likely hold him out until after other free-agent CFers are all signed. That’s his strategy.

    The Braves will likely get nothing for Andruw.

  102. While we likely won’t get anything for Andruw, Mahay is a lock for a Compensation round pick as a type B free agent. It will be important to remember in the Tex trade if we don’t resign him that we also have to add Mahay’s pick this year and Tex’s two picks next year to the Braves side of the ledger. That’s three (longer term) prospects we get back.

  103. I’m just trying to remember all these rules. So even if Mahay signs with someone after Dec. 1st, we still get a sandwhich pick because we have or will offer him arbitration. Correct?

  104. Yeah, I imagine the Braves will offer Mahay arbitration. And if they do, and he does leave, yes we will get a sandwich pick.

  105. When are the sandwich picks, ie, are they between the first and second rounds? Does it depend on the quality of the player? It’s hard to believe that you would get the same pick for Ron Mahay as for Andruw Jones.

  106. The sandwich picks are extra picks added between the first and second. There are rules about which sandwich pick comes first, but I’m not clear on how all of that works.

  107. The FA ratings take only the past 2 years in to account, and they compare a player against other players at his position group. Andruw was compared against all outfielders, first basemen and DH’s and came out NOT being in the top 20% but inside of the top 40%.

    Ron Mahay was compared against other relief pitchers and came out in that same slot, between 20% and 40%. Theres an article somewhere on what stats are used in the comparison, I’ll look for it. But I don’t know how each stat is weighted.

    But basically, Andruw was that bad last year, and the competition in his position group is that strong.

  108. If we don’t resign Tex, then taking a one year flyer of Glavine makes sense. It’s win this year or bust. So with Tex gone after this year, and with Glavine and Hampton’s salaries gone also, we’re in a position to consolidate in ’09, and then perhaps make a Rockies-type run in 2010, with Schaeffer, Heyward, Hernandez, Lillibridge, McCann, and Frenchy to build around offensively.

    Glavine may have a hard time pitching with that giant fork sticking out his back, but it’s worth the risk in my opinion, to see if he can duplicate his 2007 for us next year. Which might be enough to put us over the top.

  109. While I’m here, I wanted to post some stuff I put together about Tom Glavine.

    Looking at Glavine, I looked at his actual GAMES.

    Out of 34 starts last year, there were 7 games where he allowed 5 earned runs or more, that’s to say, 7 games where he went out there and just didn’t have it.

    Here are those 7 games:

    Jun 10 L – 9 er, 4.1 IP, Team L
    Jun 16 L – 7 er, 4.0 IP, Team L
    Jul 02 L – 6 er, 6.0 IP, Team L
    Jul 19 N – 6 er, 2.0 IP, Team W
    Aug 23 N – 6 er, 5.0 IP, Team L
    Sep 25 L – 6 er, 5.0 IP, Team L
    Sep 30 L – 7 er, 0.1 IP, Team L

    47 ER, 26.2 IP 15.84 ERA

    Pretty ugly.

    But taking those numbers in to account, in his other 27 starts, he allowed 52 ER in 173.2 IP for a 2.61 ERA.

    I know that sounds like a revisionist history. But if we’re talking about a third or fourth starter, I REALLY don’t CARE about rate-stats. I think individual games are what matter.

    A loss is a loss, I don’t care if you gave up 2 runs and lost, or gave up 9. It’s still one loss in the standings.

    So yes, 7 times he went out and pitched like Mark Redman. But he pitched 27 games like a Cy Young candidate.

    I also point to the 23 quality starts he threw. I know that the requirements for a quality start aren’t much, 6 IP and 3 ER. You can throw a minimum quality start for 34 starts, and end up with a 4.50 ERA and 204 IP. (Glavine actually ended up at 4.45 200.1)

    But in his quality starts, Glavine pitched 153.1 innings allowing 38 ER, for a 2.16 ERA. That’s not skating by. When he was quality, which was 23 out of 34 times, he was a WINNER.

    He’s not done. I just don’t believe it. I know his last two starts both in his Redman-esque category. But look at his month of September:

    Sep 02 W – 1 er, 8.0 IP, Team W, QS
    Sep 08 W – 1 er, 7.0 IP, Team W, QS
    Sep 14 N – 2 er, 7.2 IP, Team L, QS
    Sep 20 N – 4 er, 5.0 IP, Team L
    Sep 25 L – 6 er, 5.0 IP, Team L
    Sep 30 L – 7 er, 0.1 IP, Team L

    By the time he took the mound in that Sep 20 game, he’d already thrown 190 innings and was 13-6 with a 3.88 ERA.

    I’ll take him.

    When I get a few free hours I’m going to look at both Smoltz and Chuck James in the same game-by-game manner just to compare.

  110. Glavine prediction:

    1 year, $9M
    IP: 50
    ERA: 6.45
    K: 3
    W-L: 2-6

    Love the guy, but watching him pitch most of this year, he is done. Against a patient lineup, it would be the Met’s 162nd game on a continuous loop. Wait for him to come into the strike zone with that batting practice fastball and smack it into one of the gaps. Rinse and repeat.

    Between Glavine and Hampton next year, you will have a total of about half a season of a bad starting pitcher. I hope I’m wrong.

  111. AAR, thanks for answering even if you aren’t the most statistically-oriented. I’m an amateur myself as well and before I said anything I wanted to get your opinion on that 2003 season. My main point with the Glavine situation is that people who think its a bad move largely feel that the money could be spend better elsewhere. I wholeheartedly disagree. Even if Glavine puts up an ERA of 5 over 25 starts it still seems like the best we could acquire on this market if we aren’t willing to spend 4/44 or 5/60 on a Silva type pitcher. This is a great short-term move because we would have killed for those numbers consistently in the bottom of our rotation last year. I won’t mention the added influence he could have on our young pitchers but that is another marginal benefit, along with the motivation of finishing up where he started. And the argument that signing Glavine would prevent us from signing Tex is weak at best. Any extensions for Tex (before this season seems unlikely, but even if it was) would likely apply to next year, meaning he will take the money he gets in arb this year (13 mill), not the additional salary long term (20+ mill), which is 7+ mill that we wouldn’t spend this year on a new contract anyway. and for the record I’d rather have Glavine with lillibridge in center than no glavine and kotsay/cameron at 8 million per to hit eighth anyway.

    I’d much rather get Glavine + Haren/etc. than just Glavine, but a rotation of SMoltz, Hudson, Haren, and then Hampton and the kids (assuming Chuck traded for Haren) doesn’t inspire confidence because we’d still potentially have 2 black holes like last year. ideally then Glavine isn’t “it”, but if he is at least we still have james and really only 1 spot is a crapshoot.

  112. I’m more likely to side with #164 on this. Think about most of Tom’s career with the Braves. He almost always had a few games a year when he wasnt getting calls on the corners, and he was pounded. Maddux was the same way. Yes, we are going to overpay for him, but I think he can provide just what we need, a solid #4. Tommy’s not done. He’s always been a control pitcher, so unless he suddenly forgets how to throw a strike, he will be very very beneficial to that rotation.

  113. I’m not sure how much stock I put into this idea, but would having a control-pitching left-hander with Glavine’s resume around help Chuck James any? Veteran guidance and all that?

  114. Re: #164

    Also notice that in all but two of those starts, Glavine made it to the 4th inning. With the way things went last year, I think that would have been good enough to at least give us a chance, if not in that specific game, in later games in the series. How many times did we blowout the bullpen in game one of a series and completely kill the rest of the series?

  115. James,

    Well just looking at Chuck James, 11 times in 30 starts did he complete the 6th. Glavine did that 26 times in 34 starts.

    Four times did Chuck not complete 4 innings. Twice more he didn’t complete 5. Those numbers are 2 and 2 for Glavine. That leaves 13 starts where Chuck completed 5 but couldn’t get through 6. That number is 4 for Glavine.

    If you want to look at Mark Redman, Kyle Davies, Anthony Lerew, Buddy Carlyle, Lance Cormier and Jo Jo Reyes… 32 times that group couldn’t throw 5, out of 65 starts.

    Twice for Smoltz, out of 32 starts. Three times for Hudson out 34. Four times for Glavine in 34 starts.. Six times for Chuck James in 30 starts.

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