I was really encouraged by Horacio’s outing last night. He still didn’t get any strikeouts, but he got a lot of ground balls, a better than 2:1 ratio. If he can continue that, he can still be effective without lots of strikeouts. There’s a term for fly ball pitchers who don’t strike anyone out: it is “insurance salesman”. But a lefty who holds runners well and is a good athlete can last a long time without high strikeout totals — if he gets ground balls.
At the same time, I want to clarify my statement from last night — he screwed up. That doesn’t mean he deserved to lose (and Bobby should have lifted him since he was clearly tiring in the seventh) but the runs that scored were largely his fault, and that’s because he made a bonehead play on the bunt. You have to pick up the ball cleanly or you’re courting disaster. But because he was thinking about throwing to second, he didn’t get a grip on the ball, and that led to the rest of the play. If he had just accepted the out given him, he would have been in a much better position to get out of it, or for a reliever to get out of it as the case may be.
That brings me to the bunt, and why it’s not as bad of a play as some analysts claim. I think I’ve written this before, but… If players were rational and always took the easy out, then it would be a bad play. But sometimes they screw up trying to get the lead runner, and what happens? You get a fielders’ choice, no out, and runners first and second. Or the shortstop throws it away trying to turn the double play and the batter gets to second. Or, most often, the pitcher or the first baseman throws it into center field and you get first and third or second and third. This happens enough that the case against the bunt is not cut and dried.
Finally, if you haven’t seen it yet, the Orioles are considering drafting Jeffrey Maier. I don’t know the Braves equivalent — hiring Jim Leyritz as manager? Letting Eric Gregg open a taco stand in the outfield concourse?
If you read “The Book” (by mgl, tango, and andy dolphin), that’s exactly the point they make about the sacrifice. it’s actually better than people think because of the range of outcomes from an attempted sacrifice.
Orioles drafting Maier is the equivalent of the Braves keeping Reitsma as the closer..
No sense in doing either..
Eric Gregg has a bar in Citizen’s Bank Park, doesn’t he? What was widder, his strike zone, or his ass?
Don’t forget that Renteria saved Ramirez from an error–and perhaps a run–by digging a throw out of the dirt and getting the force at second earlier in the game. Ramirez is obviously thinking out there on the mound, which is good, but he still tends to rush. He’ll settle down. I’m very encouraged by his last two outings.
I agree – no reason Horacio should have been out there to start that inning. Even though I can sort of agree with not wasting a pinch-hitter with 2 outs and no one on, he was pretty much done. It took an awesome double play for him to pitch out of his previous inning of work.
It is encouraging to see him though, the cutter was the pitch responsible for the majority of his homers last year, and if ditching that turns him into a GB pitcher, then I’m all for it.
As far as Maier, well, it could be karmic turnaround. Were I an Orioles fan, I’d probably be grasping at any kind of straw to turn around that franchise, which has been in a tailspin since his 15 minutes of fame (as well as umpire infamy).
Charlie Liebrandt as pitching coach.
Rerun as strength and conditioning coach.
Stan Belinda’s still available for the bullpen, right? Or Jeff Reardon?
Regarding the bunt, Mac makes a point I get tired of debating with people: The bunt oftentimes results in the defense trying to make plays it can’t, and wild things can occur from attempting to do something you’re not really used to–like making a 1 to 6 force play after throwing a pitch, hopping off the mound, bending over to field a ball & deciding where to throw, gathering yourself & making a good, quick throw.
I tell that to Yankee fans all the time, even though they should know better than anyone that a botched sac basically cost them the 2001 WS. (But then again, they rarely bunt in the AL, but that’s another story…)
I put this on a previous post: From my faux-omniscient TV vantage point, I just didn’t think last night’s bunt was bunted hard enough. In my view, any play at second seemed like an unwarranted risk, especially as HoRam had his back to the play. When the ball was bunted, my very first thought was: “Don’t try to go to second. You don’t have a play.”
From the Maier article:
“Pitcher Scott Erickson, who started the game for the Orioles and was in line to get the win before Armando Benitez served up the fateful pitch in the eighth inning to Jeter, said he hopes Maier makes it to the major leagues, “just so I can drill him — I’d like to get one shot at him.””
Jesus. I know the guy is 22 now, but Erickson’s rage is directed at a 12 year old boy. I think the only thing that makes this anything less than repugnant is the fact that, given his recent track record, Erickson couldn’t hit the side of a barn, let alone a batter.
Good points about the varied range of outcomes on a bunt. However, you have to weigh the effects of ‘unsuccessful’ bunts as well – that is, strikeouts w/ no advance (though strikeouts at least prevent hitting into a double play – not that I’m saying strikeouts are totally preferable – taken to an extreme you’d say ‘well, every batter ought to strike out, then you’d have no double plays’, which is of course absurd), or actually getting a successful force out of an advance runner.
I know BP and some sites have made attempts to quantify this argument – IIRC they came to the conclusion that a bunt is still a bad play. But they are starting off from a position that has a bias against bunts to begin with, so I’m not saying take their word as gospel.
Just wanted to emphasize that there are potential outcomes that favor either side
Maier has a better shot to make it to the big leagues than Scott Erickson does now
To me, what was most disgraceful in the entire Maier episode was how the Yankee management embraced him & his actions. They gave him free tickets to the next game, had him pose for pictures with the local tabloids, bascially rewarded him for his actions.
Of course, if it were an Oriole HR that he created, he would’ve become the Yankee version of Bartman.