The Braves have just two major free agents, Rafael Furcal and Kyle Farnsworth. They also have an option on John Thomson: $4.75 million or a $500K buyout. Unlike previous years (when it was pretty clear from the beginning that few top players, if any, would be returning) the Braves might try to resign either Furcal or Farnsworth or both. However, I put the odds of resigning either at about 50 percent.
Last year a lot of shortstops were on the market, but this year it’s pretty much just Furcal. Given the standards set last year, it seems unlikely that the Braves will match the offers he’s likely to get. Edgar Renteria, who is just about even with Furcal as a player, got four years and $40 million last year. Orlando Cabrera got four years, $32 million. Jimmy Rollins, who wouldn’t have even been a free agent yet, got five years, $40 million during the season.
Given those standards, I don’t see Furcal getting any less than Cabrera got, and he might get more than Renteria. Even if the Braves could afford it, would they really lock themselves into four or five years with a guy with two DUIs? At the same time, are they willing to give him up with no real replacement? The Braves do have a shortstop of sorts on the roster in Wilson Betemit, but they don’t trust his defense and don’t seem to really believe in his bat either. There’s no real leadoff type ready to replace Furcal, though personally I think Marcus Giles would be better than Furcal. (OBP+2B > SB.) I think that the Braves would be willing for Cabrera money — $8 million a year would be a $2.4 million raise on his 2005 rates — but I’m certain the Cubs will offer more.
Farnsworth’s disastrous Game Four probably lowered his asking price, but also made it less likely that the Braves would want him back. He did thrive in the regular season with the team. Ironically, since he had such a big lead yesterday it wasn’t a blown save, so he’s still perfect in save situations with the team. I think that the Braves probably want him back, but I don’t see them offering more than two years and he will certainly want more. Still, he might be back, if (a) nobody else will guarantee a closer job, and (b) neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox offer closer money long-term for him to set up.
There are also some older players who are free agents, Julio Franco, Brian Jordan, and Eddie Perez. Jordan and Perez should retire, and Perez probably will. He was trotted out in a game after the Braves clinched apparently for a valedictory AB but can’t catch anymore and never really could hit, and probably will take a coaching job in the organization. Jordan might think he can still play; hopefully the Braves realize he can’t. Franco will certainly be brought back unless someone (the Mets?) makes a better offer. Jim Brower may be a free agent; I’m not sure about his service time. He pitched well enough after coming back from Richmond that I’d like him back but not for any real money.
Ironically, since he had such a big lead yesterday it wasn’t a blown save, so he’s still perfect in save situations with the team.
I think you are mistaken. Two innings, with a five run lead and two men on base, I think, would have qualified for a save. Let me rumble around for a bit …
Oops, it looks like I’m wrong and Mac had it right. Here is the rule:
Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: (1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and (2) He is not the winning pitcher; and (3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces); or (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.
With two on, up by five, the “on deck hitter” was only the fourth run so Farns was not eligible for a save.
The thought of Julio (my favorite player) on the Mets just made me throw up in my mouth. Thanks.
Here’s my initial take, very open for discsussion, i encourage more ideas, even radical changes, but I think this is pretty close to what the team will actually look like
Smoltz $8
Furcal $9
Hudson $4
Thompson $4.75
Giles $4
Chipper $17
Hampton $4
Andruw $13
$63.75 is how I see it with Furcal resigned at 9$ per and M. Giles making $4M from arbitration.
that leaves roughly $16M to fill out the roster.
Doing a little more (rough) work….
Smoltz $8
Hudson $4
Thompson $4.75
Sosa $1
Ramirez $1
(Hampton) $4
James $0.30
Davies $0.30
McBride $0.30
Devine $0.30
Boyer $0.30
Farnsworth $4
Pitcher X
Laroche $0.50
Franco $1
Giles $4
Langerhans $.50
Furcal $9
Betemit $0.50
Chipper $17
Marte $0.30
Estrada $1
B. Giles $6 (THOUE)*
Andruw $13
Francoeur $0.30
McCann $0.30
Total Payroll – $81M + pitcher X’s salary
*THOE = Totally Hypothetical Optimistic Unrealistic Estimate
These are just my guesses and estimates, anyone can tweak it and make trades/changes to it, I encourage it because i like seeing people’s ideas.
This is just one hypothetical roster and payroll I would like to see next year. Any other ideas are welcome. Keep in mind i dont really know the minimum salary and estimated it at 300K. Dollar values above are all in Millions.
I dont actually believe Furcal, Brian Giles, or Farnsworth could or would be had for the amounts I estimated but its my first idea.
I think it gives us a complete position roster with necessary backups for each position (4OF, and a backup for each position)
We need a more reliable pen than I have here, so anyone with ideas please post.
Also, I am keeping KJ off the major league roster for the time being, and I think Sosa and Estrada might be traded as well, for what i do not know.
there it is.
Mac, first thing, thanks for putting in the time and effort to Braves Journal. Great place for a Braves fan to come.
On Furcal. He is not only the best SS free agent he might be the best free agent period. Still young and with these second half stats: .394 .474 .322 he is going to be a zillionare. Our only hope of getting him back is either a hometown discount or another ‘market correction’.
I’m not sure if the Braves want Farnsworth back. He compiled some nice stats for us but watching him play was a high wire act. He seemed to allow at least one baserunner in each of his appearances. As much as I don’t want to believe in the closer myth I’m not sure he proved he was worth closer money.
Finally I would like to say that as frustrated as I am by our playoff debacle, I also think that this season was one of the best in the team’s history. 18 rookies, your super star hitter missing 56 games or so, starting pitchers on the disabled list, 100 games with a couple of creaky old men playing in hitters positions, an unreliable bullpen, and two teams the Marlins and the Phils that on paper were better than us. Its quite an accomplishment that we made the post season. Despite the ribbing I’m going to take from my Yankees friend I’m a proud Atlanta Braves fan.
Mac, keep the hot stove stoked. I’ll be looking in to see what others think is going to happen with our great team.
I would at least offer Furcal arbitration. Maybe he gets $9 million in that scenario, but it’s only a one-year deal, so we can watch the development of Escobar and Andrus (who is probably 3 years off, but I have no idea) and have a better idea where everything sits.
I’ll readily admit that he is horribly inconsistent, but I think more of Furcal than most. He has become a tremendous fielder by eliminating the stupid errors. His range and arm are pretty much unparalleled in the big leagues right now.
Farnsworth, I don’t know. I don’t think it would be a problem of money. He simply isn’t going to break the bank anywhere, but I imagine he wants to be guaranteed first shot at the closer’s role wherever he goes. And as well as he pitched down the stretch, I don’t know if he would be a reliable closer over the length of the season.
As for shopping elsewhere. Bullpen and another quality hitter is what I hope they pursue. If Furcal leaves, my guess is the next generation of Walt Weiss clones will be with us.
I completely agree with offering Furcal arbitration. Frankly, I think he’ll decline it, giving the Braves draft picks, but if he doesn’t, it wouldn’t be so bad to have him another year at an arbitration price.
I think Brian Giles at a “discount” is still 8-9 million bones for 3 years. I’ve seen Yankee, Sox, Met, and Cub fans fawning at him so long as he’s “no more than” $12m or so a year. Discounts are nice, but I don’t expect him to give up 50% in salary just so he can play on the same team as his bro.
While I think we should re-sign Furcal, I don’t believe it’s particularly likely because of his rumored problem with alcohol (to go along with the DUIs) and lukewarm relationships with his teammates. Still, his defense this year at shortstop was the finest I have ever seen from any player; granted, I didn’t ever watch the Wizard for a full season, but Furcal just made every single play.
It’s nice to have so many young players with talent, but it’s almost a problem. We need to combine LaRoche and Johnson into one really talented player instead of two fairly talented yet flawed ones. Where’s Calvin with his transmogrifier when you need him?
Did Bobby really take LaRoche out of yesterday’s game because he didn’t run hard enough on the base?
Don’t know, but it did seem like an odd move to me. And from listening on the radio, it was very clear that he botched the play. Whether he was just being stupid or slack, I obviously have no idea. But I can’t think of any other reason, unless Cox is smarter about LaRoche’s defensive issues (takes throws well, but doesn’t actually field particularly well) than I realized.
I know that, at least lately, Franco hasn’t taken throws very well. I assume it’s old legs, but he hasn’t been stretching for throws. That said, I’d rather have him in there if my main goal is to prevent hits and especially the extra base kind down the line. It’s a trade-off, but one I would take and would understand amanger taking. But I’m not certain about the likelihood of Bobby Cox doing that. I don’t recall ever seeing him replaced by Franco on defense… at least not without a double switch.
I think the Braves will offer 3 yrs 24M max to Furcal. JS isn’t seem to interested in offering contract longer than three years nowadays. It took JS a long while before agreeing to the four-year contract demand from Hudson. It will be the case of Furcal deciding what is the best for himself.
In respect of Farnsworth, I think the Braves will offer him arbitration, and Farnsworth will accept it. Farnsworth has not proved himself to be a full time closer, and his game 4 performance will not help his case. Therefore, I think the Braves will convince Farnsworth to take the arbitration (around $4M max) so that he will make bigger money in the next offseason, by that time the Braves will move Boyer or Devine to the closer role after one more year of experience.
One more idea, I would like to see the Braves trading for Brian Fuentes (maybe sending Estrada and Foster/Reitsma). A bullpen of Farnsworth, Boyer, Devine, Sosa, Fuentes, and McBride will be awesome.
Now that Hampton is out next year, I think we will have enough money to sign Furcal, Farnsworth, and even Brain Giles. Brain Giles is making 8M this season. We will see how the market goes as the Cubs are supposed to be interested in Brain as well. So we will see what will happen.
I love reading this website during the offseason because so many of you guys are very knowledgeable about players’ salaries, arbitration, etc. I wish I knew where you guys get all that stuff, it would be interesting to study it more. Anyway, since I am NOT an expert (or even close) on any of those matters, I just thought I would throw out a few names that I had heard, and maybe some of you guys who know this stuff can comment on the probability/possibility/feasibility of any of them wearing a Braves uniform next year.
1. Billy Wagner – isn’t he a free agent now? I am sure he would come high priced, but you can always dream, right?
2. Paul Konerko – I don’t remember where, but I know I have heard his name kicked around in some of these discussions. I am not endorsing him, I was just curious.
3. Kevin Millwood?
4. Bob Wickman?
Like I said, I am not necessarily endorsing any of these players, I just thought some with more knowledge than myself could offer input. Thanks in advance.
Serious question: I love Julio, but is he really a better hitter than, say, James Jurries at this point? To me, he should be the 25th man on the roster next year if he makes the team at all.
It was an odd move at that time, creynolds. I was only thinking that Bobby would like to give Franco some playing time and at bats for the potential game 5 as the Braves were leading 6-1 at that point. I never thought about Bobby taking Adam out for not running the bases hard…
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention Danys Baez. I don’t think he’s a free agent, but I expect JS to make trades as well. Any thoughts on Danys? (I think I spelled that right)
Kyle, I just don’t see the chance of JS and Bobby promoting Jurries after his steroids suspension…
Wags – too expensive, probably. I agree he’d be nice.
Konerko – what to do with Marte/LaRoche? We have too many corner IF already.
Millwood – probably too expensive, unfortunately.
Wickman – heard he was retiring? I’d stay away from relievers with
The AJC is reporting that LaRoche had the stomach flu all day and was vomiting, and that Cox pulled him after that inning because his legs gave out while trying to score from first.
And I never thought about that angle, KC. I can see that.
Tenn Brave – it can be really hard to find out some of the intracacies of the free agent and arbitration rules, much less about things like the Rule V draft. The rules of the game between the lines are well-documented, but I’ve never been able to find good info on the business/contract side in one place… some things, I’ve found nothing even close to definitive info. The best thing to do is hang around a place like this. I like the Baseball Crank, too… but he’s a Met fan and there is also a ton of polical stuff there. I have heard great things about the USS Mariner site, but have not read it. Also check out sites like the Hardball Times and minorleagueball.com. In my opionion, Baseball Prospectus is not worth the subscription price. I don’t like it, but there it is. Maybe they’re get straight one day. It may take a while, but if you look those places and more, everything will be discussed in one way or another between now and Spring Training.
You play ball for the Vols, right? Hopefully, you will one day have an agent worrying about all these things for you 🙂
I don’t see the Braves going more than one year for either a closer or a SS. Well… maybe two for a shortstop. A big, fat one year contract offer to Furcal would be great, assuming the Hampton insurance deal works out like I assume it will (actually more money, when coupled with the salary supposedly stashed away).
kc, this was Jurries’ response after he was suspended:
“I made a mistake,” Jurries said. “I’m not going to turn my back on this problem. I’m going to face it with my eyes open and my chin up. I’m going to continue to work hard and try to put this behind me.”
Jurries would not go into specifics.
“This is a one-time mistake,” he said. “I’ve been tested over and over and over by Major League Baseball and by the Atlanta Braves, and I’ve always been clean. This past [November, while playing winter ball in Venezuela], I got approached with something, and I just didn’t think it through.
“I want to make this clear. This had nothing to do with any individual or any team. This is a decision I made, and I take responsibility for any decision I make.”
source: Richmond Times-Dispatch, 4/22/05.
Seeing as how they continue to start Furcal even with his much more serious (IMHO, at least) DUI offenses on his record, I don’t think that steroids would be a deal-breaker in his case.
Anyway, I don’t really care that much about whether they would use Jurries; do y’all think he’s a better hitter than Julio at this point? I’m not sure myself. I think that Julio probably brings enough intangibles to the team with his clubhouse presence that he ends up being more valuable. He could be a good mentor to the young Latin players like Betemit and Marte.
From watching on TV, my thought is that Gonzales should bear the brunt of the blame. I didn’t see that Adam “dogged” it, he’s just slow. It’s not like there was this burst of speed when he realized he was going to be waved. It’s true that Adam looked back over his shoulder as he approached third (which was unnecessary), but that slowed up him only fractionally. He was out easily, and the only way he would have been safe would have been a bad throw. The switch to Franco was a bit odd since it did not involve a PH. If it was a message thing, it probably would have happened in the bottom of the 7th. Maybe LaRoche tweaked something?
Yeah Kyle, I understand what you mean. However, I am think if the Braves would give a chance to somebody at first base, they would give the chance to Marte rather than Jurries.
If LaRoche indeed has a stomach flu, may the Marlins please take Fredi ASAP?
My inclination is to think he is more valuable in trade (probably to an AL team) than as the part-timer he would be. I don’t know about the hitting comparison, but you do have to worry about Franco a little more every year. And there is so much trade bait, that maybe they could hold onto him for another year. I wonder about the emotional ties to Julio and his intangibles. And this is one person where I’m not cynical about those things. You need some mentoring and positive influences with a young team. And that’s one thing we do know for sure – this will be a young team.
I guess what I’m saying that I don’t know about the on-field production aspect of the comparison, but I’m torn in every other way.
Wow, if Gonzales knew that LaRoche had not been feeling well, that puts the onus on him even more.
Re: Furcal, Braves will probably offer around 3 yrs/$24M. Someone (Cubs?) will offer at least 4 yrs/$40M. I don’t see him leaving that much money on the table, but you never know. If you can’t come to terms, you definitely offer arbitration since he would be very unlikely to take it, and if he did, a fat 1-yr contract would not be the worst thing in the world.
I think the Braves will offer arbitration to both Furcal and Farnsworth regardless of whether they can agree to a contract or not. Unlike Maddux or Drew, the Braves wouldn’t mind having Furcal and Farnsworth back under a one-year deal. If they reject the arbitration, I believe the Braves are still entitled to draft picks?
But if you offer arbitration and it is declined, i believe you are then not eligible to negotiate with that player for a free agent contract. someone correct me if i’m wrong.
Did any of you guys read what Tom Glavine had to say about the Braves on Braves.com? He ripped the Braves saying they can get over the hump. He also said that the Braves would finish second to the New York Mets in 2006.
What an asshole. If I remember right didn’t he pitch horrible in his last game with the Braves in the 2002 Division Series against the Giants. I think he is just bitter because the Mets suck. Any comments???
Still, his defense this year at shortstop was the finest I have ever seen from any player
Kyle, I completely agree, and I’m glad to see it put this strongly. It’s hard to imagine the position being played much better. We will miss him terribly if he goes elsewhere.
What about Jeff Weaver? Having watched him pitch a lot the past couple of years I know he’s a little bit of a head case (and gives up a lot of HRs), but he’s a gamer, eats a ton of innings and won 14 games for a god-awful Dodgers team in ’05 (he got beat 1-0 and 2-1 at least a few times). He’s also got nasty, nasty stuff when he’s on, and the thought of Weaver getting together with Leo to work on his consistency is tantalizing.
I’m not sure how much Weaver can get in the market, but I very much doubt the Yankees will be angling for him after what happened in ’03. The Red Sox very likely will though. Weaver’s said he wants to stay in L.A. but that it’s out of his control, and Dodgers GM Paul StupiDesta will probably dredge up some sabrimetric reason why Weaver should go.
I think Weaver would represent a sizable upgrade over Thomson.
Justin, I loathe Tom Glavine. I’ve never forgiven him and never will. That said, however, I think you’re misreading Glavine in that article. He acknowledges that the Braves did a lot with what they have, even talking about how he feels for the team. His closing comment was more out of competitive jest than anything…he plays for the Mets and has to predict that they’ll be winning the division. Do you expect him to say the Braves will beat the Mets again? While it’s probably the truth, it’s still not something he can say, and even saying what he did, it didn’t appear to be anything malicious or hateful.
I can’t believe you made me defend Tom Glavine, Justin. That hurts.
Are we totally free of Hampton’s contract because of the injuries? That’s what I’m gathering if I’m reading things correctly. Is this correct?
I read Glavine’s comments, and I’m completely baffled as to what you’re talking about. He didn’t rip them at all — he was complimentary throughout, and in fact made the point that they would likely be unfairly criticized.
As for the second place prediction — who cares? I mean, he plays for the Mets, and he’s predicting they’ll win.
No, insurance will pay roughly 8 million of his salary for 2006, leaving us paying 4million of it.
In 2007, i suppose insurance will pay if he is not ready to play, but i dont know how it will be affected if he returns midseason in 2007.
Next year, we are responsible for 4million of hamptons salary.
Dix – it’s the other way around. If you don’t offer arbitration, you can’t re-sign the player until May 1. If you do offer arbitration, and it’s declined by the player, you retain the right to negotiate with that player for an extra month or so.
“I love Julio, but is he really a better hitter than, say, James Jurries at this point?”
Jurries in AAA: .284/.357/.537
plus 100 Ks in 380 ABs*
Julio in the bigs: .275/.348/.451
I don’t see how you can say its all that likely that Jurries is a better hitter at this point. Julio hits for better average and gets on base more (adjusting for competition level).
The only advantage Jurries has is a little more power but the Braves don’t seem to ask for much power out of Julio anyways. Just a well timed single or double.
Also Jurries’ somewhat high K rate in AAA makes you wonder if he would be the AAAA hitter type w holes in the swing to be exploited.
*-I mention the Ks not in the “hitters that strike out kill offenses” way but in the “striking out in the minors raises legimate questions about his ability to make enough contact to be useful in the bigs” way.
Still, his defense this year at shortstop was the finest I have ever seen from any player
Kyle, I completely agree, and I’m glad to see it put this strongly. It’s hard to imagine the position being played much better. We will miss him terribly if he goes elsewhere.
Just wanted to amplify this. If we lose him, and we probably will, it’s going to be a huge hole to fill. He’s been the best shortstop in the National League for at least three years running, and I’d take him over Renteria in a heartbeat. At least a couple times a week he makes a play at shortstop that no one else could have made.
Personally, since I could care less about the off the field stuff, Furcal has become my second favorite Brave behind Andruw. He’s just a joy to watch and one of the few Braves that plays the game intelligently. I understand that Giles grades out as a more valuable player on paper, but he does so many stupid things during the course of a season (gee, Furcal just drew a walk, let me flail wildly at the first two sliders in the dirt, from yesterday) I can’t enjoy his play the way I do Furcal’s. Essentially the orginatizion will have to pick between the two, and they will pick Giles and I understand that. But I’m really going to miss watching Furcal play. He’s a difference maker.
thanks gryn, I appreciate that, its been bugging me all morning
The “Kyle, I completely agree…” paragraph of the above post was obviously not written by me but by sansho. Not sure how I screwed up the italics tags.
I did it earlier, nyb. If you post something enclosed in em tags with a hard return in it, it breaks the tag. I assume this is so the thread can’t “break” like sometimes happens on Primer.
Bold (and completely unrealistic) idea: re-sign Furcal, move Betemit to 2b, trade Giles for a really good player (Adam Dunn? Package with Salty for Mark Prior? etc). How bad would Betemit be at 2b?
Agree with everything NMS says. I would take Julio’s line over Jurries’ next year, but I don’t think Julio will hit like that next year. He slowed down a lot the last couple months of the season, at least it seemed like.
I personally see Wilson Betiment playing SS if Furcal gets signed elsewhere. I can’t give you any stats or anything, but from all of the Braves games I’ve been to he’s a sure thing.
It seems that people think Betemit is too big to play short, and really belongs at 3B in the majors
Too big to play short? Hmm, that guy Ripken was a pretty good shortstop, and he was 6’4″ or so, wasn’t he? He did not move to third until he got older and lost his legs.
I just don’t see the Braves coming up with enough money to keep Furcal, even in a 1 year deal.
As for Konerko, Alex brought him up. I don’t see the point. The formula for Konerko is very simple:
(Andruw – defensive value)
He’s a .275-range righthanded power hitter with medium walks. Sound familiar? He’s Andruw without the 50 HR year or the gold gloves. We aren’t in need of that, especially with Francoeur also on the team. There are teams he can help, but the Braves could probably get similar production from Marte for a twentieth the cost.
Ed Wade finally got fired. I hope they don’t hire someone any smarter or we could be in trouble next year.
“Did Bobby really take LaRoche out of yesterday’s game because he didn’t run hard enough on the base?”
I don’t really know. But He was like walking fast instead of sprinting. That pissed me off.
Its not like he is overweight. he is bones. he should have been running.
Yeah, I was just coming over here to post about Wade getting fired. He was pretty good for the Braves, actually.
Not to bring up the pain of yesterday again for y’all, but did you see that the exact same fan caught Berkman’s & Burke’s homers? Bizarre.
And supposedly LaRoche had been sick with stomach flu or something. He looked liked he was laboring, certainly didn’t have the look of someone dogging it to me. At the time, I just said to the screen (in response to idiot Sutcliffe), “No, he just isn’t that fast”.
Ok, finally made it ON today.
First, Glavine. I have met Tommy Glavine and he is one of the nicest men in sports; seeing him ripped on here disgusts me and the Braves partin with Glavine was a mutually beneficial decision for both parties. People ripping Tommy on here should be ASHAMED of themselves. Really. I mean, this guy only grew up in our organization, will wear a Braves jersey in the Hall and started the Game 6 winning game in 1995 to help lead us to our ONLY world title.
I am honestly pissed to see Glavine ripped…he wanted to come back to Atlanta but what is he supposed to do–pass up twice the amount of money? That’s insane. It’s why I argue with my brother abotu A-Rod. My brother hates him but the man is the best hitter in Baseball and it’s not HIS fault Tom Hicks doubled the Mets offer and what….is A-Rod supposed to turn that money down?
Second item: Paul Konerko.
Mac, couldn’t disagree with you more. The man hit 40 homers surrounded by a mediocre lineup and was huge in the Red Sox series. He would completely solve first base and give us back a reliable third power hitter.
Now, onto breaking down the do’s and don’t for next year’s team:
First, starting rotation.
Back will be Smoltz, Hudson, Thomson & Davies. Hampton is of course out and Horacio sucks but he’s 26 and lefthanded. My guess is JS will find a taker in trade for Horacio; in turn, I suspect JS to go after a lefthander to fill in the rotation. I would have said Thomson might have been gone but once he got healthy the last month, he was a solid enough 3rd or 4th starter. Personally, I would love to have Glavine back or at least someone of that ilk…a talented vet lefty to fill the spot.
Second, the bullpen.
Back in should & will be Farnsworth, Brower, & McBride. Honestly, thats it. I would like to see the Chris Reitsma era end. Just too unreliable. I know Farnsworth had a horrible day yesterday but I look at that as lowering his asking price so a cheap closer who still has great stuff is worth having. Devine has great talent and deserves time to heal his mental wounds down in Mississippi or Richmond…poor kid. Foster should also take a short walk off a pier to another team. Obviously, the Kolbb experiemtn has left us all suffering from radiation burns. As for Boyer, I think it depends on how healthy he is but I would like to see him BACK in Atlanta with Brower, McBride & Farnsworth in April. If Boyer can go, that least TWO spots available for some good free agent pick ups.
Third, the starting hitters.
I expect Andruw, Giles, Chipper, McCann & Langerhans on opening day. Yes, Langerhans. He earned it. Regarding the other starters…let Rafy Furcal go already. The two DUI’s and the constant top of the order hacking, let the Cubs overpay him…fine…the are the Cubs and it wont matter anyway. As for Rafy’s replacement? That’s tough…offensively I love Betemit’s bat and if it means spending some cash on Konerko, some relief help and a lefty starter, then I in turn would let Betemit take the reigns at short. His defense is decent but not great…still…its a worthwhile tradeoff.
LaRoche/Franco. I have stated my desire to get a replacement here…Paul Konerko or perhaps another trade. I would be content to see Franco on the bench next year and if we get lefty Konerko, that fits perfectly. Trade Adam…I am sure he would be beloved in Tampa.
Jeff Francouer…I love the kid to death but sign Brian Giles to a 1 year tender and let Jeffrey mature his plate selection in the farm for a year. I realize this may not happen but it would be the best thing for him & Devine to re-grow in the farm. What I saw from Frenchy the last month was ominous. He needs to re-develop. Sign Brian Giles, he wants to play with Marcus and he will take less money + he’s a good player…let Kelly Johnson stay in Atlanta as the 4th outfielder.
Finally, trade Estrada and get a cheap back-up…in the many areas we can cut costs to pay for some better relievers, this is an area. I think McCann can easily take over catching duties so why overspend on keeping Estrada? There’s always veteran catchers who can hit & defend a bit on the market and McCann can come in and play 130 games.
As for the bench, it all depends on what happens with the regulars but Kelly Johnson, Pete Orr, Julip Franco, a new veteran offensive minded catcher, and a veteran infielder if Betemit becomes a starter…if we can’t get Marte a regular job, either keep him in Richmond or TRADE him to fix the problem we are having with lefthanded starting pitching and the bullpen. I am sure I will draw ire but I would trade Marte if it landed us two good relievers and a lefthanded starter.
Comments?
Alex, I agree with the sentiment of your post. Two things I take issue with:
1) Konerko – signing him only further compounds the Andy Marte dilemma. Just don’t do it.
2) Brian Giles – were he to sign a one year contract, we’d have to pay him something like $15 million to make it worth his while to give up extra years he’ll certainly be offered.
I know this is far-fetched, but what are the possibilities of signing Nomar?
Alex, you simply ignored what I said. Konerko is not much better than pre-2005 Andruw, and you spent most of the last four years calling for Andruw’s head. He’s 29 years old and therefore due to decline. Which is which?
.279/.349/.488
.267/.342/.503
The first is Konerko’s career line. The second is Andruw’s. Please.
And you couldn’t hit him fifth, because he and Andruw can be pitched to by exactly the same relievers. So either one of them has to hit third with Chipper sliding to cleanup — which he hates — or one of them has to hit sixth with Langerhans in the fifth spot. Again, please.
I would love Konerko here, and I am sure it wouldn’t intrude with the Marte deal.
For some reason i just don’t envision him starting next season, i don’t know. But, in Alex’s summary Jorge Sosa’s name is not mentioned once. I believe the guy has earned a starting spot, Bobby won’t do that to him. I’d like to see Davies spend the year in Richmond honestly.
As for Francoeur, same thing really I believe he too earned a starting spot, if you say Langerhans earned it. . Francoeur had to have earned it.
Estrada has got to go as well, I don’t know trade him to San Francisco for Schmidt or something ( pending his option or w/e ) they need an offensive threat at catcher.
Why would we want Nomar? He was never a good shortstop and now probably couldn’t play the position at all, so he’d have to play third base, where we already have a logjam, plus he’s another righthanded power hitter with mediocre OBPs.
Here goes:
1. Send Jeff to the farm? That would look rather foolish, especially if he wins the ROY award which remains a distinct possibility.
2. This loathing of Glavine is only if you lack the ability to be grateful for what he gave us for so many years. The Braves didn’t show him a real feeling of wanting him back so he made a decision that was best for himself and his family, something any of us would have done. It’s a shame that he had to pick a circus to join but what are you going to do? Also, any bravado on behalf of the Mets should be expected by anyone receiving so much money from them.
3. Furcal being compared to other shortstops doesn’t include the fact that the others had multiple options availabale to them, thus the price went up. I doubt anyone will pursue Raffy besides the Cubs and then it becomes a personal choice of where does he want to play. Maybe, the Cubs wouldn’t be so excited by the DWI arrests? I’d offer him 3 yrs for 25M and ask him to leasd our kids to the promised land.
4. Brian Giles is a nice player but realize his season practically matched his kid brother’s and much more was expected from him And he’s expensive as hell.
5. Regarding LaRoche: Bobby said the kid couldn’t stand up because he was so weak and vomiting repeatedly;
Just want to second (third) Kyle S and nyb on Furcal…. It is hard for me to imagine the current incarnation of Braves keeping the run going without him. He had an amazing year defensively, and averaged out to the kind of offense we should expect from him. In the absence of the kind of pitching staff that we used to have (and with Chipper’s limited range), we need someone with his skills in the field. And he may be the only one available with those skills.
He is far less risky than an equivalently-valued pitcher (hello, Mike Hampton)
First, that was WILD OVERSIGHT on my part about Jorge Sosa. 1000 apologies. Sosa, absolutely deserves to be back and in the rotation. We still need a lefty and Ramirez still needs to be GONE. So that leaves HoRam’s spot available for 1 guy…and with Smoltz, SOSA, Hudson, & Thomson, the other 4 slots appear set…unless they decide to save some cash, dump Thomson and give Davies the 5th spot.
Second, Jeff Francouer may or may not win the ROY (and safe money deserves to be on Ryan Howard…he would get my vote) but either way, he faltered badly down the stretch & needs more seasoning. I love the kid and he’s the future of the Braves…but a 1 year contract for Giles so that frenchy can get a bit more season makes sense to me. Langerhans plays a lot more like a veteran and should stay now in Atlanta’s outfield. Frenchy just needs some time…sorry but he does.
I am glad to see some defense of Glavine on here…I will stick up for Tommy until I am 100. Mac agrees with me but he won’t say anything because he knows it’s a powderkeg topic and Mac likes remaining popular…he’s happy for me to be the bad guy but I don’t care. Glavine’s a class act and he’s an all time Braves hero…end of story.
Konerko: Mac, you can spout stats at me all day but I see a 40 home run left hitting first baseman. End of story….get Konerko. I don’t think we will but would love to see Adam gone.
I wish there was a way Mike Hampton’s salary would go away…that’s screwing all of this up.
1) What does “left hitting first baseman” mean? Konerko’s right handed. Mac is absolutely right about him–he’s not a great fit for us.
2) Alex and Michael everyone else can continue sticking up for Glavine all they want–that doesn’t change my perception of the man. I don’t lack the ability to be grateful, but I do lack the ability to respect or applaud someone who sells his team out to THEIR MOST HATED RIVAL. (The caps there were for you, Alex. 😉 )
3) Not attempting to re-sign Furcal would be an enormous mistake, in my view.
4) I think either Sosa or Thomson will be gone next season.
Stu,
Again, sorry for messing up Konerko’s stance…totally MY BAD. I am right though abnout hjim being a great hitter and hitting 40 home runs…that cannot be argued. He would be a huge asset to the lineup and far superior to LaRoche…those are all true statements.
Stu, I could not disagree with you more about Tommy Glavine. First, I have met him and wehn I saw how he was around other fans in 1995, I was amazed at what a class act.
That same year, he led us to our only world championship. He started the GAME THAT GOT US OUR ONE TITLE.
He got offered a LOT MORE MONEY AND MORE YEARS ON HIS CONTRACT to piutch for the Mets…he did the absolutely right thing that any of us would have done.
Another similar example of this…as you know, Stu, I am a huge Georgia fan. Several years ago, Tubby Smith came to Georgia to coach Basketball (I was at Georgia at the time and covering the team for both the Red & Black student paper and the A.P.) and he did a fabulous job…2 great years, 2 NCAA appearances and the first one led the Dawgs to a sweet 16 appearance including the 8th seed Dogs getting a big upset over the 1 seed Purdue in New Mexico in 1996. Easily, Georgia’s BEST year in the last 15 years.
Then Tubby Smith, one of the top coaches in the country, got offered twice as much money to go to his old school, Kentucky, one of the top five hoops programs in the country.
Many friends of mine called Tubby a traitor and that he screwed Georgia.
But look at the facts, he gave Georgia 2 fantastic years and then got offered DOUBLE money to coach one of the best hoops programs in America. I love my Georgia Bulldogs but I would have thought Tubby was insane had he chosen to stay at Georgia. It happens. It was best for the Smith family and he’s still at UK, has won a title and making a fortune.
Reverse this back to Glavine…if you add in the time Tommy gave to this organization with the farm system as well, he was with the Braves organization total abotu 27 yrs and led us to our only world title. He hit age 38 asnd the Mets offered 3 guaranteed years with a 4th year option and more money. At age 38, why SHOULDN’T Tommy earn a great living an extra 2 years essentially while he still can? He would have been crazy not too and he & JS parted on solid terms.
Plus, Tommy still maintains his home in Atlanta, his friendships with Smoltzie, Chipper, Pendleton, Bobby Cox, Maddux and everyone else. In fact, when we were ahead of the trading deadline and there was thoughts the Mets might be “sellers” Glavine said there were 2 teams he’d go to: Atlanta & Boston (his hometown team). Doesn’t sound like a guy with vitriol towards this organization.
The fact that you & thousands of other Braves fans have such short memories and forget his 17 yrs and what he did in 1995, is your choice…I will always be grateful and always always always appreciate Tommy Glavine.
… and he & JS parted on solid terms.
Was this before or after Glavine felt compelled to apologize to JS for the way he and his agent acted in poor faith during negotiations and spread lies through the press? You are practicing some serious revisionist history here Alex. He may be a nice guy or whatever, but the classless way he handled that free agent period was an unforgivable sin for me and many others.
nyb,
Speaking of revisionist history, please feel free to send me the article where Glavine and his agent felt compelled to apologize JS—would love to see that.
Second revisionist history…forgetting Glavine’s 17 years in the Braves organization and leading us to our ONLY world title.
This Glavine blashing is lame and ridiculous. Every Braves fan that bashes this guy should be ashamed considering what he did for this organization. Just ridiculous.
First of all, let’s not forget that Glavine was well paid for his 17 years in the Braves organization. You make it seem like he graced us with his presence and we were lucky to have him…well, we paid him to be here, so he got something out of it, too.
I don’t care how many friends he has or who his friends are. Of course friends are going to remain friends. The fact that he and Smoltz are still friends really has absolutely no bearing on his actions in leaving the organization. As nyb says above, the way he handled his free agency was classless–I don’t care how nice he was to you when you met.
I don’t care if he “has vitriol toward the organization,” as you put it (even though that sentence doesn’t really make sense). He has no reason to be angry with the Braves, so of course there would be no ill will. We didn’t wrong him, he wronged us. And the fact that he wishes he were a Brave again only shows that he knows he made a mistake. I don’t want him back, though. He made his bed–he can sleep in it now.
And the Tubby Smith comparison doesn’t work at all. Tubby was not a UGA grad or former player or something like that–he was a hired gun quickly moving up the college ranks. He moved quickly from Tulsa to UGA to UK. There was no loyalty developed between he and UGA. You’re telling me his situation with UGA is analogous to the 17 years Tom Glavine spent in the Braves organization? I don’t think so.
And, frankly, it’s a little insulting that you say I have a “short memory.” Of course I know what he meant to this franchise, and of course I’m grateful for the Game 6 performance he gave us in 1995. Alex, the man was my favorite baseball player ever. He ruined that, though, by leaving town to sign with the team I–and most other Braves fans, at least at that time–hated most for a couple more million and one more guaranteed year. No, that’s no small difference, but I just expected a little more loyalty, especially from someone who writes a book entitled “None But the Braves.” Honestly, if anyone has a “short memory” here, it’s you, who seem to have completely forgotten about all of the events surrounding Glavine’s departure.
Speaking of revisionist history, please feel free to send me the article where Glavine and his agent felt compelled to apologize JS—would love to see that.
Don’t have a link offhand, but it’s not like a secret or anything. Pretty well known. Glavine gave him the old “My agent and I didn’t communicate well” line. If you forgive him, good for you. It’ll probably be a while for me.
Don’t be hating the Glav-meister. One of my all-time fave Braves. He didn’t sell us out. He’s a union guy and, as such, pretty much “walked the walk.” Hate him for that, I suppose, but he stood up for his principles and his career suffered for it.
I think Jurries is pretty much Hessman. Maybe hits a little better and strikes out a little less, but has no solid defensive position. But I agree on Julio. Twins just let Matt LeCroy walk. He’s not much of a fielder, but is also an emergency catcher.
I don’t forgive Glavine, nyb, because I have never been ANGRY with him.
THERE IS NOTHING TO FORGIVE. The man gave his heart & soul to the organization for 17 years and for some of you to so blindly dismiss that, because he took a lot of money to go the Mets is just so insanely unfair.
You mostly feel cheated because he went to the Mets. If he had gone to the Padres or Roylas, I wouldn’t be hearing any of this garbage right now. I mean, REALLY, boo hoo…he didn’t retire a Braves. Guess what…not everyone does! He still won us a world series, the Braves didn’t want to commit four years…you should not be angry at anyone because it was a mutually beneficial decision for BOTH sides.
he will still enter the Hall as a Brave and will always be a BRAVE in many of our hearts.
And that’s what’s really going on here…if he was a Royal, this argument wouldn’t be taking place. God forbid someone should take a big dollar 4 year contract and go to the Mets–how DARE he. What an a–hole. Who would dare take a 4 year contract when he should haven smaller dollars and 2 years from the Braves at age 38…what a selfish, selfish bastard~! 🙂
By the way, Dale Murphy didn’t “end” his career as a BRAVE…hate him too?
I mean, outside of Murph & Aaron, I would rank Tommy Glavine in the top 5 all time Braves and what they meant to their organization. That should mean more then your bitterness.
Alex, your failure to respond to any of my actual arguments shows just how weak is the ground on which you stand in this debate.
But you’re absolutely right, Alex. If he’d gone to the Royals or Red Sox or anyone besides the Mets, I would’t feel nearly as strongly as I do about this. And I think my stance is a perfectly logical one. As usual, you’re free to disagree. Well, since it’s you, actually, you’re FREE to DISAGREE.
Stu,
I fully disagree and feel strongly that I have stated my case as to why it’s so utterly illogical to hate Glavine. You have made your arguments, I think you are 100% wrong, completely and utterly disagree with you, but respect your opinion and leave it at that.
I appreciate you being honest that it’s the METS THING that has pissed you off the most. Sure, I also wish he had left our division, I don’t disagree, but that’s who offered Glavine the best deal for him asnd his family. Plain and simple.
And Tom Glavine will ALWAYS be a Brave in many of our hearts. thank you Tommy for 17 wonderful years.
You mostly feel cheated because he went to the Mets. If he had gone to the Padres or Roylas, I wouldn’t be hearing any of this garbage right now. I mean, REALLY, boo hoo…he didn’t retire a Braves. Guess what…not everyone does!
I think you are really missing the point here. I don’t care that he went to the Mets (many do though), I don’t care that he won’t retire a Brave (although he may still I suppose), I was turned off by how classless his money grab was during that free agent period. If you want to shop around, fine. But the whole “The Braves never made me a real offer (when they clearly had)” and “I never got the phone message” crap was bush league. He doesn’t get a pass from me on that due to his past victories. Crap is crap no matter what your resume looks like.
By the way, Dale Murphy didn’t “end” his career as a BRAVE…hate him too?
He was traded. That’s (stating the obvious) different. Dale Murphy was and is the picture of the classy professional ballplayer. Mentioning Murphy and Glavine in the same sentence is an insult to Dale’s integrity.
No insulting is spitting on Glavine’s 17 years in our organization and helping us win a world series. THATS INSULTING.
Alex, it’s simple. Konerko will be a 30 year old righthanded power hitter who will make more than $10 million a year. Andruw will be a 29 year old righthanded power hitter who will make more than $10 million a year. You can’t tie up that much payroll in two such similar hitters of a similar age, because they’re going to fall apart at the same time and stick you with a huge bill. Yes, Konerko will be better than LaRoche, but LaRoche doesn’t make anything and is several years younger. You also have Marte, who has a similar offensive profile to Konerko and who would make less than LaRoche.
I am willing to bet that Andy Marte hits more homers over the length of Konerko’s next contract than Konerko does. Offer not valid in Coors Field, Bank One Ballpark, or Minute Maid Ballpark.
If anyone cares, Baseball Reference already updated for this years stats and Francoeur’s season projected to a full season is .300 with 32 homers and 104 RBI. But alos 134 Ks with only 25 walks.
Re: Glavine
I’m as big a braves fan as you’ll find. I get attached to players from time to time and don’t want to see them go. I think sometimes we feel like somehow these guys owe us something. Glavine owe’s us nothing. He is one of the all time braves greats. ON and OFF the field. I was frustrated the day he left for the dreaded mets, but that was due to my own selfishness for wanting him on the team forever. The reality is Glavine has paid Braves’ fans in full (i.e. 1995 World Series, 17 years, class act role model). In the end I don’t know how someone can realistically look at what he was presented that offseason and not see exactly why he went to the mets. I guarantee every single person in here would have made the same decision…
Short points in order:
1) Konerko’s a horrible idea. Andruw – defense is spot on. Much better to spend the 10MM elsewhere and not have it tied up as long. Plus even though I agree Fraroche needs to be upgraded, I’m not sure they wont come close to equaling Konerko next year. Obvious solution is for Marte to be ready and play 3rd with Chipper moving to first, but good luck with that. Given the way Vinny the poo and Chipper too was botched I don’t have much confidence in sorting it all out. Fraroche will do for another season.
2) Davies isn’t ready. He had some great starts but his second time through the league wasn’t nearly as effective. He needs to pitch in AAA and be called up for the five spot when someone gets hurt. Same goes for Devine to a lesser extent.
3) Please no more Horatio.
4) Where do we spend any $$$? The only spots I can see are LF and maybe a starter. Figure Betemit at short due to lack of a better option/willingness to pay furcal 40/4 where do you spend the money and who do you get. Best option is a trade b/c the free agents suck except for Burnett, who won’t come cheap either.
If we can only have one player, preferably left handed at starting pitcher or left field (maybe first with marte to left or whatever), who do we REALISTICALLY target and how certain that they outperform whoever gets replaced?
Re: Glavine
Joshg, thank YOU. My entire Glavine argument was summed up so eloquently and so succinctly by you…there’s absolutely no way in hell the Glavine haters out there should be arguing. Honestly, the hating of Glavine is really painful to see after what he meant to this organization and what he did for the Braves for 17 years, and 1995 in particular.
I mean, if it wasn’t for Glavine, Justice and Wohlers on one particular October night ten years, we would all have 14 straight years of depression as opposed to at least having that one year(95) we can all smile upon.
Really? We couldn’t have won Game 6 or Game 7 with somebody else out there? I think your assumption that only Glavine could have gotten that win is a bit far-fetched. And I’m not being ungrateful or anything. As I’ve already said, his contributions were much appreciated and revered. And I can still look back fondly. However, starting in 2003, I became an avid supporter of anyone going against Glavine, for reasons already expressed.
Just because you chose to turn your eyes from the crap Glavine pulled doesn’t mean those of us who watched everything unfold can’t take a different view on the matter. And your cheesy over-dramatization (see: “if it wasn’t for Glavine…on one particular October night…”) hurts your point even more, in my opinion.
If you want to agree to disagree that’s fine, but Alex, if you continue to respond, I’m going to continue to respond. You claimed that you respected my right to disagree, and yet you continue to talk dismissively about my opinion. As I’ve made abundantly clear, my feelings toward Glavine are legitimate, and I’d really appreciate it if you dropped the subject.
I guess I just got the impression that both sides pulled some crap. I mean, really, that “lifetime” contract was BS. It’s over and done with. I wish people would not bear a grduge against Glavine this long. But if they’re going to, so be it. No skin off my rear. I just hope we can keep the vitriol to a minimum. But even that won’t bother me.
I think the terms pulling crap are in the definition of business… When it comes to negotiating contracts, baseball is a business. Every agent and gm pulls crap. It is their JOB.
Brian Jordan said “I think I can play one more year”
Bobby better tell him “not here your not”
To the Glavine haters:
GROW UP
He didn’t sell out his country to the Soviets. All he did was join another team. Do you really think that ballplayers look at the other team the way fans do? They aren’t hated enemies–they are just other members of the club on another team. It’s silly to criticize Glavine for going to the Mets just because we don’t like the Mets.
Everything I know about Glavine suggests he is a class act. He was a great pitcher while he was here (and btw, his playoff performances, at least in the early years, were pretty damn good, including, of course 1995). He left for more money and more years–I think he made a mistake but so be it.
If you are going to criticize someone, how about Furcal? Someone said they couldn’t care less about what happens off the field. Well, maybe someone would if furcal had killed someone while driving drunk, as Leonard Little of the Rams did. What’s worse–driving drunk and risking your own and other people’s lives or switching teams?
Please tell me that they are not going to get rid of Fucal!!!!!!!
JoJo.
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