In a move that took WAY too long, the Braves signed Jurickson Profar to a 3 year/$42MM contract. Outside of minor moves, this is the first real major league move of the offseason and will help stabilize the OF during Ronald Acuña Jr’s month long absence. Jurickson is coming off of a career year with a .280/.380/.459 slash line and 24 home runs. Profar’s offensive resurgence came after he spent time in the offseason working with Fernando Tatis, Sr.
My hope is that Profar is the leadoff hitter in the first month in the season while Ronald Acuña Jr. is rehabbing, then he’s slotted into the number 2 spot for the rest of the season, in hopes that the .380 OBP wasn’t an anomaly.
Should We Cease or Head to Montgomery?
There are rumors swirling in regards to the Braves being interested in 2 pitchers: Dylan Cease and Jordan Montgomery. Cease would not be cheap and Montgomery would practically be given away at a heavy discount. Cease reigns from Milton, GA and my source has told me that Cease would be “ecstatic” to join the Braves. However, when it comes to Cease, would the Braves be able to extend him, or will it be a one and done?
On the other hand, Montgomery would only be a 1 year commitment, but he was, no sugar coating, complete ass last year, carrying a 6.23 ERA and a -1.4 WAR. However, he did play in Arizona and the dry air likely took a whole lot of movement out of his arsenal. Montgomery is owed $22.5MM next year, but rumor has it that Arizona is willing to eat a whole lot of that $ to get rid of his contract.
So…what would you do? Pay a hefty price for Cease in hopes that he’d take a hometown discount extension. Or, would you take a gamble on Montgomery to bounce back to his career norms?
I like the move for Cease, depending on how steep the price would be and whether or not we could lock him up with an extension like we did Olson when we made that deal. Cease would go a long way in stabilizing the rotation in the future with Strider, Schwelly and Lopez after Sale eventually retires/departs.
The problem on Cease is he is almost certainly a 1-year rental because he’s a Boras client. He would have to buck the trend of Boras clients refusing generous extensions, becoming free agents and maximizing their contracts to the last dollar. Maybe he does that because he wants to be in ATL, but it would be against the advice of his agent who will at least want him to gain leverage of outside offers.
So after a very cautious offseason, you turn around and prospect dump for a 1-year pitcher? Hard to imagine it.
Montgomery is a good bounceback candidate. Hard to believe he is as bad as last year’s numbers
I forgot Cease was a Boras client…that really changes a lot perspective wise. Taking a chance on Montgomery is more up AA’s alley anyway as he loves the bounce back candidate and we might need the prospects at the deadline for a SS or another starting pitcher.
Where is Flaherty in this discussion?
The most I would do is something like Richie or Waldrep, Kelenic and Lara for a Cease rental and I’m not sure that gets it done. I’m not really a Waldrep believer but I’m probably in the minority on that.
A trade for Cease without an extension would be tough. I imagine his GA-hometown-discount floor is probably the Aaron Nola deal (7 years/$172) and that’s just not something AA would probably do.
Unfortunately the stats and projection systems hate Montgomery right now. He’d really have to be a giveaway, or our scouts would have to hvae spotted something.
I think the Boras thing can get overblown. The trouble is that I doubt AA would pay the cost of extending Cease regardless of who his agent is, given the way our negotiations went with Swanson, Freeman, and Fried. He doesn’t like paying market value the same way Schuerholz didn’t.
Thanks, Ryan. I’m with you on the great value of Profar’s on base ability. I posted the below at the end of the last thread, before I realized you had posted this new thread on the signing.
“I’m excited about the Profar signing largely because of his on base skills. That’s something the lineup could use more of. I love both Ozzie and Harris but neither has the OBP to hit near the top of the order. Hopefully Snit will bat Profar one or two as opposed to MHII or Ozzie.”
[I wonder how many of you, upon reading the phrase “Ozzie and Harris,” would think, as I do, of the Nelson family.]
HA! yeah, I had a T shirt in middle school , Ozzie(osbourne) and Harriet ( Nelson)
I think Montgomery was really hurt by signing late and didn’t have a normal spring build up.