Austin Riley has come a long way since his rookie year of 2019. His season had the hallmarks of a shooting star that year, and once pitchers figured him out, he burned out to the point where he didn’t even make the playoff roster. He was still in the midst of trying to figure it out in 2020 (and the drastically shortened year surely didn’t do him any favors), but he did manage a couple of big playoff moments (while overall not hitting particularly well in the postseason that year, either), the biggest of which was the game-winning homer in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers.
He seemed to figure some things out going into the 2021 season, though, and he’s quickly become one of the best third basemen in the league. Over the last two years, he’s received down-ballot MVP votes (finishing seventh and sixth, respectively), a Silver Slugger award and an All-Star nod. He slashed .303/.367/.531 in 2021 and .273/.349/.528 in 2022. I would also argue that he was more valuable in 2022 than 2021, for what that’s worth, as with Freddie Freeman gone, Ronald Acuna out or not himself, and Ozzie Albies injured for most of the year, more was required of him last year. And with that, he delivered at about the same level he had in 2021.
He’s also locked down going forward, having signed a 10-year, $212 million extension midway through last season, a deal which includes step-ups in salary from $15 million next year to $22 million a year over the final eight years and a $20 million club option at the back end. So we will get to see Austin as the Braves third baseman many years into the future. He’s only 25 years old, so he should be just coming into his prime now, and the Braves don’t have to worry about losing him to free agency while he gets security and what seems to me to be a pretty fair contract. This is a team-friendly deal to a certain extent, as he would obviously command more on the open market if he had gotten to free agency. However, there’s a wide gap between the Albies extension (the most team-friendly of them) and the Riley one, and I haven’t really understood why folks who are keen on insisting the Braves are robbing these poor young players blind have been lumping them all in together like there’s no difference between them.
In any case, Austin has become one of my favorite Braves to watch, and I look forward to doing so for the foreseeable future. And I hope for Bravey’s sake that he has spent this whole offseason trying to forget about the fact that he now makes over $200 million…
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Alex was JC’d
Cool story about Jason Heyward’s next chapter.
https://theathletic.com/4152541/2023/02/03/jason-heyward-chicago-dodgers/
It’s probably just one of those things, but the fact that Riley fell off a cliff basically the minute the Braves committed to him for the next decade feels pretty ominous. (He put up a sub-.400 slugging in both August and September, and he’s not exactly the kind of player who provides you tons of value when he’s not putting balls into orbit.)
Thank goodness Riley will be here to prove you wrong in just a couple of months. I would argue there is no causal link between the contract and performance. As the numbers above show, his 2022 was very similar to 2021 and the drop off in performance from where he was should have been expected regardless of contract status. He may yet break out into MVP numbers as he’s only 25.
I am so looking forward to what a fully healthy Acuna, improving Riley, and a settled Olson can do (along with a healthy Albies). The Braves may yet just run away with the East. And before anyone complains this year, let’s remember both the Mets and Phillies have a history of fast starts while the Braves generally start slow. Let’s not lose hope if we are even down 10 in June.
One of my current favorite thoughts about LF/DH is that it could not possibly be any worse this year than last – especially for Rosario.
I said it was probably just a coincidence. It’s just an unsettling one.
Fried “lost” his arb case. He’ll be paid $13.5MM.
Braves up to third in FG depth charts predictions. Ahead of Mets now. Only behind Yankees and Padres.
I understand he signed the new contract and seemly fell off a cliff. His 1st born was the same week of the contract. Her parents moved in to help. The new baby and in law situation and the pressure of the contract and the timing of his sorta regular ‘slump’ looks bad. I believe he will have adjusted by the time the season starts. When he got to the braves he a certain body type–they told him he could not stay at 3rd with that body type and flexibility. Over the summer he ‘reworked’ his body and flexibility. This is no small feet. I believe part of the big contract is based on him being able to make the adjustments needed to succeed. An easy example of this is in each minor league level Riley would struggle and then come on and dominate. When he got to the bigs he started off hot and then struggled. He had adjusted and is one of a handful of players who are the best 3rd baseman in the game. I believe Riley will have an even better than last year where he hit over 80 extra base hits and was in the top 5 of players in the NL till the last 2 months of the season.
Agreed.
The 60day IL will be available on Feb 15th when pitchers and catchers report. We may see real additional activity from AA at that time as we have two players who will certainly hit the 60day IL (Ynoa and Matzek). That’s when AA may decide to pick up an Andrus or Profar or Chafin.
So who on the roster is ripe for a DFA? White? Tonkin? Allard?
@11
Lots will be ripe for a DFA.
I’m thinking the pecking order goes something like
Vines
Tonkin
Hilliard
Santana
Elledge
White
New thread.
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2023/02/06/2022-braves-player-review-will-smith/