We all should have seen it coming. We have certainly seen the story enough times: A journeyman who had been almost exactly league average for his undistinguished career (12.9 fWAR in 7 seasons) has a great run, caps it with an amazing postseason, signs a decent contract (2 yrs/$18M) and then suffers a retinal detachment (maybe. There is some disagreement on the internet about this or whether something else caused the eye swelling).
The result was vintage Nick Esasky. 3 for 44 before surgery and then a less than stellar comeback made for a 61 wRC+ and -1.1 WAR. Apparently being able to see the ball also helps out in the pasture as Eddie put up a -20/150 fielding performance as well. Fortunately he was able to put it all behind him and put up a 587 OPS in the postseason. This was just not Eddie’s year.
The good news is that he is supposed to be back seeing the ball by spring. Projection systems are not kind though – the 2 I have seen both forecast an 88 OPS+ for 2023 which is essentially unplayable. I believe they are underestimating him because they both take recency bias into account and penalize him for the missed time. Of course, even an optimist like me has to admit that about a 110-115 OPS+ is the limit we can expect from Eddie next season. The team will likely give him a long rope in spring and April but not much beyond that. Get well my friend.
If you want to help: cothrjr at gmail
“Vintage Nick Esasky” is so great. That’s the kind of writing I come here for and I only get it here!
I can confirm — the Hammers shirts are fantastic. I love mine.
Thanks Karl. I would definitely take a 100-110 OPS+ from Eddie this year. Hopefully he becomes a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. What a frustrating way to have a season ruined for a player.
Great job, Karl. I’ve been cautiously optimistic about Rosario returning to his career norms, which isn’t great but will do, especially as part of a platoon. But the Nick Esasky reference gives me pause. He never recovered, and I suppose the same is entirely possible for Eddie.
Happy Thanksgiving to all! I have much to be grateful for. Among the really good things in my life is this site and the people who make it up. We all owe a special debt of gratitude to Ryan for all his work in keeping this up and now improving it.
Happy Thanksgiving, Braves Journalers! I’m thankful to be part of this extended semi-functional family!
@3 — Don’t you kind of have to play at a high level in the first place in order to win Comeback Player of the Year?
That’s kind of the thing about Rosario — he was never that good. Two years ago he was nontendered, and not unjustly so. At multiple points in his career you could acquire him for nothing. He’s never been more than a fringe starter on a good team. That’s why giving him two years on the back of a hot postseason was such an iffy move in the first place — his best-case scenario is being the best seventh- or eighth-place hitter in the bigs. Maybe that’s the Rosario we get in 2023, but I kind of doubt it — I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded for Pablo Sandoval again, just in the other direction this time. A backup plan would be nice.
Speaking of Comeback Player of the Year, Pujols deservedly won the NL CPOY. The strange thing to me was that Acuna received several votes. I understand that he had to come back from major injury, but he was on his way to mvp with a 4.3 WAR in 82 games in 2021. He had a 2.2 WAR in 114 games in 2022 and put up his worst numbers by far. Not sure if I would consider him for Comeback Player of the Year.
Hey Rob, just saw someone named John Copenhaver catch a TD pass for North Carolina…… relation?
Welp, overturned on review…… but Carolina scored anyway
Been away from here for a few days…. Happy Thanksgiving everybody.
When does the hot stove start? Happy holidays Braves Journalers.
@6 he was that good! For six weeks a year and a half ago. To your larger point, Not sure that’s enough.
New thread.
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2022/11/26/2022-braves-player-review-vaughn-grissom/