I really have to give it to Anthopolous on the way he’s assembled the pens here in Atlanta. I have this blind spot in thinking that if you have 4-5 good arms, that’s good enough to have a good bullpen. And every year, I’m just so wrong about that.
The big offseason move before Spring Training was that the Braves signed Collin McHugh. I thought that’d be our big pickup, and I liked the move. And even after Luke Jackson went down with TJ, I didn’t think the Braves would do much about it. Instead, AA signed Kenley Jansen, which really surprised me. So the Braves set sail with this Opening Day bullpen:
Kenley Jansen
Collin McHugh
Will Smith
Tyler Matzek
A.J. Minter
Darren O’Day
Sean Newcomb
Tyler Thornburg
It looked good on paper, and more importantly, I figured AA would make the bullpen right either way.
Thornburg ended up being ok in a handful of outings, but he became a 40-man crunch, so he was DFA’ed. Newcomb was out of options, so he got a few outings out of the gate, and then was traded for Jesse Chavez. “Getting traded by Atlanta for Jesse Chavez†is a fate many men experience.
But the bullpen that Atlanta rode simply couldn’t replicate its success in 2022. Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and Luke Jackson, three key pieces of that 2022 postseason pen, combined for 80.2 innings pitched and a 3.93 ERA. AA was smart to see that they were not each going to be 60-70 IP late inning relievers. Darren O’Day also struggled.
So, as is usually the case, the bullpen was under construction for most of the year, and Minter, Jansen, McHugh, Chavez, and Dylan Lee carried the freight for the majority of the year. This was Lee’s first full season in the major leagues, and he showed why he was worth a 40-man roster spot for so long. Lee will be around for a while. Jackson Stephens also started to develop a bigger role as the season went along, and he’s got lots of control.
At the deadline, the big pickup for the bullpen was trading Jesse Chavez and Tucker Davidson for Raisel Iglesias. Chavez would then be DFA’ed by LAA and be back in Atlanta by the end of the month, and Iglesias was one of the most unhittable pitchers in all of baseball down the stretch, pitching 26.1 innings and giving up exactly 1 earned run. That’s a video game-esque 0.34 ERA. This was a trade that definitely worked out for Atlanta down the stretch, and Tucker was never going to see the rotation any time soon.
We won’t talk about the postseason.
For the season, this was a very good pen. They pitched the 23rd-fewest innings but we were 2nd in fWAR, 4th in ERA, and 8th in WPA. So once again, AA had built a great pen.
Next Year
Kenley Jansen and Jesse Chavez are free agents. Fortunately, almost everyone else in the pen under team control. I would expect Atlanta to sign another reliever in Kenley’s tier, and they can undoubtedly have Jesse back if they want him.
Luke Jackson should be back before the midway point of next year, but Tyler Matzek will be out all next year. So Atlanta has a lot of potentially reliable guys for next year’s pen:
Raisel Iglesias
A.J. Minter
Luke Jackson (in some capacity)
Dylan Lee
Collin McHugh
Kirby Yates
Jackson Stephens
Guys on the 40 man who could end up in next year’s pen:
Silvino Bracho
Bryce Elder
Kyle Muller
Alan Rangel
Mike Soroka
Freddy Tarnok
Brooks Wilson
William Woods
Huascar Ynoa
So if they add one more arm in Kenley’s tier, then that will leave a couple free spots for guys to compete for. My hope against hope is that Mike Soroka will make this recovery, and getting him some low leverage, short outing work in the pen might be a great way of getting him back in. But if we’ve learned anything in AA’s tenure, we’ll have another good bullpen next year.
HBTD.
I definitely hate the “fire your coach every 3-4 years” mentality of college football. You’re signing up for non-competitive football for 2 years (the last year of the fired coach because everyone and their brother knows he’s a lame duck, and the first year of the next coach). So I didn’t even think Florida would cover the spread, even though they miraculously did.
The alternative, however, is what Georgia did with Richt. You’re good-not-great for 15 years and get beaten like a drum by your main and pretty much only rival 10 out of the 15 years Richt was there.
Florida probably finishes 8-5. Kirby went 8-5 in his first year and lost to Jim dang McElwain. Saban went 7-6 and lost to ULM in his first year. If Nape keeps the recruiting trajectory going, he’ll be fine.
Also, Georgia/Tennessee will be the game of the year. I didn’t balk at the Florida/Georgia spread, but I’m scratching my head a little with the Georgia/Tennessee spread. Does Georgia really want to try to have Stetson Bennett win in a shootout?
Nice work, Rob.
Things we know: (a) relievers are highly variable in their effectiveness from year to year; I don’t think anybody knows why.
(b) Closers (TM) are somewhat less variable from year to year, but they make money way out of proportion to their actual value. (This is of course a hotly disputed point, and has been a focus of scorn at sabermetrics for years.)
Combine those two and you realize that a scout and/or organization and/or pitching coach that can spot someone who’s ready to produce NOW is really valuable. And that applies both between seasons and in-season. And teams with persistently weak bullpens probably have a management problem, not a bullpen problem. In modern 5-inning-starter baseball you need a lot of relievers. Chip marvelled at some team (I don’t remember which one) that had more innings out of their starters than relievers. There are going to be more.
Don’t forget the possibility that Odorizzi ends up in the bullpen as long man/spot starter. I liked what Tarnok showed in his brief debut. We may not see any adds for pitchers as the depth is so long. Our biggest need other than signing Dansby is an OBP machine so that we can hit fewer solo HRs and cut down on the Ks.
We should be using Anderson, Muller, Elder, Soroka, etc… as 5th starters.
Trading Ozuna and/or Odorizzi for anything useful seems like the impossible dream.
The thing that’s interesting to me is, despite constant personnel turnover across every pen in baseball, some teams consistently have good bullpens – the Yankees, the Guardians, the Rays, us; and some consistently have bad pens – the Nationals, the Phillies, etc.
I have a hunch that some GMs are much better at bullpen construction than others. I wonder how and why?
The coach one might point to as the guy that UGA kept too long wasn’t Mark Richt.
It was Ray Goff.
Thank you Mr. Copenhaver. Yes, our current regime seems to get the bullpen right.
On Georgia, yes Tennessee has a 99 percentile offense. Georgia has a 96 to maybe 98 percentile defense. Georgia has a 95 percentile offense. Before yesterday, Tennessee had a 40 percentile defense.
By the way. Your beloveds lost by 5 to the grey, the black, or the orange (whichever). But your beloveds lost by 22 to Georgia. So, in Athens, Georgia should be favored.
@3 – As few innings as relievers pitch in a season, I’m not surprised there is a lot of variability from one season to the next. I don’t know if the typical reliever pitches enough for us to know if he’s really any good or not. What do you think?
@7 It does seem like Tennessee continues to get better week-by-week.
Tennessee would not beat Florida by just five points if they played today. And I don’t mean that as a cheap shot at Rob’s Gators so much as a pushback on the constant references to Tennessee’s five-point win over Florida (which wasn’t as close as that scoreline makes it seem, even so) and overtime win over Pitt that I’ve heard from no less than a half-dozen Georgia fans in the last 24 hours. October Tennessee and September Tennessee are not the same team.
@10 I think I agree with this. It’s like how Georgia let Florida get back in the game in the 3rd quarter. Tom Fornelli said it well, “Georgia was playing with its food.”
Both teams got out in front quite a bit and just let Florida burn up clock and score a few times. When it got serious, the other team got serious again.
If Tennessee can score 40+ on Georgia’s defense, it’s going to be hard for Stetson to win in a shootout. Not saying he can’t, but it’ll be difficult. Plus, Florida was a HORRIBLE matchup for Georgia’s elite tight ends because our LBs are easily the weakest part of our team, and I don’t know if Tennessee is a similarly bad matchup. I’m unimpressed with Georgia’s WRs. Tennessee also gets a nice push up front, and Stetson doesn’t like it when his NFL offensive line doesn’t give up 4 seconds to throw.
This is a “who can get closest to 40 points” kind of game. I pick Georgia 37-34, Georgia to win the SECCG, Michigan to lose by 3 points in a tough road loss to OSU, and there to be CHAOS with the playoff committee!
Doesn’t give him* 4 seconds to throw.
If I were a betting man I would probably bet on Georgia. Tennessee seems to have gotten better since Alabama, but I think Georgia has more talent. As noted, pressure is key. Alabama’s defense and defensive coordinator went brain dead against Tennessee. They did nothing to try to pressure the quarterback and gave up big plays all over the field. Even with that and 17 penalties, a missed field goal towards the end lost it for Bama. I think if Georgia loses it will be because Tennessee gets in Bennett’s head and he has a bad game.
My theory on closers. OK to pay top dollar for the 1-3rd ranked PROVEN CLOSERS ™ but if you’re not getting one of those, its better to get the 13th ranked closer for much less money.
@14 13th-best closer will still cost you a pretty penny.
I think the Braves bullpen (post Will Smith) were successful because it was so diverse.
Minter, power lefty arm with wipeout slider
Stephens, junk ball pitcher with some wicked break and a good FB
Lee, locator with low walk rate
McHugh, a nothing’s straight pitcher that can’t break 90
Jansen, cutter artist
Iglesias, power RHP with deadly change
Chavez, crafty vet
Aside from Minter and Matzek, nothing looks the same.
@16 Unfortunately Minter and Matzek were very different this year
UGA/UT is anyone’s guess. No score would surprise me (other than 9-6 or something really low, lol). I don’t think my Dawgs have been “up” for any game since week 1. That intensity should be back this Saturday. Plus we’re getting healthier. The concerns are the young secondary and the likelihood of blown coverages. I’m very curious to see if we sit back in safe zones and play bend but don’t break, or if we press their WRs at the line. Playing back didn’t help Bama or LSU, that’s for sure. We’ll be no different if we try to play soft – that’s my big fear.
The other concern for me is Stetson and his turnovers. He should’ve had 4 picked against UF. This seems like a recipe for pounding the rock with all four tailbacks and mixing in play-action. This year’s Stetson probably can’t win the game, but he can sure lose it. If UGA wins it’ll be via man-enough lines of scrimmage and hitting Hooker early and often. If UT wins it will be well-earned and I’ll tip my hat for sure. Can’t wait for this game.
#13
Right, Bama’s defensive front didn’t pressure Hooker enough & that was no small thing.
But, to be honest, Tennessee wasn’t doing anything special to Bama, in terms of offensive scheme. They just had #11 run past #2 over & over. It was athlete-vs-athlete on the deep balls & #11 just outran him.
So, for UGA this weekend, the safety play will be big (freshman Malaki Starks & senior Christopher Smith) to prevent the explosive plays.
One upside, one downside & one unknown for UGA this week:
Up: Jalen Carter returned from injury & played 3rd downs vs UF last week. At best, he’ll provide pressure up the middle; at worst, he’ll draw 2 blockers & free someone else up.
Down: Nolan Smith hurt his shoulder vs UF — he’s the best run-stopping LB in the league & very good at pressuring the QB. If he doesn’t play, that’s something UT should exploit.
Unknown: Will WR AD Mitchell finally return from injury?
My take: UT better be prepared to stop the run. If they can’t, they’ll get gashed, chunked & play-actioned to death. They’re gonna get a bellyful of 12 personnel. Pick the TE you want to cover & the other guy will get the ball. Any choice you make will be wrong.
On the other side, yes, UGA’s obviously gotta pressure Hooker, but moreover the secondary’s gotta keep its eye-discipline. Outside of 2 big pass plays all year (Kent St & UF), they’ve done that. But UT has more weapons than they’ve seen & they’re generally good at scheming guys open.
My gut says UGA wins b/c they have better players up & down the roster, especially on the defensive side. They’ll get at least one more stop than UT. The crowd should be a factor for UGA, just like it was for UT vs. Bama.
That said, I guffawed a bit when I first saw the 11-point line. It’s now down to 8. Wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped a bit more.
Adios Dept.:
In other news, Auburn now owes Bryan Harsin $15M, half of which is due in 30 days.
And Billy Napier seemed to see what the officials missed on Saturday — Brenton Cox throwing end-zone punches at Broderick Jones & Kenny McIntosh.
Time for Prime Time at Auburn!
@21 That would be interesting
@20 I’ll never begrudge a young man for hating Georgia. 😎
Word is Cox got into a fight in the locker room (this seems to be confirmed by another player), called Kirby a MFer after the game (I don’t know if I believe this one), and punched those guys. He had a career you’d hope a 4-star would give you, but the dude just can’t get out of his own head. And can’t get over what happened at Georgia. Interested to see what his future is.
Cox was a 5-star recruit that Kirby dumped 2 years ago because he was a selfish, me-first player & a toxic locker-room guy. It was a culture move to dismiss him… plus, they had other capable linebackers.
Nolan Smith is doubtful per-CKS … it’s a pectoral injury but haven’t seen anything more definitive. Even a mild tear would mean he’s done for the season. We’ll be in nickel most of the game so maybe we can manage around this. Still a huge loss if he can’t go. Stars are aligning for the Vols. Kinda wish I had jumped on that +12 when it opened.
@24
His on-field production has been above average. He’s been fine. And now that Florida has just as good of options behind him, his toxicity has got him shown the door again. They got what they needed out of him and sent him packing.
He shouldn’t have been a five-star, so by that standard, he’s a bust. But he’s been a decent SEC starter. He’s got a lot of growing up to do.
In my opinion Jamir Gibbs is up there with Najee Harris and Mark Ingram as a top Alabama running back, but not as good as Derrick Henry. I’m not sure Georgia’s running backs are quite as good but they have a much better offensive scheme for rushing and better run blocking. Georgia can wear you down with their running game. Alabama and Tennessee cannot. If Georgia is forced to pass they could be in trouble, but I don’t think that will happen unless Bennett really messes up.
No baseball tonight.
A rainout’s might be a bit of a break for the Phils. Now they can throw Nola in Game 4 & Wheeler in Game 5, both on full rest.
Interestingly, also, MLB kept the travel off-day & moved back potential Games 6 & 7 by a day.
Either mine isn’t updating, or it is a slow day on Braves Journal. Hope you are all well.
The latter, I think. I’d still love to know what makes some teams better at assembling bullpens than others!
Also, I guess it’s tough to get terribly fired up about this World Series.
Maybe it’ll get interesting.
Dansby won a Gold Glove! So did Fried!
https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-gold-glove-award-winners
Another World Series appearance getting wasted by the Astros. Y’know, I don’t really know if it’s good for the game if the best team doesn’t somewhat reliably win the World Series.
Lance McCullers vs the Phillies lineup was game over before the first pitch. This team destroys junk ballers. Pretty impressive. I find myself rooting against the Astros. I can’t help it.
@34 I’m kind of in the same bucket. I can’t actually bring myself to hate the Phillies very much, in contrast to the Mets or even the Nats. Even Bryce Harper has been totally fine since he grew up. In the end, I feel better losing to the eventual champs.
@35 – live up here with their fans. It’ll get easier to hate them real quickly.
The great part is that someone loses each game.
I rarely agree with Joe Biden, but he made a statement yesterday that just about everyone on Braves Journal can support:
“Phillies fans are the most virulent, obnoxious fans in the world.”
I don’t care for either team. But since one of them is going to win, I decided I’d prefer that to be the Astros. The only reason is Dusty Baker. I remember when he was called up as a 19 year old rookie, and I’ve liked him ever since. Mainly I love his stories about Henry Aaron and what a great mentor and role model he was.
But man, he doesn’t make it easy to pull for him as a manager. How do you leave McCullers in in the fifth inning?
I like Dusty too, but he’s never managed pitchers well. Just ask Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.
Astros in the same situation they had last year: Lose at home, win at home, lose on the road, down 1-2.
I’d prefer the Astros to win. I don’t want to deal with an already obnoxious fanbase after a third place team caught fire and won it all. But, it would be fun to see a narrative develop around the Astros and their difficulty in beating ~90 win teams from the NL East in the World Series.
See ya at Alumni Sundays, I guess.
@43. That seems high to me. I like Dansby and want him to stay a Brave. It may be an inflated market, but with the marquee SS options available this year I just don’t see him getting that level of contract. He’s a winning player but not superstar level. Too much offensive inconsistency and had a career year defensively that we are not sure is sustainable as he is soon heading on the downslope age wise. 6 at $25 million, with an option for another yr is the most I’d pay. But it ain’t my money as some will point out. The fact of the matter though is every team has a budget and while the Braves are definitely spending more, they still don’t have the resources of some of the big market teams and have to spend wisely.
He’s a smart guy and he talks to a lot of people in baseball so he’s clearly not by himself on an island when he says that — there must be a general industry opinion that Dansby belongs in that ~$200M tier, crazy as it sounds to me. I’m having trouble buying that he’s worth more than Xander Bogaerts or worth as much as Trea Turner, just given the massive disparity on the backs of their baseball cards. I get that this speaks to the extraordinary dearth of good defensive shortstops who can hit even a little, but… man. I think his defense will age gracefully, and perhaps his offense will too, but… boy, I dunno.
We will have a new thread later today.
There is zero chance Dansby gets that. Maybe if there weren’t three other free-agent shortstops out there, but there are. As is, there are two paths for Dansby: 1) Re-sign with the Braves early (in which case he’s not getting 8/240); 2) Play the field and become the last shortstop signed after all the other three do, right before spring training (in which case he’s not getting 8/240).
@43 – What I read sees Dansby at just over 25 million a year for 5 years. That seems a little more realistic, but I don’t know if we’ll do it or not.
If that’s all it costs, I’d do it in a heartbeat. But I can’t believe he’ll only get five years.
I wonder if our management philosophy is to basically run away from any and all long-term contracts that run deep into the age-30s. Seems that way so far to me. Also seems like it might be the odds-on right way to think. There’s lots of potential exceptions to that rule though. Tough call.
I log onto the internet and I see Keith Law is wrong again. Today’s day must end in Y.
A new thread! Yay!!!
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2022/11/02/where-do-we-go-from-here-the-outfield/