Today’s post, “Braves and Orioles Hypothetical Tradesâ€, is part 12 in our series focusing on teams that could be sellers or have some expiring contracts that could be attractive options for the Braves. If you’re just catching up, here are the previous 11 pieces:
- Braves and Reds Hypothetical Trade
- Braves and Cubs Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Rockies Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Diamondbacks Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Indians Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Royals Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Rangers Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Mariners Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Red Sox Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Tigers Hypothetical Trades
- Braves and Pirates Hypothetical Trades
Well, they weren’t the worst. In the race to the number 1 draft pick, the Orioles finished tied for 5th. Fortunately, being bad has been their forte. I’d even go as far as they’re downright excelling at sucking. Yes, 25 wins is 60 games is bad, but not near as bad as 54 or 47 in 162. The Orioles have had 4 straight years year of finishing 4th or 5th in their division. Fortunately, the draft rewards teams that suck by giving them high draft picks and the Orioles are building a pretty decent farm system. Unfortunately for them, the farm isn’t likely ready to produce in 2021 and 2022 might be a long-shot as well. Still, they’ll get another high draft pick in 2021 and they’ve finally decided to actually invest into the international market, so 2023 could be the year to come out of the cellar.
Trade Value of Anthony Santander
What do you do when you’re a bottom of the barrel team and you have a player that kind of came out of nowhere in 2019, built on it in a shortened season in 2020, and has 4 years of team control left? You sell. You freaking sell. Santander’s trade value comes in at $20.2MM.
Trade Value of Trey Mancini
In March of 2020, Mancini was diagnosed with Stage 3 Colon Cancer. After having the malignant tumor removed, Mancini is cancer free and has said he’ll be ready to go for Spring Training. That’s great news for the 29 year old, whose 2019 was a real breakout and now he’ll be looking to return to form after a full year off. While the bat plays, the glove does not. He’s a first baseman that’s been moonlighting as a corner OFer. Even with the forced year off, Mancini’s trade value comes in.at $12.3MM and he’s controlled through 2022.
Fake Trade Number 1
- Braves get Anthony Santander
- Orioles get Braden Shewmake and Tucker Davidson
This is tempting. On one hand, Shewmake could be the SS that takes over for Dansby Swanson when that time comes and uses his glove and bat to be a good super-utility until that time. On the other, he might never become either. I like Tucker Davidson a whole heck of a lot and I think he’s got real starter potential, but it costs to get talent and the Braves are rich in pitching.
Fake Trade Number 2
- Braves get Trey Mancini
- Orioles get Kyle Muller
Breakdown: I’d do this. Mancini isn’t much of a glove and there’s obviously some chance that he never comes back to full health, but having that RH thumper in the lineup is a must for the Braves and Muller, while very talented, is hard to predict.
Thanks for reading Braves and Orioles Hypothetical Trades. Thoughts?
Dear Braves Journal contributors,
Thank you for providing entertaining and thought provoking articles, but please pressure my Brave Hammers into a free agent signing or trade that strengthens the team.
Thank you.
Impatient
I am not sure I like the Muller for Mancini deal, but each side of this is a bit unpredictable. If Mancini is truly healthy, he is a good hitter but like was mentioned he is not Pache with the glove or anything close. Also, while our young starters are really good, we don’t have one with the kind of raw stuff Muller has. While it is tough to let that go, I guess eventually we need to trade a lottery ticket to somebody for a contributing major league player
@2
I’ve been the author on all 12 of these pieces and there’s an overwhelming amount of these that I wouldn’t do.
@3 Understood… I know you are simply the messenger with what potential deals could be out there. These are still enjoyable and thought provoking though
Another idea (for somebody else to research, if they want to do so):
Is there a competing AL team with a big need for a first, second, or third lefthanded reliever that might have something (Major League or prospect) to swap back to the Braves? I think the same could apply to NL teams not in the East division. This just seems to be a true surplus area with a good back up plan for injury and an area of strength from which to deal.
Question for you all. Let’s say the MLB decided on an international draft rather than a free for all signing (with limitations). Let’s also say that the worst team in the MLB had a choice of taking the first overall draft pick in either the international draft or regular MLB draft then move to the back of the line in the other draft. Which do you think they’d mostly choose? International or domestic?
It certainly IS the off-season. I’ll ask everyone around here again: anyone play OOTP?? I’ve got something you might be interested in if you do… it relates to a certain tool that some around here are fond of.
@6 I think it would be dependent on the talent pool that season. Most teams have expanded their scouting departments to cover international, so they would just base the choice based on whichever talent is better for their pick.
Having said it, at that point, why wouldn’t they just combine the two into one draft pool? They could expand the number of draft selections as well to compensate for the bigger pool of talent.
Additionally, how do you decide what players go to the draft versus declare for free agency? Is it as simple as playing pro ball in another league?
So I was looking at the history of trades between the Braves and Baltimore. https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1=ATL&franch_ID_2=BAL We know the recent recent ones, which “netted” the Braves Tommy Milone, Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach, and Darren O’Day. While only one of those worked out (O’Day) the Braves gave up very little for them. And going back, I remember when we gave up Earl Williams to get Davey Johnson, Roric Harrison, Pat Dobson and Johnny Oates. But the following transactions are fascinating:
August 30, 1965. The Milwaukee Braves purchased Harvey Haddix from the Baltimore Orioles.
September 2, 1965. The Milwaukee Braves returned Harvey Haddix to the Baltimore Orioles following previous purchase.
Talk about a rental! Haddix pitched for Baltimore on August 28th and did not pitch in Milwaukee, nor did he throw another pitch after returning to Baltimore. Flunked physical? Did the Braves get their money back?
[Edit] On August 30, Haddix was sold to the Milwaukee Braves, who were fighting for the pennant. Out of sheer honesty, he refused to report and retired instead. “I’d have finished the season if I could have, but there wasn’t much sense in changing when I knew I couldn’t help a new club the way my arm was feeling,” he said at the time. https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/harvey-haddix/
Don’t cheat, trivia time: In 2004, in the A-Rod for Alfonso Soriano trade, the Rangers were given a list of PTBNL options that included a future All-Star that the Rangers did not choose. Who was he?
Couple of us got JC’ed on last thread. This was my response to James wondering why folks are down on the Dans:
“At this point, Swanson is probably an above average SS. He was 6th amongst shortstops in fWAR last year. If you think his .810 OPS was a fluke, then sure, but there’s no denying that he’s now a very good shortstop. If he has another season like 2020, then I think you definitely extend him, especially if there’s a hometown discount.
I’ve said that we’re running out of positions to put an elite player at, so I’ve thought that trading Dansby in a deal to get a truly elite SS would make sense, but that’s the extent of any desire to not have him around.
Agreed on Riley. There’s simply no one you could plug in at 3B that’s remotely attainable that has the upside that Riley has. Maybe his bat doesn’t develop. Likely, even. But you’d be silly to not go for the home run ball at 3B (see what I did there?) by running him out there.”
@ 10,
I am going to go in semi crazy land and say Melky. I think he may have made an All Star team in his best year in the Bronx.
@12 No sir.
Is there not even one OOTP player on this blog? C’mon! I just want to know if what I have to share will make anyone happier…
I don’t play.
The O’s won’t trade Santander. He’s their prime hitter (along with Mountcastle), young and lots of control. He was a Rule 5 draft pick they knew could hit and they played him in the majors ahead of time waiting for him to develop. Now that he’s ready, they won’t lose him. They’ll build around him.
I ask the same question I’ve asked before. How is Mancini that much different from Duvall? Duvall is not quite as good a hitter but is a much better fielder. Duvall is actually probably more reliable at this point until Mancini gets his groove back. Mancini is a second tier possibility at DH if Ozuna signs elsewhere. Olney thinks the Braves won’t sign Ozuna even with the NL DH.
I play Baseball Mogul and asked Chief (I think) about OOTP last month.
DS, if your info applies to any baseball simulators, share away!
Yeah, my gang is a strat 365 group
@10, this would be a lot easier if I could remember who they were willing to offer for Johan Santana! I remember that Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy were all untouchable and off limits.
Was it someone like Shane Spencer? I always confuse him with Chad Curtis and Ricky Ledee and Clay Bellinger — Cody’s dad. They kept on coming up with these fourth outfielders who hit 15 homers off the bench. I feel like one of those guys randomly made an All-Star team at some point.
(EDIT: Spencer actually retired after 2004 and I am an idiot. Curtis’s last year was 2001, Ledee’s was 2007, Bellinger’s was 2002, and I have no conception of the passage of time.)
I’ve played OOTP since Day 1.
If Swanson hadn’t been drafted 1/1, (I know it wasn’t by the Braves…) he’d be a perfectly cromulent MLB player. But since I know that he was, he’s just not enough for me.
He obviously never should have been drafted that high.
@21 To counter that argument, I would say that Dansby just gave us 2.9 bWAR in 60 games. Although he has never played in more than 144 games, if we had a full season last year Swanson was on pace for ~7.8 bWAR. He showed us something new last season at the plate, and I think he is capable of being a 5+ bWAR player with his tools.
He’s not a super star slugger, but he just might put together a helluva a season really soon. Might even make top 3 in MVP voting if he does it. I don’t see why that’s not worth a 1-1 selection.
RE: OOTP – I had hoped to show it to Ryan first, but since he possibly doesn’t play OOTP I’ll just post the content here. I put in a logo and jersey request on the OOTP forums and someone made this for a certain Atlanta Hammers fictional squad:
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/showpost.php?p=4733390&postcount=10604
I’ve got a fictional league that my friend simmed about a hundred years for up to the present, so I’ve taken the Atlanta team and given them the Hammers makeover.
Hope y’all enjoy!
@22-continued.
For reference’s sake, Dansby Swanson was our second most valuable player.
Freddie Freeman was NL MVP with 3.1 bWAR.
Marcell Ozuna was worth 2.6 bWAR.
Normally, I don’t prop players whose value is this heavily propped up by defense. Even if we consider fWAR, Swanson’s value was 1.9 while Ozuna’s was 2.5. I just think that his ship has finally come in. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be one of our better players.
The answer to today’s trivia question is Robinson Cano! Stupid Rangers!
@21 What does a decision Arizona made about 21-year old Dansby have anything to do with 27-year-old Dansby?
DS, thats pretty cool.
60 games.
My biggest issue with Dansby is that typically he only posts to social media when he’s promoting a product.
@29 A lot better than hearing their political beliefs.
Seems like Marcus Semien is ripe for one of those genius one year pillow contracts. He’d be a pretty good 3B with Riley in LF.
Looks like the Mets are in high season mode.
Can’t make this stuff up.
https://tinyurl.com/yy9knbu6
New thread.
https://bravesjournal.mystagingwebsite.com/2021/01/19/10-for-00s-the-2000-atlanta-braves-season/