If Tim Hudson’s not careful, he’s going to start getting talked about for the Cy Young. Which means that I’m going to have to explain to the stats bolsheviks (I am a stats menshevik) that the award doesn’t go to the guy who “should have” been most effective.
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Well, that’s why the Braves traded Vazquez, right? Given a choice between those two, I’d say they chose well.
Franchise Single-Season ERA+ Leaders:
1. Greg Maddux 271 1994
2. Greg Maddux 262 1995
3. Tom House 196 1974
4. Rick Camp 195 1980
5. Greg Maddux 189 1997
6. Warren Spahn 188 1953
7. Greg Maddux 187 1998
8. Tim Hudson 180 2010
9. Phil Niekro 179 1967
10. Kid Nichols 172 1898
just took a glance at vazquez’s stats this year and what in the hell happened to his k rate? he’s down to 7.1/9 which is his lowest since…yup, his last stint in NY. his walk rate is much higher. it’s doubled from last year.
sansho1,
that Maddux guy must have been pretty good. Way to go Huddy.
I think it’s absolutely true that some stat people online overuse measures like FIP, forgetting that it attempts to predict future run prevention while ignoring runs allowed. On the other hand, I share some of the same concerns as a lot of the stathead Hudson naysayers: we know he’s good, sure, but how in blazes is he THIS good?
I think that at least part of the answer is that he was much luckier in the first part of the season. In his first 12 starts, he had a 2.44 ERA despite a downright bad 4.0 K/9 and 1.2 K/BB. That was unsustainable, and the statheads were probably right in saying so.
But he’s pitched much, much better since then. In his past 11 starts, he has a 2.04 ERA — and a 5.6 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB. That still isn’t particularly eye-popping, or even as good as his career averages, but it’s a hell of a lot better than what he was doing earlier in the season, when he was walking about as many people as he was striking out.
One form of this is a depersonalized argument: NO ONE can be considered elite if they have mediocre component ratios, neither Hudson nor 2009 Jair Jurrjens, and in its most basic, straw-man form, this is a stupid argument: if someone prevents runs, they prevent runs. But there was a legitimate anti-Hudson case to make earlier in the year, when he was striking out vastly fewer people than he usually did and yet surviving with minimal damage. THAT was correctly perceived as abnormal.
Can he keep pitching like a Cy Young candidate the way he’s going now? I doubt it. I still think he’s a strong #2 pitcher, like Jair Jurrjens. But I’d love to be proven wrong.
Bobby’s conceding the game today:
Infante 4
Cabrera 9
Gonzalez 6
Diaz 7
Glaus 3
Conrad 5
Ankiel 8
Ross 2
Lowe 1
Sometimes fielders prevent runs, too.
I like Hudson a lot, but he hasn’t been the best in the league. Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay have all been better. Of course, Hudson probably has been better than the guy who likely has a better chance of winning the award than the 4 I’ve mentioned–Ubaldo Jimenez.
But having a guy who makes $9 million for the next two years in the consolation bracket is just fine with me. Go Hudson go.
IBB ordered per game (low to high), Braves managers:
Ken Silvestri .000 (0/3)
Ted Turner .000 (0/1)
Vern Benson .000 (0/1)
Connie Ryan .185 (5/27)
Clyde King .310 (61/197)
Joe Torre .348 (169/486)
Lum Harris .352 (265/752)
Eddie Haas .364 (44/121)
Russ Nixon .368 (128/348)
Bobby Cox (2) .373 (1199/3218)
Bobby Cox (1) .378 (224/592)
Chuck Tanner .382 (138/361)
Ed Mathews .386 (120/311)
Bobby Bragan .402 (47/117)
Dave Bristol .444 (143/322)
Bobby Wine .951 (39/41)
Wine ordered three IBBs in a single game 5 times in his 41-game tenure.
@6
WTF
When Wine was managing there was always a man on 2nd with no outs.
@9:
It’s cool. The Braves obviously have the better bench in this game.
Wine once ordered an intentional walk when we were down 11-2 in the fifth inning. He managed the hell out of that game!
Re: the lineup: I can see sitting Heyward against a tough lefty and giving BMac his customary day-off after a night game, but I don’t get sitting Chipper, who after all has been going pretty well at the plate the last several games.
Peter, it’s certainly true that fielders prevent runs too. But I think there’s a tendency for some to mistake run components for runs themselves. The most important thing is that the runs didn’t score.
Mark Graybill,
I’d say that the days off are supposed to KEEP Chipper going good.
Yeah, I’d like to see Chipper in there. He’s been on fire lately. But I guess Conrad’s gotta get some burn at some point.
You know, Conrad doesn’t suck.
Remember when Hudson sucked? It wasn’t that long ago. I have no idea what he changed between 2005 and 2008, but I’m glad he did it. Do we credit McDowell with this?
Bobby Wine has to be among the all-time leaders in IBB%. That’s truly amazing.
If Hudson is a No. 2, then there are only like five No. 1s in all of Major League Baseball.
@18:
I think it was when he got his UCL replaced.
@20, He was going well before the surgery though. Losing him in 2008 was the reason we gave up on the season and traded away Tex after all.
I’m generally not one to ask the stats people on here if they’ve actually been watching the game. They have a different approach to the game than I do, and that’s fine. But I think the question applies here. Maybe not earlier this year, but since the start of summer, Hudson has been absolutely dominant, and there has been nothing fluky about it. What does it matter how he’s been this good? It only matters that he has, which was kind of Mac’s point. To call him a No. 2 starter right now is just absurd to me.
It probably didn’t hurt that Hudson threw a gem in front of the SABR 40 crowd.
19,
You think Hudson is ~one of the best six pitchers in baseball? Not buying that at all.
He’s certainly one of the best 10. But regardless of what specific number he is, the point is that way too few pitchers are considered aces if Tim Hudson is not. Even if he’s only in the top 30, he’s still a No. 1 pitcher. There’s gotta be at least as many aces as there are teams.
Well, I looked at the stats and he only had one bad year. I coulda sworn his bad spell was more prolonged than that. Maybe it just seemed worse at the time.
His 2006 looks a lot like Derek Lowe’s 09-10. Maybe there’s hope for DLowe after all.
My approximation of the ‘ace’ label is one of the best ten in the game. The next twenty are *only* no. 1’s, next thirty no. 2’s, et cetera. Doesn’t matter, it’s just a meaningless label.
But I’m still having a hard time believing Tim Hudson is one of the best ten pitchers in the game. Which of these guys would you like to have under contract in 2011 and 2012 for $19 million over Hudson:
Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, Roy Halladay, Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, David Price, Matt Garza, Francisco Liriano, John Danks, Justin Verlander, or Felix Hernandez.
My answer is all of them. That’s 14 pitchers that are clearly better than Hudson in my opinion. I left off a handful of the more contraversial ones like Jeremy Hellickson and Javier Vazquez–guys that I could go either way on. Still, Hudson falls more in the 20-40 range than top-10 for me.
That’s not to say he hasn’t been fantastic this year, just that there’s a fairly big difference between has been and is.
that lineup what the s***
PW,
if you’d rather have Lester, Oswalt, Haren, Garza, Liriano, Danks, Verlander or Hernandez than Hudson, we’ll have to agree to disagree.
I see only five better pitchers than Huddy in all of baseball now: Lincecum, Halladay, Lee, Wainwright and Santana. Sabathia is on the same level, and so might be two or three others. But Matt Garza? Come on.
Why does Bobby have to give all the guys a day off on the same day? Can’t Chipper get a day off tomorrow or something?
I get to see alot of Matt Garza ( I live in Ray’s TV territory) He is good, very impressive, but in my opinion Price has the higher upside, but I would take Garza on my staff any day. Jeff Neiman for that matter too….
Brian Jordan is kinda dumb.
I like Price a lot, hate his mechanics though. Same opinion of Strasburg.
This is a simpleton’s argument, but here goes:
the reason Hudson is outperforming his norm is that he is consistently keeping the ball down, which allows him to move from good to great.
When he was struggling (relatively) before his surgery, everything was elevated.
Same is true with DLowe. When he’s getting the kneecap call, he’s pretty effective.
Classic Sunday lineup.
Hudson has fully recovered from his Tommy John. His velocity is higher than anytime I have seen since we got him. This is the Tim Hudson that we thought we would be getting.
Why is Lowe wearing long sleeves? He keeps shaking his arm like it’s bothering him…and it’s really, really hot. New tattoos?
Dodgers DFAd ACHE. DON’T DO IT, FRANK!
Words can’t describe my utter disgust for Chip Caray.
Lowe who sweats more than 99.9% of all americans is wearing long sleeves on a 100 degree day, smart move.
I also dont understand why Bobby punts on all sunday games now. However, Chipper is the only person I dont like sitting today. Heyward and Hinske probably wouldnt do much against Sanchez anyways.
Why is Chip talking about a no-no in the 1st inning?
@39: That’s exactly what I’m talking about (re: 38)
And Buck says ” Matt Diaz has just recently started hitting lefthanded pitching” what a moron. DUH, he’s made his living doing it it, not sure I would have hit clean up though.
When, exactly, did Glaus die? I missed the obituary but I want to send a card.
I dont know, can you send Lowe a card also?
Just checking in… that lineup is putrid. Even for a Sunday. Good thing Lowe knows how to win.
defensive whiz!
D’oh!
Well, AAG is showing that we make up for our lousy hitting with lousy defense.
LOL
AAG taketh and he giveth
I refuse to believe that AAG meant to do that.
DOUBLE LOL
Can Chip scream any louder?
there’s some D
The way Lowe is pitching, we’re going to allow 17 runs (the Lisp should already be loosening up) so the lineup doesn’t matter a whole lot.
Stupid Mets winning 2-1. Won’t last.
Now THAT was some bad defense.
Edit: I also want to echo the hatred for Chip. Again.
Go Mets!
Chip is the reason that the mute button was invented.
Braves are 5 for their last 49 with RISP. That’s impressive in its own nauseating way.
Ross is the Boss.
Edit: Seriously, can he play first?
ROSS!
Wow. Sanchez really missed with that one!
Ross, nice. Maybe we can scratch a few runs out today. We’re gonna need ’em.
Sunday line-up be damned.
A. I think the SABR crowd on here that use arcana to justify EVERY observation that they make about a player is as inane as the non-SABR people that think that sabrmetrics are useless.
B. I also think that the multiple ‘bama’ fans on here colors the perception of Tim Hudson and his status as an ace. I think he he had matriculated in Tuscaloosa some would have a different perception about him. He’s a flat out mentally tough stud. HOW many times this year has he nutted up after a Braves losing streak?
Gosh, Chief, I’m the one saying that Hudson is a Cy Young candidate and I have two degrees from Alabama and live in Tuscaloosa County.
I’m referring to some of your bammerish buddies.
Obviously, those won/loss stats at Turner Field for the Giants don’t count the postseason, TOM.
Just like that, it’s 5-2 Phillies in the third. Told you. Jeffy not in lineup.
The main guy who is pointing out about Hudson’s peripherals is PWH who goes to Georgia Tech.
I thought Gonzalez got all of that one. Damn.
Melky Cabrera is King of the Dribblers.
Homer would have been nice, but getting a guy in from third with less than two out is a different kind of experience too.
The only reason you would compare Sandoval to Fielder, Chip, is that they’re both fat.
Well, I still think that Fielder’s nickname should be Tofu Panda.
does anyone think Chip reads blogs or anything that is written about him?
@74 No. In that way he’s like most other journalists of the “old” media.
How did that pitch miss Ankiel?
Tom Glavine is not cut out for the booth. He’s got as much personality as wallpaper.
way to go Taz
Does it help McCann and Jones to sit out 100 degree day game? Conrad and Ross are rested and enjoy the heat. Lowe likes it too.
@68, typical then. Nerds!
Watching these Braves’ two corner outfielders is both nerve-wracking and, from the tv viewer’s point of view, awful on the ears.
I know it’s Sunday, guys, but how about a few more runs, it *is* Lowe on the mound.
I confess that I grow a wee bit tired about hearing the word “luck” used to described anything apparently non-quantifiable. You can call it “unsustainable” you can can say that it “is way out of line with what we would expect”, but regardless, Tim is trying to do exactly what he is doing. It’s on purpose, not accidental. You can argue that his success this season may not be repeatable, but dismissing his results as luck is way overstating the case. To me it’s more analagous to an NBA player on a hot streak. Making 65% of your FGA for a season may be unlikely, but if a guy did it, you wouldn’t describe the event as “luck”
Omar!
Omar!
ALL STAR!!!
way to go Infanty, as Dick Stockton has been calling him all game
Put Prado at 1st when he returns
88
me gusta
Toronto’s Brandon Morrow has a no-hitter into the 8th against Tampa.
what the hell has happened to Ben Zobrist? he related to Glaus in some way?
how many times has tampa been no hit last two years?
Phils are up 6-2 now
Three, csg. (Plus a no-hitter in 2002 pitched by the Boston Red Sox’… Derek Lowe.)
What’s with Cain batting?
Having drafted Zobrist, I have no idea.
two this year already? or was it two last year?
Two this year (Braden on May 9 and Jackson on June 25). Last year’s was Buehrle’s perfect game.
With Renteria hurt and 13 pitcher there are only 3 bench players.
63,
Would you like to discuss baseball or would you like to keep poking at straw men and parading as the proud saber contrarian?
We’ve found our new Coach, good to have him back.
Luis Durango is awesome.
To follow up on Spike’s comment, one of the reason some people say Hudson is lucky is that he has a low BABIP and some expect that to regress to some higher number since it’s much lower than that for other pitchers.
But just watching a cut-up of the balls put in play against Hudson, like they did in one of his games a while ago, where you see pretty much every single ball being chopped into the ground in just about the exact same spot, it should be pretty obvious that there can’t be something like an average BABIP on grounders that all pitchers will gravitate towards.
And I have the utmost respect for the SABR crowd, I just think it’s clear that some things can’t really be measured and averaged out.
atta boy Glaus
need to open this one up and let Venters/Wagner have a game off
Books!
raw dog!
#39 – I retract my post, Chipper should be sitting today also
102
I thought Bobby was still manager. Or is this 2023 and flying cars have been finally invented?
I know he isnt flashy, but boy i see why Cox likes Conrad, i love him too!
100,
Any sabermetrician whose worth his salt will tell you that BABIP is highly influenced by batted ball types. The primary reason for Hudson’s low BABIP is the fact that he’s sporting the highest GB% in the majors (I think, haven’t checked). Let’s not take the fangraphs groupthink and assume everyone who thinks math is useful for evaluating baseball subscribes to it, OK?
Morrow’s no-hitter is intact through 8. He’s struck out 16.
BABIP is lower for grounders than for line drives or fly balls. Nothing better than sitting in shade drinking lemonade and watching schrubs score runs
Ankiel’s “approach” at the plate is eerily reminiscent of Francoeur.
@108, that may be the geekiest thing I’ve ever read. Wow, just wow. Some of you guys are unreal. /straw man
#109 – nothing like having that line on your bench in fantasy also
BABIP is lower for grounders than for line drives
100% correct.
or fly balls.
100% wrong.
112 — And you’re proud to be dumb?
“that may be the geekiest thing I’ve ever read. Wow, just wow. Some of you guys are unreal. /straw man”
Ah, ad hominem attacks. Meanwhile, the post in question is coherent and actually agrees with Chief’s larger point, though Chief isn’t bright enough to understand that. Stay classy Chief.
@108, that may be the geekiest thing I’ve ever read.
That tells me pretty much all I need to know about your reading history.
Reductionist PWH for you – Ground balls are converted into outs more often than balls in the air. Tim Hudson is throwing more ground balls than anyone else. The result is that he gets a lot of outs and gives up few hits.
Is this that “geeky”? Seems like something baseball guys have known since the invention of the game.
Lowe is either cramping or he’s pulled a hammy
I’m willing to bet most of the members of this board never played baseball past T-ball. Of that I’m pretty certain. And APBA doesn’t count.
I can read fine. I’m also not dumb.
The Braves defense is terrible and I don’t need to see UZR or RF+ to know that, though.
Peter, that was pretty much why I stated “some people”. Not everyone (nor every SABR oriented person) is claiming that Hudson will plummet and he’ll have a 4+ ERA the rest of the season, but some do throw around the “luck” and “unsustainable” monikers.
110, yeah I’m aware of that. Hudson’s BABIP is usually compared to the NL (or ML) average on ground balls. I’m just saying it’s hard to claim that all ground balls are made equal.
Scary.
Dear whoever is announcing on TBS:
Error is not pronounced “era.”
I dont see why ESPN cant show the last IP for Morrow. I guess Nascar and ATP tennis are more exciting
It’s on MLB Network.
Bobby with the quick hook today. Maybe he did notice Lowe tend to go nuclear at some point during the sixth.
So if Lowe got hurt, would they put Kawakami back in the rotation? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!!!
Just kidding!
Morrow loses it with 2 outs in the 9th.
No-no no more.
Most HRs are fly balls. Most double plays are grounders. Lots of pop flys have dropped in.
Phillies’ lead is down to 6-5 in the 7th.
Was the infield single to break up the no-hitter Yunel’s fault?
so far today 2 SF fly balls have been outs, yesterday only 1
Nope, it was hit in the hole on the right side. The second baseman dove to knock it down, but couldn’t corral it to throw to first.
Doesn’t look like it; GameDay says “deflected by second baseman Aaron Hill.”
I played baseball till I was 13. Terribly. I suck at sports.
I agree with spike that the word “luck” is incredibly imprecise. The reason I think Hudson’s a #2 (another incredibly imprecise term): I’ve been watching him for the past six seasons as a Brave, and the six years before that as an Athletic, and he hasn’t pitched this well since, well, ever. The last time he had an ERA under 3.00 was 2003, when he was 27. He’s 34 this year. Over the last six seasons, I feel like I’ve gotten a pretty good sense of who he is, with 2006 (when he had a 4.86 ERA) at one end, and 2010 at the other end, as the absolute boundaries of awesomeness and sucking. I didn’t think that 2006 was his true talent level; I don’t think 2010 is his true talent level.
I’m not saying it’s all smoke and mirrors and all a mirage; I’m saying he’s very very good, but he’s not THIS good.
Bloop King at it again.
120,
Yeah, unfair of me, my apologies. I’m just tired of being lumped with the people that take rudimentary saber concepts and apply them across a broad spectrum of players, something that someone who knew what they were doing wouldn’t. Again, not that you did this. Just me being reactionary to Coach II.
So if Lowe got hurt, would they put Kawakami back in the rotation? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!!!
Would it be weird if I said I hope so?
138, Don’t worry about it 🙂
You know you are listening to the opponent’s announcers when you hear “Cabrera is a threat to run.”
“I don’t know what lesson we’re supposed to learn from all this, except that Moylan really should stick to one inning at a time.”
Ankiel broke in on a home run.
Venters warming up, in accordance to his usage patterns of pitching on days that end in “y.”
@136 – why couldn’t he be this good? I seem to remember him being this good for Oakland. What if the surgery helped him to regain his pre-atlanta form? I believe he is this good.
Heeeeeeere’s Jonny.
17K no way! Morrow shut out even though he pitched 137. I hate it seriously. crazy!
Bobby overuses Jonny. I really hate it.
144- Venters with another shining performance.
143 — His ERA+ in his Oakland years was 136. This year, it is 180.
I seem to remember him being this good for Oakland.
Well, it depends on what you mean by “this good.” His best ERA as an Oakland Athletic was 2003, when he posted a 2.70 ERA (165 ERA+). This year, his ERA is 2.24 (180 ERA+), a good bit better. On the other hand, he’s striking out fewer people and walking more people than he did in 2003, so his components are significantly worse; as a result, his 2010 FIP is 4.00 and xFIP is 4.11, way worse than his 3.38 FIP and 3.51 xFIP in 2003.
If you’re going by FIP, Hudson was better in 1999, 2001-2004, and 2007-2009. If you’re going by ERA, Hudson has never had an ERA this low. So it’s beyond anything he’s ever done before.
EDIT: Yeah, what braves14 said.
Jonny was a little wild, he could use a couple of days of rest, but a double play works.
How many times are Joe Simpson and Chip Caray going to call Rick Ankiel’s groundout to second earlier “the biggest hit of the game”?
Matthew Diaz, National League Base Ball player.
Matt the Speed Demon.
It’s unlikely Hudson would suddenly become THIS good at this juncture in his career. While he has not necessarily been “lucky” of late–he has performed great, undoubtedly–he will in all likelihood not sustain this level of dominance. So be it. He should still be good, if not very good. That ground ball rate is impressive.
In other news, I’m glad to see we’re back to stranding runners. It was getting fun for a while there–the boys must have wanted to jerk us back to reality.
They’re really going to strand Diaz at third with no outs, aren’t they?
I read a article Jonny battled elbow ailments in each of his first five professional seasons. Most of his pitching by Jonny is sinker which has a harmful effect on his elbow. I start hating bobby cause I’d like to protect him. I love his pitching so much.
Things To Do When You Have a Runner on Third With No Outs:
1) Not strike out looking
2) Not strike out swinging
3) Not pop up
The Braves didn’t even consider the other items on the list, like:
499) Take a look at the third base coach and see if a suicide squeeze or a straight steal of home is on
500) Hit a Baltimore chop
501) If the infield is back, beat the ball on the ground
502) Hit a sacrifice fly
503) Actually get a base hit
The previous inning & the one where we left the bases loaded with no outs make this game an uneasy experience. And no Wagner today. Do we see Farnsworth in the 9th?
BTW, the 3 guys replacing Chipper, McCann & Heyward are 5 for 11 w/ 2 runs, 3 RBIs (but also 2 Ks & 4 LOB).
Mets die with the tying run on 3rd in the 9th vs. Lidge. Let’s win this one, boys.
Did Glaus hurt himself standing there or did Bobby finally admit Hinske’s a better first baseman?
Mets fail to come back, losing 6-5.
“Bowel-locker”? Really Joe?
Stupid Mets. And Jeffy, yesterday’s hero, didn’t play. Serves them right.
Venters really couldn’t get one more out?
The answer to “who was Glavine’s first strikeout victim” is Ken Caminiti. Which might explain why the subject was dropped so suddenly….
Let’s not also forget that all of the guys in the booth may not have ever heard of the internet, and simply may not have known that the answer was easily retrievable.
Also, is there a particular reason that we suddenly put a couple lefties in the lineup without at least forcing the other team to make a pitching change? What are the odds the Giants neutralize everyone with a LOOGY?
Great work, Diory! You can now do the hitting job of a pitcher!
Every time I bad mouth Smelky, he does something like that.
Melky practicing for his future as a second base ump.
LOLKY Cabrera
Mr. Saito.
I’ve decided that’s pretty much who Melky is: a week of absolutely nothing, followed by one day where he helps to win the game. Rinse and repeat.
Everytime Sanchez comes up to the plate I half expect him to change into a bunch of green clothes and run off to save Princess Zelda while playing an ocarina.
Three out of four from the wild-card leaders. That’ll work.
Nice.
BTW, you think we got problems? In this series, the Giants went 2 for 33 with RISP.
Saito happy time jovial save
Good series win.
So, is Venters the closer next season?
177,
I would not have a problem with that. In fact, a good many teams have made homegrown young talent their closer lately, and almost all of them to great success. Venters certainly has the stuff and he does not look like a head case either. No need to spend 10 million there!
At least if he becomes the closer he’ll get some rest.
Nice. Happy Sunday everyone.
Overused pitchers, like Venters, do not become closers the next year. They sit out after having TJ surgery. (See Moylan a couple of years ago… and many other examples). Venters is fun to watch, and I hope I’m wrong.
Recapped.