Randall Delgado is not supposed to be in the starting rotation to start the year, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get at least one April start. Delgado put up an impressive 2.83 ERA in seven major league starts last year, but he was awfully lucky, striking out just 18 in 35 innings while walking 14 and giving up five home runs: obviously, that isn’t sustainable. However, he looked really strong, and his minor league numbers were good. Given that he was just 21, the long-term outlook is promising.
Julio Teheran, in less work, had similar peripherals to Delgado (19 2/3 IP, 10 K, 8 BB, 4 HR) but was a lot less fortunate, allowing a 5.03 ERA. But in Gwinnett, he was 15-3 with a 2.55 ERA at the age of 20, and maintained his status as one of the best prospects in the game. It is not unusual for elite pitching prospects to struggle a bit in their first major league exposure; actually, I get a bit nervous when they do too well at first. The strikeout rate will go up, and the home run rate will go down, and the future is very bright.
Kris Medlen pitched in only two games, in relief, after returning from Tommy John surgery, giving up just one hit and no runs. It’s my opinion that he is more valuable as a starter than as a reliever, but he’s likely to wind up in the bullpen for this season anyway, out of a combination of team needs and being cautious… Arodys Vizcaino was used exclusively as a reliever in the major leagues, and it’s not clear right now if the Braves think he’s going to be a starter or not. If he stays healthy and conquers his control, he’ll be outstanding in some role… Todd Redmond is 27 years old and had a 2.92 ERA last season in Gwinnett. He is completely off the radar right now, but might be an emergency starter candidate… Zeke Spruill is a non-roster invitee and probably a year away from being thought of as a major league possibility, though the Braves have been aggressive in promoting pitching prospects in recent years. There just doesn’t seem any need to push him.
Since there is an off day after the first game will the fifth starter not be on roster until the sixth game?
Mac “La Machine” Thomason is on a roll.
Really excited about Delgado and Vizcaino.
And what do you do with Medlen? Long relief? Seems like a waste, but maybe that’s his spot this year.
Beginning to think a six-man rotation is not so stupid, after all (if Fredi will use someone in relief other than O’Ventbrel).
Good to see you writing more Mac!
O’MedVentbrel? Spot starter? If Hanson, JJ or TH have trouble?
So after 19 seasons, 200 wins and 3,200+ innings, Tim Wakefield finally retires. I can still remember how he almost ruined the Braves in the 1992 NLCS…
Wren apparently put the kibosh on the 6-man rotation idea in his classroom chat at Georgia Tech, according to the twits and tweeters in attendance. Said that it took the sharpness off the starters due to the extra day of rest. CAC has the relevant link.
Edit: Of course that probably means we will see a 6-man rotation at some point this season.
I remember even casual as well as long time Braves fans being terrified of Tim Wakfield in ’92. How could you not love the guy? It was just the damndest thing.
I’ve always believed that an accomplished knuckleballer was more valuable than a brain-dead 100 mph heaver.
Maybe it’s all those years of watching Neikro be the only pitching we had but if it’s truly about WINNING, embracing the funk when all about you are spazzing out because of said funk is about as sound a strategy as you can create.
Let’s say you’ve faced Wakefield or Neikro all game and in walks O’Ventbrel. Their really overpowering stuff looks twice as fast as usual and, believe me, keeping hitters off-balance AT EVERY LEVEL is the key to successful pitching.
Proof? In the playoffs, the Reds bring in their Cuban flamethrower who’s LIVING above 100 mpg against the Phillies. Five batters and three rockets later, the Reds are scrambling to find someone who can get these damn guys to check swing or pop up instead of turning that really impressive fastball around for a gapper to the wall.
A lost art. Were I Wren, one of my dictates would be to find the next Neikro.
I like threes. I love dunks.
I got a bit of inside info from Snitker. He said that Hudson is not recovering like the Braves thought he would and he might be out until June. He also thinks that Teheran will be the hands-down ROY and will be our ace by June.
Jeremy Lin is averaging 7 turnovers a game. That’s a problem…
@10,
The way they are talking about Hudson (He is in the best shape of his life. In fact, he is in such good shape, we may give him the spring off as it won’t be fair to the others…) I could imagine him missing most of the year.
@10 – I hope that means he thinks Teheran is going to be great by June, and not that he thinks Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens are going to be on the DL by June.
Not good news about Hudson. Not good news at all.
I have this dark vision that all of this deep pitching devolves to:
“Now starting for your Atlanta Braves – Peter Moylan” and then they play something from Men At Work.
————-
Auburn Basketball is turning it around. That play from Gabriel(?) where he steals the lob on one end and then catches a no-look pass for a reverse dunk was fantastic.
Of course, now MSU is desperate and will make their season Tuesday night.
Bill James has never read Moneyball.
DOB Tweet: “Hudson, recovering from back surgery, said there’s long way to go but back feels great. Maybe late April, early May return.”
So, July, at best.
July 2013
DOOMED
I’m not worried, because we have like 15 possible starters.
@15 – Mac, that doesn’t seem possible.
We won’t be going to a six man rotation because by June 1, we’ll only have five healthy starters.
Doooooomed, etc. etc.
That’s what he says. “I never read “Moneyball”, for one thing.”
Might be kinda like Einstein not bothering to read Hoyle.
PECOTA projections for various Braves shortstop candidates:
Hicks: .216/.283/.345
Pastornicky: .250/.294/.330
Jack Wilson: .264/.305/.346
Josh Wilson: .235/.285/.327
And
Simmons: .253/.277/.319
Whee!
New poll.
Well, at least maybe that’ll put to rest any thought that Hicks should be starting.
Hicks in 2011 was one of the most soul-crushing, dread-inducing “hitters” the Braves sent up to the plate in a long time. Even if Pastornicky is not an elite prospect, would rather see him start on the off-chance of something miraculous.
There’s an argument that since they all suck, you might as well play the best glove. That’s probably Josh Wilson, unless it’s already Simmons. Though Hicks at least sucks in a different way.
Other: Maicer Izturis.
@25 – Ugh, that is not what I needed. SS is going to be an offensive black hole, no matter who among Pastorhickson finds his way onto the field.
AG had .642 OPS last year. Little difference and no 2 year contract,
#32 – Same offensive production but a huge dropoff defensively. Shouldve offered him arb.
I’m not surprised James hasn’t read Moneyball. Why would he need to read his own work being made palatable to the masses?
Amazing. I just voted for Pastornicky, and it looks like we all did. I think it’s Stockholm Syndrome.
You do not think AG is losing range?
Probably a little, but he was still one of the best defensive SS in all of baseball last season.
What? 14 of 22 min 1000 innings
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=&rost=&players=
This would be a good point to remind the class that no one in the community takes defensive metrics seriously outside of a three year sample.
It’s unlikely that Pastornicky will be worse, all around, than Alex Gonzalez’ 2011.
Fine with me – I don’t really like them even then – but that is hardly an affirmative argument for the assertion in 37.
True. I’m certainly not attempting to affirm #37. Alex Gonzalez was a bad player, who was the best of the available options in 2011. What value he brought was defensive. He has historically been a top tier defensive player, according to both scouting and the fuzzy metrics we have for defensive statistics. All that being the case, I see no reason to think that Gonzalez, another year older, would bring enough probable upside, if any, to warrant spending those millions on him instead of going with the dirt cheap internal option.
They couldn’t or wouldn’t afford Jose Reyes. Jimmy Rollins would have required an overpay into his aging (further) years. As such, you’re down to fungible parts, and you might as well go with the really cheap fungible part that your scouts love for his “baseball face” or whatever.
I don’t disagree with the sentiment that Pastornicky is probably a better option than AAG for us, all things considered. But shouldn’t we have traded for Scutaro? Surely we could have topped Colorado’s offer and it would have been worth it.
I’m skeptical at the final accounting of AAG’s 2011 defense, but the breakdown of the metric makes some sense. Below average range and above average at avoiding errors spells a shortstop who is faster with his hands than with his feet. That’s pretty much Alex these days.
@43 does FF deserve some of that credit?
Sure. Freddie was among the league leaders in “scoops” for a while there. But I also remember Alex making lots of nice throws while on his knees that, say, Elvis Andrus probably makes from his feet….
It is what it is and you just better get used to it.
/birdman
At least Baseball Propsectus is much higher on the Braves for this year and the future than Keith Law. BTW, having the BP Annual on Kindle is nice but it’s not much good as a resource since there is no table of contents.
Though AAG’s defense seemed to even out at the end of 2011, he was making at least one phenomenal play a night at the beginning of the year. I think we’ll miss his defense, and hopefully Pastornicky can be average with the bat to offset it.
By mid-year, Alex had figured out that he could just vomit anything in Freddie’s direction and Freeman would catch it.
Really lazy, oddly self-absorbed at the end. Pastornicky will be a breath of fresh air.
My copy has a ToC.
Let’s give the kid a chance. I never thought Prado would become anything more than a bench player.
Chipper named his boy Shea. Always brings a smile to my face.
http://tinyurl.com/7e76sl9
Still in LA & is it any surprise that I’m hearing more Angels/Albert talk than anything Dodger-related? Kinda like NYC, it’s 2 clubs going in very different directions.
New post.