Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves – Box Score – July 17, 2011 – ESPN.
What a strange game is baseball. The Braves led 2-0, were tied at 2, trailed 6-2, led 7-6, trailed 8-7, tied it at 8, then won with two out in the ninth. And that’s the least of it.
The Braves got two runs off of Tom Gorzellany in the first; Jordan Schafer walked, stole second, went to third on an error, and scored on a Martin Prado single. Prado later scored on a bases-loaded wild pitch. But they really should have gotten at least one more run, and didn’t.
The Nats tied it in the third on a weird play. Roger Bernadina hit one into the gap, and Gorzellany was sent all the way from first. He really should have been out, but Dan Uggla‘s relay was very bad and runner and catcher collided far from the plate; the ball bounced away and Bernadina scored too. Gorzellany was hurt and left the game.
Jair Jurrjens had a fourth inning where all those balls in play didn’t just find holes, they found gaps, and turned into extra-base hits. Two singles, three doubles, and a triple later it was 6-2. But in the bottom of the fifth, Wilkin Ramirez doubled, and pinch-hitting Jason Heyward was hit in the foot by a pitch. Schafer singled in Ramirez, then stole second. Prado grounded out, but Brian McCann, the best catcher in baseball, hit one out and it was tied. Freddie Freeman walked and Uggla singled, and Freeman scored on a Alex Gonzalez groundout; suddenly, the Braves led 7-6 and Jurrjens was in line for the win.
Fredi went with George Sherrill in the sixth, which only goes to show how little faith he has in the righthanders, not that he should have any. With two out, Sherrill, pitching for the third day in a row, allowed a two-run homer to Danny Espinosa and it was 8-7.
Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters did their seventh and eighth inning things with no problems. With two out in the bottom of the eighth, Nate McLouth homered to tie it. Craig Kimbrel allowed a couple of two-out baserunners in the ninth, but got out of it. Brooks Conrad led off the bottom of the inning with a walk. After a Schafer sacrifice (grr…) Prado grounded out to short, with Conrad getting thrown out on the fielder’s choice. They weren’t paying proper attention to Prado, though, and he stole second, after which McCann was intentionally walked. Freeman singled down the right-field line to end it.
I thought the Schafer sac was totally fine there. Crappy hitter advances baserunner for your best three guys, and you need one hit to win the ballgame, which is (sort of) what happened.
I agree, Spike. I think a sacrifice is fine there
Good, strange win. Kudos to Fredi for bringing O’Ventrel in without a lead.
And congratulations Japan. They appeared to be the inferior team for 120 minutes, but came back twice and won.
Gearrin in that 6th inning please.
Uggla has a .898 OPS for July so far.
Is it safe to assume that Uggla will be his true self from now on for the rest of his contract? He sure looked good at the plate for the last two weeks or so.
Is it true Chuck James is back in the majors? Wonder how that’ll work out
“Is it true Chuck James is back in the majors? Wonder how that’ll work out”
Whatever happens: it’ll surely involve a home run.
Yeah, I was pretty much okay with the Schafer sacrifice, too. After all, his OBP is still under .300.
If Conrad had stayed at second McCann would have been walked anyway. The Legend of Freddie continues.
Just for fun: K/BF, Career
– Greg Maddux: 16,50%
– Bob Gibson: 19,39%
– Mariano Rivera: 22,93%
– Roger Clemens: 23,08%
– Nolan Ryan: 25,31%
– Eric Gagne: 26,95%
– Randy Johnson: 28,56%
– John Rocker: 29,38%
– Brad Lidge: 31,23%
– Billy Wagner: 33,22% (highest I could come up with other than CK)
– Craig Kimbrel: 40,29%
Tom, this is an American message board centered on an American baseball team playing in a almost completely American league a sport developed in America. We don’t take kindly to people who use commas like that here in the States. USA! USA!
Tom, I took that query to baseball-reference. Here’s the all-time top 20:
1. Craig Kimbrel: 40.29%
2. Stephen Strasburg: 33.58%
3. Billy Wagner: 33.22%
4. Rob Dibble: 32.59%
5. Brad Lidge: 31.24%
6. Jonathan Broxton: 30.67%
7. Takashi Saito: 30.42%
8. Francisco Rodriguez: 30.23%
9. John Axford: 30.22%
10. David Robertson: 30.17%
11. Carlos Marmol: 29.93%
12. Sergio Romo: 29.86%
13. John Rocker: 29.38%
14. Armando Benitez: 29.08%
15. Jonathan Papelbon: 28.99%
16. Ernesto Frieri: 28.87%
17. Randy Johnson: 28.56%
18. Octavio Dotel: 28.54%
19. Bryan Harvey: 28.32%
20. Hong-Chih Kuo: 28.08%
(You can view the list of players here, but in order to rank them you have to export the stats to a spreadsheet and manually put in the formula for K/BF, then sort.)
Freddie’s now at an .801 OPS, around 120 OPS+, and has been hotter than hell in July despite a .286 BaBIP. Just as we all hoped, about 2 months to figure out the next level, and then taking off.
Also, career H/9IP, over 50 IP:
1. Craig Kimbrel, 5.27
2. Kenley Jansen, 5.31
3. Neftali Feliz, 5.37
12. Jonny Venters, 6.05
15. Joey Devine, 6.15
A few more comps….
JR Richard 22.37%
Trevor Hoffman 25.8%
Kerry Wood 27%
Pedro Martinez 27.7%
Combining the two lists…
K/H, career (50+ IP):
1. Craig Kimbrel, 2.82
2. Kenley Jansen, 2.62
3. Carlos Marmol, 2.04
4. Billy Wagner, 1.99
5. Rob Dibble, 1.94
Marathon of a game. Thrilled to see us take the series from the freaking Natties. Man I hate those guys.
So, what are your expectations on Freddie Freeman’s career?
Bummed about the WWC. Japan is a deserving champion. Alex Morgan is going to be a superstar. In soccer too.
I wonder if the Lowe trade rumor has any legs at all?
I wonder if Freeman will start slow next year as well. He’s historically been a slow starter in the minors but that’s with him moving up a level. Not sure if his starts are slow because of the promotion or if he just never heats up until June.
@18, I could see a lot of 300/370/470 25+HR years. Mark Grace with a bit more power.
/No reason he wouldn’t inherit the Pujols/Gonzalez designated Gold Glove if he keeps hitting either
I think Freeman is the front runner to ROY. He has been a huge upgrade at first and has been a lot better than most people expected
Freddie’s been great. Uggla’s hitting. Things are looking up!
Also, bunting with your .235/.295/nothing hitter is 100% fine IMO. In the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, it’s actually one of the few times it’s probably an unambiguously GOOD decision to sacrifice ! Let Prado, McCann, etc. get a shot at it.
Freeman by month:
Apr: 695 OPS
May: 802
Jun: 866
Jul: 963
I know it’s artificial to break out monthly stats and SSS and all that, but still, I like where this is heading…
Casey Kotchman: .340/.398/.474
Didn’t expect that.
Not since ’06 anyway – career .323/.406/.491 minor leaguer
I think it’s fine to break down one-year stats by month if the trend you’re getting is as clearly linear as Freeman’s has been. I don’t think he’ll do as well as he’s done this month the rest of the way, but his June numbers seem reasonable.
I will take .866 OPS the rest of the year from a 21 year old rookie all day long, and twice on Sunday.
I will take .866 from Heyward the rest of the way too, if possible.
Freddie’s hitting has been such a pure pleasure. It’s been remarkable to see his major league career look just like his minor league career. I’m really enjoying the thought of rooting for him for the better part of this decade.
That said…
Adam LaRoche, in a Braves uniform (2004-2006): .272/.343/.455 (114 OPS+
Freddie Freeman, in a Braves uniform (2010-2011): .265/.332/.447 (113 OPS+)
He hasn’t actually been better than the guy we all hated.
But, you know, Freeman is 21, and LaRoche was 24 in his first MLB season.
@27, of course. But given his age relative to league stats throughout his career, a peak ML performance in that range is not far-fetched.
@29, point taken, but again, finishing with an OPS+ north of 110 is a heck of an accomplishment for a 21 year old and bodes for a bright future as opposed to 25 yo LaRoche. And ol’ Adam turned 4 straight good years with the stick after that (OPS+ 120 06-09). I’d take that right now out of Freddie.
Oh, of course. I don’t doubt that Freeman has more potential. But we have all enjoyed Freeman’s production this season, while a lot of us were kind of pissed off that LaRoche didn’t do better. LaRoche never really got a whole lot better than he was in his first couple years with the Braves, and Freeman may improve markedly from the hitter he is now. But the similarity of their stats in their first years of service with the Braves certainly struck me as interesting.
On the other hand…
Freddie Freeman, in a Braves uniform (2010-2011): .265/.332/.447 (113 OPS+)
Scott Thorman, in a Braves uniform (2006-2007): .222/.260/.407 (70 OPS+)
So thank goodness for that.
Hey… if any of you BravesJournalers are planning on being at Dan Uggla Bobblehead Night vs. the Giants, I’d love to meet you! I already promised all the members of TC that show up free ice cream if I can manage a 32 on my MCAT… and I should find out tomorrow or Tuesday!
Fingers crossed for you, desert. I’m sure you did great.
Thanks, AAR. It’s really weird. I got advice from you guys as to what classes to take in high school, what college to attend, now my MCAT, I’m pretty sure I’ll be looking for advice here for the next few decades. Thanks, everybody.
@35 Ditto to what Alex said, I’m sure you rocked it out.
It’s so weird to see Freeman come up and really perform well with Heyward in this neverending funk.
This is not an attempt to pile on Heyward, but out of curiosity, what do people here think the Vegas odds would be on Freeman having a better career than Heyward going forward?
I don’t know what to make of Heyward. The Cliff Floyd comparisons are starting to rear collective heads again…and while Floyd was a good player, my expectation has been that Heyward’s bat should eventually play out more like Eddie Matthews.
Of course, he’s still only 21 (aka the Frenchy defense) and it’s not like the Braves have any other real options. Definitely been frustrating to watch him lately though.
If Heyward stays healthy, he will be elite. The walk rate he posted last year was eye-popping. His batting eye has always been his most consistent skill, from high school to the minors to the majors. And though it’s taken a step backward this year — encouraged, I believe, by the pain in his shoulder and back — I believe that his innate walk ability is a lot closer to what it was last year than what it is this year.
Of course, he might always be fragile. But if he manages to become a consistent 150 game a year player, then he will be elite in the league.
@39
Agreed. Everybody, and I mean everybody, who pays attention to such things has predicted greatness for Heyward. His struggles at age 21 have taken the form of an essentially league average hitter. He has a 96 OPS+. Brian McCann’s OPS+ at age 21 was 95. Feel better?
We don’t take kindly to people who use commas like that here in the States. USA! USA!
LOL. I’ll bear it in mind…
The numbers on Heyward don’t bother me as much as the injuries. I know his numbers will be good, but I’m losing faith in his body holding up.
#39 – Or he could be JD Drew.
@38,
Expecting a 21 year old to turn out like Eddie Mathews, who is one of the 50 best players of all time, is asking a lot.
J.D. Drew has been worth about 45-50 WAR in his career, which makes him a fringe Hall of Fame candidate. But he has only had two seasons as good as Heyward’s rookie year. Basically, J.D. Drew has been a 3-4 win player for fourteen seasons. Heyward came out of the gate a five-win player. J.D. Drew would be a sensational outcome for Heyward. But Heyward is already that good, and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be better when he turns 22.
Hey, it’s a tough league. Give the man a break.
I’m with AAR, if you told me today that Heyward would put up JD Drew numbers for his carrer, I’d take it.
@35 – I fear the thought of Braves Journalers offering online diagnoses and treatment advice.
Yeah JD Drew would be a good outcome but not elite. I saw once that Drew was voted the by his peers as the player that got the least from his ability.
Drew is an enigma. Recognized for immense talent he has had, outside of a few years, under achieved.
I don’t think Heyward is going to be like Drew. But I am not totally convinced that he is going to be a superstar either.
A hot streak would go a long way towards alleviating those concerns, to be sure.
Re ROY: it’s not just Braves in contention. Danny Espinosa has been pretty damn good although I don’t know how his overall stats compare to Freeman and Kimbrel. But he could end up with 30-35 home runs and playing a great second base.
According to Keith Law, LaRussa is still not getting along with Rasmus and doesn’t like young players. Is there a chance? What would you give up?
His father is apparently outspoken against the Cards also. He’s mentioned several times that Rasmus has requested a trade. Minor/Hoover/Schafer/+ for Rasmsus?
Can Beachy not be considered for ROY?
@50,
I’d love to get him, but if what is being said about his attitude and his dad, then I would imagine the Braves would stay away from him. That seems like a perfect example of a player the Braves historically avoid.
Smitty,
You mean like Gary Sheffield?
@47 – Hell, we’ve already been giving Chipper and Heyward diagnoses and treatment ideas for years.
#55 – Which is probably better advice than what these guys are getting from the team doctors.
@48, 13+ years of plus RF defense, 900 OPS, and 125 OPS+ @ an average of around 470 PA/yr is pretty damn good – I’d call it “elite” but ymmv.
Bobby and the Braves don’t like Tony, though. Not getting along with him is not necessarily damning. And, if course, we already have a relationship with the family.
51—You could swap Minor out for Teheran and I’d still do it.
This is kind of a strange thought, but does anyone else think that Chipper is rushing back from this knee injury to send Heyward a message, given what he said to him earlier this season? I can’t help but feel like Chipper would have taken a lot more time easing back in if the situation were different.
Bethany,
I think he realizes his time in the game is short and he wants to play as much as he can. I would be surprised if he came back next year.
But, also, I think his issue with the knee is discomfort. I don’t think there is any issue structurally so if he thinks the discomfort is not too much, why not?
#60 – Nah, I dont think Chipper is like that. I think Chipper wants to play because he thinks this team can play with anyone. He knows how good they can be.
I wonder if the Braves will have as much desire to bring players with personality problems (i.e. Sheffield) now that we have Fredi instead of Bobby
Smitty,
If you told me Heyward would be JD Drew, I’d be disappointed.
Everything I’ve ever heard about Heyward is that his potential is limitless. As good as JD Drew’s career numbers may be, if Heyward produces a facsimile of them you’re definitely setting a limit on the actualization of that potential. A respectable one perhaps, but not something befitting a once-in-a-generation player, and that’s what I was hoping for.
As others have stated, my concern now isn’t so much that his skills will erode, but that his body will betray him.
Is the mouthpiece slowly telling us that Lowe will get moved?
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/07/17/lowe-acknowledges-trade-possibility/?cp=15#comment-1223507
When they interviewed Chipper the other day, I was a little surprised over how excited he is about this team. He really thinks they have the attitude (and ability) to go all the way — and he gave that as the reason for his motivation to come back for this season. He was even high on “Trailer Park” Schafer (relating the story we’ve all heard about Schafer coming up to him at Spring training). It was encouraging to hear.
@65 Let’s hope so!
@57 – I hear ya. Drew, aside from his injury history, has been excellent. I guess that what we are talking about is top 10 players in all baseball type of elite.
The book on Heyward is ‘limitless potential’. Not J.D. Drew as a ceiling. Hell, I’d love for Heyward to produce like Drew. Hell, I’d love for the kid to just produce.
I am cautious about hoping for a super star as the last elite Braves outfielder was Andruw Jones.
Even if Lowe could be moved, he would bring us close to nothing in return, and there is no guarantee that Liberty Media will re-invest his money into the team. They might just cut payroll, like they have done before.
Andruw’s ceiling was Willie Mays. Instead, he elected to become fat and lazy. Loved him the first ten years or so, then hated him the last two.
Tom @ 70,
According to the experts, Andruw beat Willie in defense by around 100 runs saved. Andruw didn’t hit his ceiling and it is awfully hard to think it wasn’t partly because of lack of conditioning.
I still will always wonder if Andruw wasn’t 2 years older than his listing says. If you make that as an arbitrary adjustment, the career makes a lot more sense.
Ironically, his career arc is kind of like (not the type of hitter) Joe DiMaggio. Came up young. Played as a great all around player. Bad before his time.
@65, Thanks for the link. If you scroll down a little, you’ll find a quote from our old buddy Coach, picking a fight with somebody.
Cliff, what do you mean by Dimaggio was bad before his time?
I don’t think it is fair to compair Heyward to Joe D, Eddie Mathews, Hank Aaron, or Ted Williams.
Those guy were stupid good.
Sure, he has a shot to be very good. His chances of being great are better than Brooks Conrads. However, if you expect him to put up Williams/ Mathews numbers for his whole career, get ready to be disapointed.
My ideal comp for Heyward has been Willie McCovey.
And Andruw was never going to be Willie Mays. You’re right that he got fat, which shortened his defensive prime. In that area he was truly comparable to Mays, albeit for too brief a time. But Andruw had blind spots as a hitter from the very start that Mays didn’t have. Not that it’s any crime to say a player had less talent than Willie Mays, because that would describe pretty much every player in major league history with the exception of his own godson.
More from mouthpiece…
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2011/07/18/reasons-to-trade-lowe-and-reasons-not-to/
DOB – “It’s possible this could be his last start for the Braves. My guess is he’ll make at least one more before a deal goes down next week, but you never know.”
But then again, DOB did create the Furcal rule.
Mike Minor had better be ready to step it up.
Andruw could never catch a break. Even when he was in his late 20’s with a firmly established level of performance, in the minds of fans and to a larger extent the press, he under achieved.
I don’t doubt Jason Heyward is going to be good. But I am not annointing him as the next Chipper Jones either.
I am not holding my breath that we’ll actually be able to unload Derrick Lowe.
69- I’m OK with this. I think the current version of Minor is better than the current version of Lowe. If we could get a straight salary dump and get rid of Lowe I’d be happy.
Right now, regardless of what happens in the rest of his career, Andruw Jones has a Hall of Fame resume. He may not yet be electable – if he retired tomorrow he might be the type of player whom the Veterans Committee might have to induct – but he’s a Hall of Famer now.
Heyward will never have Andruw’s defensive gifts, but Andruw never had Heyward’s eye. If Jason’s next decade is as good as Andruw’s first decade with the Braves – in terms of overall value, defense plus offense – well, he’ll be a Hall of Famer too.
If Jason could put up an .800OPS the rest of this season Ill be happy. We can worry about the rest of his career later.
@80
I disagree wholeheartedly about Andruw’s HOF chances or his worthiness. He only had a half-dozen HOF-worthy offensive seasons, and even those were of the “lesser” HOF variety. His power will, and should, be partially discounted due to the era in which he played. His defensive rep outlasted his defensive peak, and if you have to guess whether that will be a positive or negative consideration, chances are it will end up being a negative.
I’d be very happy to be rid of Lowe, even if Liberty didn’t reinvest the remainder of Lowe’s salary for this season. My guess is that Minor could approximate Lowe’s 3.8 – 4 ERA pitching without too much trouble.
Additionally, I think now would be a perfect time to lock up Heyward to a long-term deal. Yes, he appears to be somewhat fragile, but my gut tells me that we’re at just about the low point of Heyward’s value (given his struggles this season). If we could lock Heyward into a deal similar to what Justin Upton got, that would be fantastic. I’d like JHey to play for the Braves for his entire career, and given the Braves’ current position as a mid-market payroll team they will have to be more smart/aggressive about locking up young talent if they want to keep the nucleus of star-quality talent intact.
No Mike Minor, please.
I miss Andruw.
Sansho, I’m not talking about Andruw’s likelihood of being elected, I’m talking about his Hall-worthiness. Because of his defensive greatness and offensive pretty-goodness, Andruw has had what I would consider to be a Hall of Fame career, even if the BBWAA — which has often tended to reward offense more than defense — doesn’t see him that way.
Andruw is borderline. If I had to guess right now, I’d say he’s out. On the other hand, Richie Ashburn is in.
What’s weird is that a lot of the players that are a little worse than Andruw aren’t even considered for the Hall. A lot of mostly-glove-but-can-hit types (Paul Blair, Garry Maddox, Mike Cameron) don’t sniff the hall. OTOH, Ashburn is in, and he didn’t have Andruw’s home runs, so I don’t know. It’s close.
@83 – Totally agree with a Heyward contract extension right now. He’s got to be feeling somewhat discouraged at this point in the season, so maybe he’d ignore his agent’s advice and sign something team friendly.
On a related note, the trade value series that’s concluding today at fangraphs has been potentially enlightening. (Apologies for bringing this up in advance) Yunel was left off the list of the top 50 players ranked by trade value, and the explanation from Dave Cameron was that front offices around the league are wary of his work ethic/attitude problems, yes, but also how he’ll respond to becoming rich. I frequently disagree with Cameron, and he may very well be wrong here, but he does have relationships with club execs, and it makes me feel somewhat better about the Yunel trade that Cox/Wren were maybe not the only people in the know who soured on Escobar, and that there might have been reasons beyond what the general public was privy to dump him for pennies (assuming Pastornicky doesn’t actually turn out almost as good as Escobar, which he well may).
Also, Heyward retained a top-10 ranking. That could just be Cameron demonstrating his man-crush, or it could reflect the opinions of various front offices around baseball that Heyward will be just fine. I prefer to believe the latter.
Good article on Brooksy:
http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201107/braves-infielder-brooks-conrad-looks-back-night-his-life-almost-fell-apart
#1
Richie Ashburn pretty much played 15 years in CF, hit over .300 and had an OBP very close to .400. He didn’t hit HRs, but, as a lead-off hitter in a lower-offense era, he was a valuable guy. He ain’t Tris Speaker or anything, but I’m alright with his inclusion in the HoF.
#25
Andruw? Don’t think he ever gets in, but does he deserve it? I… don’t… know.
Best defensive CF I’ve ever seen and (as mentioned) a good offensive CF, but that free-fall decline, esp. that shockingly awful year in LA, is tough to ignore. (Great conversation, though.)
#22
I’ll just have to hold onto the notion that Heyward’s playing hurt & he’s still learning on the job. Not gonna go crazy, gotta remain patient. I maintain faith in his future performance.
BTW, another month like this from Uggla & we might have to lose the “Ban the Dan” tag.
Andruw’s best offensive season by OPS+ (136 in ’05) would rank 133rd among HOFers who played at least 50% of the time in CF in that particular season. And since his OPS is so heavy on SLG, 133rd is doing him a favor.
The bottom tier of HOF CFs is Richie Ashburn, Max Carey, and Lloyd Waner. Waner is a joke, so we can dispense with him. Carey is borderline, but had longetivity and ten SB crowns to hang his hat on.
Ashburn and Andruw have identical 111 OPS+, but because Ashburn was an OBP guy, his offensive value was significantly greater. And while I recognize Andruw’s early defensive greatness, if you’re not as good a hitter as Richie Ashburn….
@89, Interesting article, despite the sometimes groan-worthy “college creative writing class” feel to it.
Ban the Dan needs to have a Proctor focus now.
oldtimer at 73,
Di Maggio came up at about 18. He played 13 major league seasons. He missed 3 in World War II. He retired at approximately 34. Some say he “went out on top” but many recent commentators have pointed out the down turn was obvious.
I wonder if anyone in the Proctor family is a doctor.
Nice little thing on Brooksy. I always liked him an appreciate what he does for the team. I didn’t expect they’d bring him back after last season, but they did, and he’s performed well. He’s like the Adam Dunn of back-up IFs, complete with the sub-par defense. 🙂
DOB tweeting about Proctor’s horrible numbers.
Is a release coming soon?
I think the team had 4 total losses during that 11 game span.
According to Peanut, we have a scout at the game tonight to scout Rockies bullpen. Is there not enough film footage out there of these guys?
What the other 25 players and staff couldnt evaluate the guy during this 4 game series?
If they’re gonna get a guy, I’d like to think they cared enough to scout him.
@101
Sure, it’s a good gesture, but is it really necessary? Minors? Sure. Majors. What’s the point?
Maybe theyll get Houston Street
Huston Street replacing Scott Proctor would be a nice upgrade.
I give Fredi credit for NOT bunting Schafer in the big inning.
Are they going to trade their closer? Would we want to bring in a career closer to pitch the sixth or seventh inning? Seems like a possible recipe for discontent. Belisle or Betancourt seems more likely.
18 years ago today, we got Fred McGriff and our lives changed for the better.
“Are they going to trade their closer?”
They’re ten games out in their division and even further back in the wild card. But the Braves probably don’t want to pay Street 7.5 million in 2012 to be a middle relief pitcher.
#Braves lineup: 1. Schafer cf, 2. Prado 3b, 3. McCann c, 4. Freeman 1b, 5. Uggla 2b, 6. Heyward rf, 7. Hinske lf, 8. Gonzalez ss, 9. Lowe
I’ve no idea when I will recap this thing.
Teams facing a rebuild trade their closers (unless they’re the Royals, who should have done it already), but the Rockies can bubble up and win that division in any given year. So there’s no reason for them to get rid of a core asset, unless they have a replacement waiting in the wings.
#94 are you talking Joe DiMaggio? He retired at 36. At age 35 he hit, .301/.394/.585 +151 OPS+. His final year he was hurt alot but still ended up with a 115 OPS+.
That Rays-Red Sox game last night needed Scott Proctor.
Scott Diamond starts tonight for the Twins.
I understand Andruw’s offensive numbers in context – but if being the arguably best CF to ever lace them up for half a dozen or more years, depending on how you measure these things doesn’t get you in, then it’s the hall of something else. Andruw was “famous”, and rightfully so in my opinion, and the hall would not be the worse for his inclusion.
Buddy Bell would have been famous, too, but for the teams he played on. He was an elite fielder at an important defensive position, and chalked up a 109 OPS+ over a longer career than Andruw will end up having. Who’s beating the drum for Buddy?
Part of my reticence to call Andruw a HOFer is I don’t believe the true value of defense has yet been determined. I do know that Andruw would be at or near the bottom of a list of modern day HOFers in terms of offensive contributions (non-SS or 2B division). And I look at the number of team wins that WAR claims can be chalked up to individual fielders with….dubiousness.
“Ban the Dan needs to have a Proctor focus now”
Scott Diamond
Scott Linebrink
Scott Proctor
Scott Spiezio
Scott Thorman
Ban the
ScatScott!The Greatest Baseball Infographics Ever Made
http://www.slate.com/id/2299464/entry/2299465/
@116, I certainly don’t find your opinion without merit, perhaps even suasively so – but forgive me if I avail myself of the Potter Stewart defense. I was a season ticket holder from 90 to 04, and Andruw did the most amazing things I ever saw. I mean really, it was that ridiculous. He and Bonds were the two most exciting athletes of all the players I watched. He feels like a HOFer to me.
@93
Block the Proc?
Heyward scratched and McLouth in right.
Word is, Heyward left his blankie on the team plane and was inconsolable. Needs a day to get himself together.
Bases loaded, no one out and probably not going to score.
Same old Braves.
Wow, that was incredibly poor luck.
HOLY CRAP!
Thanks, Rox.
“Wow, that was incredibly poor luck.”
And that was lucky.
Lowe figures that if you want a job done right, you’ve gotta do it yourself. And on the mound, when you want a job done wrong, you’ve got to do that yourself, too.
the universe is on our side.
With Gonzalez, McLouth and the Pitcher at 7, 8, and 9, I would strongly consider always walking Freeman, Uggla and Hinske to get to them.
GO BALL!!!!!!!! HECK YES.
Freddie is a beast right now.
Boom! This kid’s on fire!
FREDDIE!
You’ve got power Freddie.
Freddie is Mr. Rocky
Freddie is locked in.
Damn.
Dayum, Hinske.
Wow…
Hinske! Doing his Hinske thing. 🙂
Freddiebomb!
It’s awesome to see how hard and far he hits the ball with that short swing.
Heyward got hit on his toe yesterday by 99 mph pitch. Stayed in game but likely worse today.
I refuse to get excited when up by as many as 49 runs at Coors Field. Hate to be Debbie Downer, but that game last year when Bravos were up 11-0 (I think) and we LOST?
Keep the pedal on the metal Braves.
Hinski is not a bad sub.
You go into a bar and order a Freddiebomb…what does the bartender give you?
I’m thinking something with Jaeger & a splash of wooden bat.
The Marlins are leading the Mets 3-0 in the 8th. If the Mets lose, they’ll be only 0.5 games ahead of last place. Hope they make it there.
@146
I’m thinking there’s a green olive on a toothpick involved. Green for rookie, toothpick for what the bat looks like in his hands.
Thank you Rockies defense. Keep ’em coming.
Was snitker sending him before the bounce?
did the announcer just say that snitker was waving hinskie home the whole way? wow. just. wow.
@143 – is Heyward seriously out with a sore toe? jeez
@151
It looked like it, the ball could have run backwards to home plate and still have beaten Hinske.
Not sure exactly where ball hit JH’s foot but it hit him like a hammer.
Remember when our crappy CF got hit in the face, and suffered a sinus fracture, and didn’t miss a game?
I’m not particularly upset with Heyward sitting out. Getting hit right on the foot, no bounces, with a 99 mph fastball has got to leave him hobbled. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can hardly put weight on the foot.
That might actually be a safe lead in Colorado…. but is it safe enough not to bring in O’Ventbrel yet?
Snitker was sending Hinske, yes. That’s why Cargo messed up the play–he couldn’t believe his luck, and was readying to throw instead of watching the ball into his glove.
I’m not particularly upset about it either. Days off for Heyward are days we can get one more stick in the lineup
Nicely done by Lowe. I’ll take 6 innings and 1 run any day.
If the Braves really are looking to move Lowe, this start should help.
As bad as Heyward is at the plate right now, I dont really care if he’s in there or not.
Bigger question – Why did Halladay get pulled after only 4IP tonight?
Come on Lowe, you’re supposed to be impressing the other teams.
@162 Apparently he was having a real hard time with the heat, maybe he’s just feeling sick.
I hate this park.
This park sucks.
I hate Coors Field.
Correction: I love that this park has cheap bleacher seats. I hate everything else about this park.
I like that it’s relatively full of enthusiastic supporters on a Monday night. But yeah, to hell with this place.
Whew, well, that wasn’t really the Braves’ fault.
We should start playing a rover, softball style
Schafer: Ball Hog. I mean, it’s great that he could get to that, and he’s all awesome in center and everything, but he didn’t need to run a mile and a half there.
The wind blew that last popup way into left field. He had to keep going once he called for it.
I dont mind Schafer being aggressive and going to get things in CF, however I do mind that he hasnt learned how to hit the ball on the ground. 3K’s tonight
We, along with many other teams, have checked in on Beltran (according to Heyman).
http://mobile.twitter.com/si_jonheyman/status/93128234278993920
@173
I just mind that he’s not very good.
Im sure the Braves are looking to move Lowe and then will turn their attention to Beltran. I still think Beltran is like the Lowe situation. Someone may take the contract, but wont give up a prospect if they do.
@174 – I like it if they eat the salary and we don’t give up anyone better than Delgado. Maybe a Carlos Perez, J.J. Hoover type package.
the Mets have already said they will pay most of his remaining salary in order to get back better prospects
#178 – Id rather them not.
I’m okay with Schafer. Put me on the record, so when he’s hitting .220/.299/.597, you can point the finger at me.
Even if we could work out an arrangement for Beltran…that’s a HIGH risk move, given the $$$, what we’d give up, and how many games he’s missed.
For once, I’ll give Wren some credit, he’s got a tough team make-up to make a significant move right now.
I wonder if Fredi was secretly relieved when EOF gave up the single; it sort of justifies him bringing in Venters/Kimbrel, which he was gonna do anyway.
Also, I feel like if FJM were still active, they would have done one of their fake name things on “Rex Brothers.” Hard to believe that’s not a cartoon character.
Atlanta Black Sox? What the hell is going on here? Can nobody throw a strike? Why does Johnny keep throwing in the dirt? Fire Fredi?
I don’t see how Beltran would fit in considering that he cannot play center anymore.
Jon Paul Morosi is an extremely bad reporter.
#183
I was thinking the same thing
@183 and 185 – His range would be below average, but his offense would more than make up for it. And Schafer can replace him in the late innings.
Beltran would be an amazing addition. It’s not like Heyward, Prado, and Chipper are all going to stay healthy for the rest of the season.
For the record, Halladay was pulled early due to heat exhaustion tonight.
@187 – that too.
His .893OPS would be just fine in CF.
I would guess Betancourt is the guy the Braves are scouting.
Betancourt replacing Proctor would be nice also.
Moylan tweet earlier…
“Rockies just duck farted their way back into this game!!!”
Why are we so certain Beltran would be a CF in Atlanta? It’s not like the Heyward/Wilkin Ramirez monster is tearing the cover off the ball in RF, either.
As I’ve noted before, there are ample starts at LF/RF/3B/2B to justify the acquisition of a corner OF.
Additionally, I don’t see the Braves giving any of our prospects to the Mets.
@194
I’m not certain at all.
But not sure if I see Heyward riding the pine at this point. That might be what happens, but I don’t think it is likely.
Wren took a chance on sending Frenchy to the Mets…I think he’d be okay with sending prospects to the Mets for a potential key cog to a WS run.
Man, this ump is really squeezing Kimbrel. C’monnnnn….
@196 – that’s really the main issue. As it has been said, there is room to add a corner OF. The fact that he can fake CF when everyone is healthy and productive is a bonus. We would be reluctant to trade good prospects as we should be. But I would be comfortable pulling the trigger so long as its guys like Perez, Hoover, Mycal Jones, etc.
If Carlos Beltran was slapping an 850-900 OPS up in RF I’d be fine with sending Heyward to Gwinnett to get his shit together. He’s a 21 year old kid who is currently hitting like a 21 year old kid. Hype doesn’t win pennants.
By the way, that Kimbrel kid is pretty good.
With Prado on this team, we can basically acquire anything not a 1B,SS, or C and there’ll be significant playing time for that player.
never in doubt
I’m glad you people aren’t GM’s. A lot of you think you’re dealing with chess pieces, but you’re not. No one is considering sending Heyward anywhere but back out to right field, because barring injury, anything else at this point would be profoundly stupid.
Jason Heyward isn’t granted a starting position in the major leagues just because he looks really, really buff in the uniform. It’s a production based sport.
Whew! Thank God that’s over!
I really hate that friggin’ ballpark! I don’t know how Rockies fans handle playing half their games in the place. Every game you play with a lead, no matter how big, is like a nighttime trip down an icy mountain road.
Heyward is currently roughly league average as a hitter. That’s not hitting like a 21 year old kid, that’s hitting like an average veteran, and he’s coming off a phenomenally good year. If he’s costing the team wins, which he’s not, they’re not wins that we’re especially missing, as we’re still a top 5 team in baseball, record- and run differential-wise. I just completely do not understand the tendency of some to piss all over the better players on a team. It’s like when David Wright and Beltran, not the throngs of detritus filling out their lineup, took heat for the Mets recent troubles. Heyward’s good even while currently playing below his potential. He’s got nothing left to prove in the minors, and the team’s not suffering with him playing right. Leave the kid alone and let him work through his problems.
For the record, I agree with those preaching patience with Heyward. But he is hurt a lot and so is Chipper, so an addition of Beltran would leave him in the corner OF most of the time anyway. And you can live with his defense in CF because it wouldn’t be too bad and because his bat makes up for it.
Also, it would be good to keep him away from the Phillies.
We are 18 games over .500, keep rolling!
The Heyward ride has not been as smooth as we have hoped, but I am 100% confidence the ride will end up smoother than the one we had with Andruw.
Just think of the possibilities when everyone is healthy…
LF Prado
RF Heyward
3B Jones
C Pimpbot
CF Beltran
1B Freeman
2B Uggla
SS Gonzalez
Forget Beltran in CF. He cannot do it anymore. In the beginning of the year, he could barely play 2 games in a row in RF. (He hasn’t played one game in CF this year.)
I remember listening to the Mets beat reporter Ed Coleman on WFAN this spring, a guy who’s covered the Mets every day for nearly 20 years, and he was asked about Beltran in CF, and he said, “That’s just out of the question now.”
He’s a corner OF/DH these days.
If we were to trade for him, I agree that I’d rather pick up the tab & give the Mets someone back who’s probably not going to hurt us down the line.
We need to off-load Lowe for us to be able to afford Beltran’s salary.
Well, even if he can’t play center he would still help. The issue is the price. And I think we could get them to pick up the tab and we have the minor league depth to put together a competitive package without giving up Teheran, Vizcaino, Delagado or Minor. We should do it. Again, it also keeps him from the Phillies.
Delgado, not Delagado
Regarding sending Heyward back to the minors… as Bill James has said, “If you treat your superstars disrespectfully, you soon find that you don’t have any superstars.”
Why sending Heyward to minor unless it’s a rehab assignment? Unlike Frenchy, he has absolutely nothing to prove in minor.
@214 I would never send any of our pitching prospects to the Mets. Never.
At least if we sent a pitching prospect to the Mets, we would be guaranteed that prospect wouldn’t hurt us in the future.
@218 I don’t mind sending them Derek Lowe for Beltran straight-up, ha.
Not to jinx the guy, but have you noticed that Craig Kimbrel hasn’t given up a run in more than a month?
Last time he did, it was June 11 @ Houston.
Since then, he’s 1-0 with 11 Sv in 16 IP/16 G with 4 H, 5 BB & 24 K.
If this keeps up, will Freeman or Kimbrel be more likely for the ROY award?
@220 Thanks!!! A blown save is coming very soon!!!
220, great job. We are DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!
@216
Yup. Can’t jerk people around out of frustration. Heyward may not be entitled to a starting position, but when the team called him up and installed him in the lineup at age 20, some on-the-job training was clearly implied.
Beltran is starting to sound like a square peg. Bourn is my guy, over Pence. No “faking” CF with him.
When I think of Michael Bourn, I think of what Charlie Manuel recently said:
Charlie Manuel has an idea of what sort of player he’d like to see the Phillies acquire at the trade deadline. He’ll take a reliever or a righthanded bat or whatever Ruben Amaro Jr. wants – as long as the player meets one condition.
“I want somebody good,” Manuel said. “If we are going to get somebody – I’ll tell you guys like I would tell them – I want somebody good. Somebody that is going to help us. I don’t want what we’ve already got.”
What’s the point of trading for something you already have or a player that isn’t any good? Schafer and McLouth can surely match Bourn’s career .691 OPS, 87 OPS+ and .356 slugging percentage. Bourn also has one home run in 2011.
Hunter Pence would be a noticeable upgrade though.
You conveniently ignore every positive thing Bourn brings to the table, which happen to be the exact things we lack. He’s the best defensive CF in the league not named McCutchen and the best baserunner in the league not named Reyes. Schafer and McLouth are nowhere near the player Bourn is. WAR (for what it’s worth) has Michael Bourn as the sixth-best position player in the NL. I don’t know that that’s necessarily true, but just the fact he can be mistaken for it puts him miles ahead of what you describe.
Trade scenarios revisited:
1. Find out what Tigers’ low-level prospect the Mets might be interested in.
2. Trade Derek Lowe to the Tigers for Magglio Ordonez+low level prospect.
3. Flip the Tigers’ prospect + JJ Hoover and Schafer to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.
Lineup:
1. Prado 2. Beltran 3. McCann 4. Chipper 5. Freeman 6. Uggla 7. Heyward 8. Gonzalez
Betancourt’s ERA is high, probably Coors field related, and we have discussed on here ad nausem, ERA is a flawed stat, but his K/BB is outstanding.
I vote for Betancourt for bullpen. He throws a lot of strikes. His stuff is maybe a touch down from prior years, but he has plenty of gas left.
I just have a hunch pre – July 31 will not be as active for anybody, but the waiver wire period will be nuts with activity. Too many teams are still ‘in it’.
@228,
I agree somewhat. I think it will be quiet up to the last few days.
Betancourt would be a nice addition as a sixth/seventh inning guy. It would be nice if our starters could go alittle longer too.
@225, I think the point is that McLouth can match that, but he isn’t particularly good in CF. Schafer can exceed Bourn’s defense, but he can’t hit the line you posted.
I see your point, that if we want a defensive no-hit CF, we already have one in Schafer. The problem is that Schafer is so atrocious at the plate, Bourn might be an overall improvement. He’s certainly an improvement defensively over McLouth.
I haven’t really looked into it, but I think most people see a Bourn as a combination of Schafer’s defense and McLouth’s offense.
Pence, on the other hand, is a really good right fielder who can hit well. I imagine he would be better than McLouth at CF with much better batting numbers. While it’s kind of up in the air in my mind if Bourn would be an upgrade, Pence would be a serious upgrade.
I think Pence would be great, but I am not sure the Astros will move him for anything less than Minor, Delgatto and a B prospect, if not more. Bourne can probably be had much cheaper and would fill a huge hole for less.
I think if we get a solid leadoff hitter who can play good D in center our line up will be fine.
Then we would just need to address a RH bench bat and a RH reliever.
This team doesn’t need much to put it over the top. No reason to sell a good bit of the future on three possitions that should be cheap to fill.
i have to say, i don’t think we need to mess with this team. i know i’m saying that after a Lowe win and a night when we scored 7 runs, but this is a solid team! Lowe is a league average pitcher, i’ll give you that. but he’s streaky. as recently as last september, he was one of the best pitchers in the league for the month. He’s basically insurance. What if, say Hanson or Hudson gets injured down the stretch. wouldn’t it be nice to have a solid veteran already on the team instead of having to deal with growing pains from Teheran in a playoff scenario?
The pitching has been awesome all year, and now we really look like we have some hitters, with Freeman and Uggla rounding into form, and yes our Outfield is limited, but i think i’d bet on us in the playoffs right now.
I agree with Smitty — I don’t want to pay the necessary price for a guy we’d end up shoehorning into a position he’s unaccustomed to. We need a CF and a leadoff hitter. Bourn is a CF and a leadoff hitter.
He was one of the best pitchers in the league for the month. – Troy
You nailed it right there. For the 2.5years that Lowe has been here he’s only pitched like he suppose to for ONE month. Last night was a typical Lowe start. Looked great and then hit a wall. 6.1IP 4ER isnt great and I think Minor/Teheran can do that moving forward. I dont think we can expect better from Lowe since it seems every outing is the same.
You dont mess with the majority of this team right now, but you do take advantage of a weak SP pool at the deadline. Lowe is a #4-5 starter on this team making $15mil. The Braves also need an upgrade over Julio Lugo, Scott Proctor, and they need a RH outfielder. You dont stand pat when this team only needs a couple of moves to be borderline great.
I don’t understand the mindset of not messing with this team. Sure, we have a great record but CF, RH relief, and a RH bench bat are all obvious weaknesses. If the asking price is Lowe and any prospect not named Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, or Salcedo, what’s the harm?
Our coaches are mindnumbingly stupid…
http://tinyurl.com/3z4aaok
#234 – Over an extended period of time, much less 2.5 years, no pitcher is supposed to be as good as Derek Lowe was last September. It’s never been done. Lowe may not be quite as good as he’s supposed to be based on his contract, but he’s not that far off. Atlanta is just lucky to have a ton of better, cheaper, options.
Lowe is worth about 60-65% of his contract. Even with his great MONTH he was only worth 2.7WAR.
@236, I choose to ignore the first three paragraphs of that article and continue to believe that they’re playing Schafer because he’s a crazy good fielder, and, using the knowledge gained by studying baseball as their profession, they judge that to be more valuable than his terrible hitting.
If I were to pay attention to those paragraphs, though, I would be discouraged.
I think people will likely always be disappointed with Heyward unless he becomes Hank Aaron, in the same way that people were disappointed with Mantle for much of his career. And that’s just unrealistic. I bet no one expected Aaron or Mays to be as good as they were. You just can’t project that. Mantle had those kinds of expectations so that, as good as he was, he was considered a disappointment for much of his career.
I think you have to always try to upgrade the team, unless you are the 1939 Yankees. Even so, who knows what will happen in the playoffs? But it’s not that easy if you don’t want to trade your top prospects.
@236: Oh My God! And, of course, what you intuit is so much more important than the actual numbers.
Start Beachy for fantasy tonight?
I like him, but it’s his 1st start at Coors…
Recap, finally.
This might make Beltran more attractive…
“As noted by Cot’s Baseball Contracts, $22 million of Beltran’s $119 million deal is deferred. Specifically, $5.5 million per year between 2008 and 2011. That makes his 2011 salary a more reasonable $13 million and that prorated after the trade deadline is approximately $4.5 million.”