Braves Journal

There’s no really easy or fun way to say this, so I’ll just say it: I have cancer.

Now, there’s cancer and there’s cancer, and what I have appears to be totally treatable. The story is intermittently amusing and when this is over I’ll probably write it all up. I’ll be fine, in the long run. In the short run, I am going to need surgery and then chemotherapy. There are going to be times when I’m not around for awhile. If it happens during the season, I’ll scare up someone to fill in while I’m out.

I’ll repeat — I’ll be fine. In the long run. In the short run, if I disappear for a week, or if I seem snappish, just assume that’s why. At any rate, this is all Francoeur’s fault.

Javier Vazquez Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

A longtime target of John Schuerholz’s, finally acquired by Frank Wren. I’m more excited by the deal now than I was at the time. Vazquez was incredibly unlucky in 2008; his ERA was elevated due to bad luck and bad defense; he probably should have had an ERA in the mid-threes, not the mid-fours, and his peripherals were basically the same as in 2007, when he went 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA.

Vazquez was one of the last of the stars produced by the Expos machine when the Expos were playing farm system for the rest of baseball. After a couple of rough years when he first came up, he was terrific from 2000-2003, going 50-45 (they were 251-302 when he didn’t get the decision) with a 3.65 ERA. The Yankees traded three players, including Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera, to get him before the 2004 season.

I think that 2004 shaped Vazquez’s image in the minds of baseball fans. He started off gangbusters and was 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA at the break, making his only All-Star team. But he collapsed in the second half, going 4-5/6.92, and was bounced from the rotation at one point. In the postseason, he made only one start, and did not pitch well in that or in two relief appearances, though he did win Game 3 of the ALCS in relief; he gave up a grand slam homer to Johnny Damon (after Kevin Brown walked the bases loaded) in the second inning of Game 7 that essentially ended the series.

Since the whole thing was obviously his fault, the Yankees traded him to the D-Backs with two other players for Randy Johnson. Arizona was a bad fit for Vazquez, whose primary problem throughout his career has been home runs. He did not pitch that badly, actually; his ERA of 4.42 was just about the average in that park, but he gave up 35 homers, the second-most in the league, the most in the non-Eric Milton division. Traded to the White Sox (for three players, including Chris Young), he was basically average again in 2006. As I mentioned above, he was pretty great in 2007, and pretty unlucky in 2008.

Vazquez is a strikeout pitcher, ninth among active players; he has never led the league, but has finished in the top ten eight times, including fourth the last three years in a row. He is also a workhorse, who has thrown more than 200 innings eight of the last nine years. Both of these were desperately needed on a team of finesse pitchers who rarely saw the seventh inning. JC rates Vazquez as the seventh-most-valuable pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons; ahead of him are Webb, Sabathia, Halladay, Santana, Haren, and Oswalt.

Vazquez’s biggest problem has been home runs; I wish Leo, who did a great job teaching his pitchers how to avoid homers, had gotten a chance to work with him. Most home runs allowed, Vazquez’s career (1998-2008)

HOMERUNS HR
1 Javier Vazquez 300
2 Livan Hernandez 291
3 Jamie Moyer 289
4 Jeff Suppan 276
5 Eric Milton 265
6 Tim Wakefield 261
7 Woody Williams 257
8 Randy Johnson 246
9 Curt Schilling 242
10 Steve Trachsel 238

Come on, 2009, it’s not like you have a hard act to follow.

Open thread. I will try to get back to real writing soon.

Braves announce 2009 minor-league coaching staff | ajc.com

Well, that’s not much of an excuse for a new thread, but it’s a slow news time. Merry Christmas.

Chipper Jones Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Finally, finally, led the league in something — in fact, two things, batting average and on-base percentage — in 2008. It was about time. You don’t hit .364 without a little luck, but luck is the residue of design. Chipper is a smart hitter, he strikes out less often than he walks, he isn’t afraid to take a walk if the pitcher is working around him, and he really doesn’t have any holes in his swing. Hence, he’s become a legitimate .320-.330 hitter, and once in a while a .330 hitter will get some extra singles.

Chipper was a monster in the first half, hitting .376/.472/.614. But he got hurt, and playing through injuries his power basically disappeared, with only four homers after the break, though he still hit for average and his walks actually went up. Injuries have become the central fact of Chipper’s career in the last few seasons. As his defense at third base has improved, arguments for moving him to first base have come down to trying to keep him in the lineup, but most of his injuries have come at the plate or on the bases… On those bases, he is surprisingly effective, perfect in four steal attempts last season. Over the last five years he is 22 of 25.

Chipper’s on-base percentage was the second-best by any qualifying third baseman since 1901. (John McGraw had a .505 OBP in 1900!)

OBA YEAR OBA
1 Wade Boggs 1988 .476
2 Chipper Jones 2008 .470
3 Wade Boggs 1987 .461
4 George Brett 1980 .454
5 Wade Boggs 1986 .453
6 Wade Boggs 1985 .450
7 Jim Thome 1996 .450
8 Wade Boggs 1983 .444
9 Mel Ott 1938 .442
10 Chipper Jones 1999 .441

Casey Kotchman Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Ack. In all honesty, one of the worst regulars in the league. He’s a slick-fielding first baseman who doesn’t hit for power or walk and doesn’t hit for enough of an average to compensate, basically a new Doug Mienkiewicz with an easier to spell name. A good glove man in center or catcher or middle infield with slightly-below-average offense is a valuable player, at third base or even corner outfield something you can live with. At first, it’s big trouble. Kotchman has to either start hitting more homers — like, double what he has, minimum — or hit over .300. This .269/.336/.413 stuff (his career line) just won’t cut it.

Kotchman looked, in the minor leagues, like he would be a Mark Grace or Wally Joyner type of player, a high-average hitter with midrange power and a decent walk rate. So far in the majors, he’s been Rico Brogna, a complete nonentity who looks good in a uniform. Some of that may be the fault of the Angels and their “hitting” coach, Mickey Hatcher, who never saw a pitch he didn’t think someone should swing at. While Terry Pendleton has that reputation, his charges have in fact been pretty patient, and there were signs last year that he was getting through to Kotchman. Most importantly, after walking just 18 times in 398 PA in Anaheim, Kotchman walked the same number (and one more unintentionally, 16 to 15) in just 175 PA in Atlanta. He didn’t turn that into any production, but one thing at a time. He also cut down on his GIDP a little, another sign that he’s not just swinging at anything, but trying to find something he can actually hit. Kotchman is a rehab project in many ways, and if his pitch recognition can be fixed the player who was a top prospect may reemerge.

Is, in fact, a really good glove man at first base, and could win the Gold Glove in 2009. Slow, like most players of his type, eight career SB, seven career CS.

Worst Secondary Averages, major league first basemen, 2007-08 (min. 800 PA)

SECONDARY AVERAGE SEC
1 Ryan Garko .243
2 Casey Kotchman .249
3 James Loney .252
4 Lyle Overbay .278
5 Mike Jacobs .308
6 Kevin Millar .310
7 Derrek Lee .314
8 Richie Sexson .315
9 Adam LaRoche .318
10 Justin Morneau .326

Furcal says no to Braves, returns to Dodgers | ajc.com

This would never have happened to John Schuerholz. Frank Wren is not John Schuerholz, and right now he’s been humiliated. I honestly don’t see how he doesn’t wind up a laughingstock, and he basically has to do something dramatic and fantastic or he will be unable to function effectively as general manager. Maybe I’m overreacting, but I don’t think so. I think that Wren has always been perceived as weak, overshadowed by the manager he inherited and the former general manager who is still over him in the team’s organization chart, subject to distant owners with whom he has no direct contact. He is probably right to be upset; from all appearances, the Furcal camp violated normal operating practices. If a team backed out on a player like this, there would probably be a union grievance, and they would likely win. At the same time, Wren still appears weak, and complaining about it does not help this perception.

My April Fool’s joke this year was about Schuerholz firing Wren and taking over the job again. To be honest, I think there’s a reasonable chance — say, one in five — that this actually happens sometime in the next 15 months. I think that there is a nearly even chance that Wren is replaced by somebody within that time frame.

Furcal acquisition could trigger trade for pitcher | ajc.com

So I’ll formalize it and say that Rafael Furcal, prodigal infielder, is back. They should at least sign Marcus Giles to a minor league deal to keep him company or something. At any rate, Furcal’s deal is apparently three years, with an option year he should attain if he’s able to play at all. Furcal will, if he plays as well as he did in 2004-05, wind up the deal as the best middle infielder in Atlanta history, which right now could be him, Giles, or Jeff Blauser. I ranked Giles highest when I did my Top 44, but I can’t really state with any conviction that those rankings are justified.

Peanut is currently claiming that the Braves are planning to use Furcal at second and KJ in left field. This is such a poor use of resources that I can’t quite buy it, but this is the team that gave the lion’s share of the corner outfield ABs last year to Jeff Francoeur and Gregor Blanco, so you never know.

However, it seems more likely that Yunel Escobar is on the trading block, either for a putative ace starting pitcher or a slugging corner outfielder.

Dave Ross Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

So, who is this guy? Ross is a Georgia native, from Bainbridge, who went to high school in Tallahassee and went to college at both Auburn and Florida. (Freak.) He never did anything at Auburn (he was there for Tim Hudson’s last year, and may have caught him) but had a big year in Gainesville, and the Dodgers drafted him in the seventh round in 1998. He sort of meandered up the chain, not doing anything to draw attention to himself either way, until he put up typically inflated numbers at Las Vegas in 2002, getting himself a callup to the big club.

Ross hit ten homers as Lo Duca’s backup in 2003, easily outperforming the Dodgers’ “all-star”. But he went Corky in 2004, hitting .170/.253/.291, and before the 2005 season was sold — not traded, sold — to the Pirates. Ross played 2005 for the Pirates and Padres, then was traded to the Reds before the 2006 season. He had a career year, hitting .255/.353/.579 with 21 homers in 247 AB. The Reds, being the Reds, signed him to a two-year deal for $4.54 million and made him the regular. He hit 17 homers in 2007 but also hit .202, and was released in midseason of 2008. The Red Sox, desperate for anything resembling a catcher, signed him, but he went 1-8 in limited duty.

Ross’ career batting average is .222. Batting average is overrated, but you simply aren’t going to be productive hitting .222, not in today’s game. He does have power, and he will take a walk, and if he hits .250 he’s a very valuable reserve player whom you could play regularly if you’re not too particular. On the other hand, I could have said some of the same things about Corky Miller, who played for some of the same teams (the Reds, the Red Sox) and look what happened there… I’m sure that Ross has a good defensive reputation. Catchers who hit .222 always do. He does have a pretty good arm, or at least has thrown out 38 percent of basestealers (87 of 228) and threw out 42 percent the two years he was a semi-regular for Cincinnati. Has three career triples, no career stolen bases, rarely grounds into a double play, looks to be a good bunter. Basically, there’s evidence that he’s a good “little things” player, and real power, but that .222 is a great big bad thing.

The Braves at some point in the nineties apparently decided that the one thing that they don’t want in a backup catcher is a half-decent batting average. Career batting averages for Braves catchers, min. 50 PA, since the strike:

PLAYER AVG PA
1 Brian McCann .297 1821
2 Johnny Estrada .291 939
3 Javier Lopez .289 4032
4 Jarrod Saltalamacchia .284 153
5 Eddie Perez .251 1151
6 Charlie O’Brien .227 233
7 Brayan Pena .221 116
8 Greg Myers .210 96
9 Todd Pratt .207 152
10 Paul Bako .205 220
11 Henry Blanco .202 415
12 Fernando Lunar .185 60
13 Clint Sammons .175 62
14 Corky Miller .138 96

Ross will fit right in.

Brian McCann Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Pretty impressive. Brian wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2006, but that’s largely a function of a few singles that didn’t drop in this time. His walk rate was slightly higher and his isolated power only a little bit lower (fewer homers but more doubles, seventh in the league) and he’s established that this is his true level, and that 2007 was an injury year. He’s the best catcher in the league, and the question of the best catcher in baseball is between him and Mauer.

The most worrisome thing is workload. Brian caught in 138 games last year (also playing in seven other games where he just pinch-hit). Six of those games were in “relief”, pinch-hitting for Corky Miller or Clint Sammons and staying in the game. Those names give the clue as to why Brian played so much; the reserves were so awful that the Braves were usually losing when they played, and if the game was close enough he’d eventually pinch-hit for them. The season wore on him; though his batting averages stayed constant, his power basically disappeared in the last two months of the season, when he hit just three homers in August and none in September or October. Competent reserve play is a must.

McCann is painfully slow, of course, but is one of the smartest baserunners on the team. In addition to his triple last year, he was 5-5 on stolen base attempts… Gets a lot of grief for his fielding that is probably not deserved. He’s not a great fielder, but he’s not a disaster, either, and while his throwing hasn’t been great, it’s not any worse than most catchers these days. He should do better, though.

Career extra base hits for a catcher through age 24:

EXTRA BASE HITS EBH
1 Johnny Bench 308
2 Ivan Rodriguez 237
3 Ted Simmons 225
4 Joe Torre 196
5 Brian McCann 192
6 Fred Carroll 189
7 Gary Carter 165
8 Frankie Hayes 161
9 Butch Wynegar 148
10 Earl Williams 147